California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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Isn't California currently experiencing a massive and rare natural disaster? Seems like this launch could and should have been delayed.

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With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

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https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

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Looks like this potential self-funder is getting in as a Democrat, her pollster is Lake Research which has a middling reputation at best and is the firm that tends to get lower-tier Democratic candidates especially in statewide races.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1669334397814996994?s=20

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The fact that we're about to suffer through a news cycle of disingenuous people using this terrible news to justify "increasing concerns" about Biden's age is predictably ghastly and of course sickening. RIP to an icon - my mother loved this woman and was deeply inspired by her, and for me that's a blessing.

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Newsom should appoint Michelle Steel or Young Kim.

Take a reliable vote from McCarthy, force a special election in a flippable district, force the NRSC to compete in California of all places in 2024 (they would be required to, at the very least, split-match eligible expenditures with Steel's/Kim's campaign), gives him bipartisan cred when he runs for President, plus he still gets to say he appointed a woman of color.

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I've gone ahead and written a rough draft of a statement for Gavin Newsom that he can feel free to use:

"A few years ago, I pledged that, if tasked with the duty to make another appointment to one of California's U.S. Senate seats, I would name an African-American woman to the seat. At the time, it was clear to me that this was an absolute necessity. The ascendence of then-Senator Kamala Harris to the Vice Presidency had left the United States Senate without representation for Black women, something that I and many others found, and still find, unacceptable.

Fortunately, since I made that pledge nearly two and a half years ago, recent developments in U.S. Senate races in states like Delaware, Maryland, and potentially more to come have made it a near certainty that it will be the voters who will rectify this problem. I'm also cognizant of the fact that, for what is now the second time I can remember, a Black woman is a major, viable candidate for the U.S. Senate right here at home in our own upcoming election. I hope all Californians will join me in celebrating this incredible milestone.

I'm also cognizant of the fact that the first round of voting in our upcoming U.S. Senate election is far too close for comfort - less than half a year away - for me to unduly influence the democratic process by giving a candidate in that election an unfair advantage with an appointment to the seat.

That is why I'm incredibly pleased to share that former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has agreed to briefly come out of retirement to serve out the remainder of the late, great Senator Feinstein's term. Senator Boxer and Senator Feinstein long enjoyed a strong working relationship and friendship. She will return to the Senate with seniority, and there is nobody better to manage the transition from Senator Feinstein to our new Senator who will be elected next year, while also serving Californians ably and with distinction, than her."

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Also, something should probably be done about the poster who is morbidly obsessed with Barbara Lee's death.

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This is a virtually impossible pick for basically any Democrat - Lee included - to criticize.

Newsom running circles around his critics here.