Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1577006943499350016?t=BS1Y6bgBf2VS2MUQsf3...

Not so long ago...

"Omg I beg Mr. Musk plz give starlink"

This is why Zelensky is responding with a poll rather than something more like Melnyk's post - and why the likes of Melnyk need to be told to pipe down. Starlink, by all accounts, has been and will continue to be useful, so Musk should either be convinced in private or his poasting should be ignored.

[rc18]

Looks like the Russians have evacuated Northeast Kherson Oblast. The towns along the Inhulets like Davydiv Brid and the Oleksandrivkas have been liberated.

[afleitch]

This is more of a general observation than anything special going on right now, but the obsessively homophobic cast to current Russian anti-NATO rhetoric is really something. At least in the bad old days the CAPITALIST SWINE terms of abuse had a vestigial legitimate point smothered deep within them.

Given what we know about homophobic rhetoric, bots, paid grifters and disinformation campaigns in recent years across the west, Russia is currently high on it's own supply.

It's why you got such an unfiltered 'online' speech from Putin during his pretendy annexation speech.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577275312513032193?s=20&t=xiLekb9Q...

[Person Man]

This is more of a general observation than anything special going on right now, but the obsessively homophobic cast to current Russian anti-NATO rhetoric is really something. At least in the bad old days the CAPITALIST SWINE terms of abuse had a vestigial legitimate point smothered deep within them.

Given what we know about homophobic rhetoric, bots, paid grifters and disinformation campaigns in recent years across the west, Russia is currently high on it's own supply.

It's why you got such an unfiltered 'online' speech from Putin during his pretendy annexation speech.

I see a pattern here between this and FSB torture reported to be heavily centered around butt stuff.

[Virginiá]

[Virginiá]

At this rate, Ukraine will soon be right on top of the Nova Kharkova dam crossing, and if that gets taken, Russia's ability to supply the Kherson grouping will be significantly degraded even in its already degraded state. I don't think Russia's positions on the west bank will be sustainable at all at that point.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1577280165377638400

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At this rate, Ukraine will soon be right on top of the Nova Kharkova dam crossing, and if that gets taken, Russia's ability to supply the Kherson grouping will be significantly degraded even in its already degraded state. I don't think Russia's positions on the west bank will be sustainable at all at that point.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1577280165377638400

Taking lots of land west of the Dnieper, especially along the Inhulets (which has been used as a defensive line) is good news for Ukraine, but this should be kept in perspective.

On the one hand, a smaller Russian presence west of the river means interdiction of supplies is going to be easier for Ukraine. It's also likely the defenses further back are not as strong as the prepared defenses Ukraine just broke through.

On the other hand, the frontline is currently shorter than it was thanks to the Russian retreats and the garrison west of the river has a smaller area to supply and defend. This means manpower could be less of an issue for Russia. Though supply may now be harder for them, they are probably going to need slightly fewer supplies than they did before. All of the newly liberated territory is extremely rural, so it's not like the Kharkiv offensive in which lots of people have been freed.

If they get to the crossing, they'll at least have freed Beryslav, which seems to be one of the few significant towns occupied west of the Dnieper. "The city of Dadyiv Brid," as propagandists on both sides put it, is a very generous overstatement for a village with a pre-war population of ~1.2k.

Edit: what I find striking about the Kherson counteroffensive is how many T-62s the Russian defenders in it seem to be using. They form a much greater proportion of the losses than on other fronts; perhaps they were specifically assigned to units deployed to Kherson for logistical reasons. They, (most likely) their parts and their ammunition are all lighter than the equivalents for T-64/72/80/90 tanks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How ironic, Russia annexes territory that they lose three days later.

[Storr]

At this rate, Ukraine will soon be right on top of the Nova Kharkova dam crossing, and if that gets taken, Russia's ability to supply the Kherson grouping will be significantly degraded even in its already degraded state. I don't think Russia's positions on the west bank will be sustainable at all at that point.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1577280165377638400

Local civilian photos/claims support the most recent Rybar map. It looks like we have another "regrouping" on our hands.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577256807394725889?s=20&t=xiLekb...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1577237760603131904?s=20&t=xiLekb9Qfw...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1577286084723367936

[Virginiá]

Taking lots of land west of the Dnieper, especially along the Inhulets (which has been used as a defensive line) is good news for Ukraine, but this should be kept in perspective.

On the one hand, a smaller Russian presence west of the river means interdiction of supplies is going to be easier for Ukraine. It's also likely the defenses further back are not as strong as the prepared defenses Ukraine just broke through.

On the other hand, the frontline is currently shorter than it was thanks to the Russian retreats and the garrison west of the river has a smaller area to supply and defend. This means manpower could be less of an issue for Russia. Though supply may now be harder for them, they are probably going to need slightly fewer supplies than they did before. All of the newly liberated territory is extremely rural, so it's not like the Kharkiv offensive in which lots of people have been freed.

If they get to the crossing, they'll at least have freed Beryslav, which seems to be one of the few significant towns occupied west of the Dnieper. "The city of Dadyiv Brid," as propagandists on both sides put it, is a very generous overstatement for a village with a pre-war population of ~1.2k.

Edit: what I find striking about the Kherson counteroffensive is how many T-62s the Russian defenders in it seem to be using. They form a much greater proportion of the losses than on other fronts; perhaps they were specifically assigned to units deployed to Kherson for logistical reasons. They, (most likely) their parts and their ammunition are all lighter than the equivalents for T-64/72/80/90 tanks.

Yeah, these are good points. My thoughts are mostly contingent on reduced supplies actually reaching the Kherson grouping. Even more so considering that these rapid breakthroughs are usually accompanied by captured front-line ammo/supply stockpiles and captured heavy weapons that couldn't be moved back fast enough. As far as logistics, they aren't really close to being totally cut off, but it is degraded enough to have a notable impact. Also, these Russian forces haven't been rotated in quite a while (if ever, actually) as I understand it, so they are well past their prime fighting condition without adequate rest. The smaller this front gets, the denser and more difficult the fight will be, but Ukraine is still fighting in a fairly optimal situation.

[Storr]

Back on the homefront:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1577276823301283840?s=20&t=xiLekb...

[Storr]

At this rate, Ukraine will soon be right on top of the Nova Kharkova dam crossing, and if that gets taken, Russia's ability to supply the Kherson grouping will be significantly degraded even in its already degraded state. I don't think Russia's positions on the west bank will be sustainable at all at that point.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1577280165377638400

Local civilian photos/claims support the most recent Rybar map. It looks like we have another "regrouping" on our hands.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577256807394725889?s=20&t=xiLekb...

[tweet snip]

Yes, I know it's the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists "blood and soil" flag. But it still means Ukrainian forces have liberated the town.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577300762064977922?s=20&t=xiLekb...

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1577286084723367936

Longer video with the clip from the tweet above at the end:

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1577293984573128706?s=20&t=CsY79wCKm66A...

[DINGO Joe]

Ukraine and Russia cooperate (Thanks Elon!)  They both head in the same direction

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1577278328771608580

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1577344415500320770

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1577347101926760448

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1577347101926760448

It is like Russia is becoming the next Ghost Town.

[Storr]

CAA is short for Combined Arms Army, while the VDV is the Russian Airborne.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1577340905148784641?s=20&t=c9rzuMh7-ryDNZ...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1577350516312514561?s=20&t=c9rzuMh7-ryDNZ...

[thebeloitmoderate]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1576977000178208768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Reason 1 million why Elon Musk is a douchebag. This was the best tweet so far

[Storr]

More Soviet-era antiques spotted near the frontlines. To be honest, this thing looks pretty cool:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1577365313544404999?s=20&t=HRA_r19Sn33D...

Youtube video of a BMT-3 at work:

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1577381748077432884

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1577344415500320770

That tweet doesn't quite do it justice, as it's missing a few things. Notably the 200 (!!) MRAPs.

Here is the full list of the highly useful package of military aid: