Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

hahaha, it's really going to come down to Babis, but this time propped up by Okamura, or ODS back in the saddle with the Pirates shunted off into the background. What a trainwreck either way.

[Logical]

75,53% precincts counted
64,42% turnout

ANO 28,90%
SPOLU 25,66%
PirStan 14,42%
SPD 10,31%
CSSD 4,86%
Prisaha 4,78%
KSCM 3,91%

SPOLU + PirStan have a majority for the first time, 101 projected seats.

[Diouf]

Something weird is happening with the open list preferential votes for PirStan. They're currently projected at 35 seats but Pirates will only take 2 of them!!!! STAN takes the rest (33). In 2017 STAN only won 6 seats while Pirati got 22.

Young Pirate voters not realizing the importance of preference with the STAN voters voting heavily on the locally well-known candidates? Seems really unprofessional if the Pirates hadn't seen this coming or tried to mitigate it. Perhaps it will help a bit somewhere if the urban vote is lacking, and they have more prefence votes there.

[Diouf]

In SPOLU, the seat distribution is currently

ODS 32 (+7)
KDU-CSL 22 (+12)
TOP 09 13 (+6)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Something weird is happening with the open list preferential votes for PirStan. They're currently projected at 35 seats but Pirates will only take 2 of them!!!! STAN takes the rest (33). In 2017 STAN only won 6 seats while Pirati got 22.

Young Pirate voters not realizing the importance of preference with the STAN voters voting heavily on the locally well-known candidates? Seems really unprofessional if the Pirates hadn't seen this coming or tried to mitigate it. Perhaps it will help a bit somewhere if the urban vote is lacking, and they have more prefence votes there.

...

......

...............................................

lmao bloody hell

[FredLindq]

So STAN+ODS+KDU+TOP seems to get an majority?!

[Logical]

With 87,79% precincts counted, here's the seat breakdown by party

ANO 74 (-4)
STAN 33 (+27!!)
ODS 32 (+7)
KDU-CSL 23 (+13)
SPD 22 (-)
TOP09 13 (+6)
Pirati 3 (-19!!!)
CSSD 0 (-15)
KSCM 0 (-15)

STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 = 101

[Mike88]

The wipe out of the Communists is another big story. Also, 45% still out from Prague and the margin is getting narrower between ANO and SPOLU.

[Diouf]

A big part is of course also the general meltdown of Pirates, and even Rakusan being part of the Superdebate. He seems very popular and so far leads the personal vote list, ahead of Babis. Bartos nowhere to be seen in the top.

[Diouf]

Hmm, CT just showed a graphic which seemed to say Pirates 19 and STAN 17. So I wonder if they are wrong or there is something missing from the Idnes calculation so far.

[Mike88]

With 90.5% of the votes counted, 63,997 votes separates ANO from SPOLU. SPOLU just gain one seat from ANO and 39% of Prague is still to be counted.

[Logical]

91,00% precincts counted
64,97% turnout

ANO 28,05%
SPOLU 26,66%
PirStan 14,97%
SPD 9,97%
CSSD 4,76%
Prisaha 4,75%
KSCM 3,76%

[Diouf]

Tomio Okamura's big brother, Hayato, currently looks like he will be elected for KDU-CSL in Prague. He was only 15th on the SPOLU list, but looks like getting enough preference votes to be elected.

[Diouf]

The high turnout in Prague, currently at 69.43%, pushing up the national turnout to 65.06%. The highest turnout since 1998. And probably a significant part of giving SPOLU + PiratiSTAN a fairly comfortable majority in the end.

[Mike88]

PŘÍSAHA just surpassed ČSSD. Diouf, do you think that SPOLU could surpass ANO? Every time there's a new update, the margin becomes narrower and narrower.

[Diouf]

PŘÍSAHA just surpassed ČSSD. Diouf, do you think that SPOLU could surpass ANO? Every time there's a new update, the margin becomes narrower and narrower.

Yes, the predictions I see have SPOLU ca 0.5% around in the end.

[Mike88]

35,780 votes now separate ANO and SPOLU.

[Mike88]

2.65% of the votes yet to count and the margin between ANO and SPOLU is down to just 9,789 votes...

[rob in cal]

If there was a much lower threshold, and the communists socialists and prisaha all got in, would Babis have a better chance of staying on as PM?

[Mike88]

SPOLU just surpassed ANO.

[Logical]

98,11% precincts counted
65,34% turnout

SPOLU 27,45%
ANO 27,43%
PirStan 15,37%
SPD 9,69%
Prisaha 4,71%
CSSD 4,69%
KSCM 3,65%

SPOLU has finally surpassed ANO

[Astatine]

98.21 % counted:

SPOLU 27.47 %
ANO 27.41 %
PaS 15.38 %
SPD 9.68 %
Prisaha 4.71 %
CSSD 4.69 %
KSCM 3.65 %

[Diouf]

Hamacek resigning as CSSD leader and Filip will also likely be gone. Kind of embarrassing for both parties that they seem like ending behind Prisaha,

[Astatine]

Hamacek resigning as CSSD leader and Filip will also likely be gone. Kind of embarrassing for both parties that they seem like ending behind Prisaha,

Filip had announced in 2020 already that he wouldn't be standing in the next leadership election which is gonna take place in November.

[Double Carpet]

Massive cheer at SPOLU HQ while Stan leader speaking, I imagine he said they would enter a coalition with, or at least support, a SPLOU-led government?

And we are expecting SPOLU now to have most seats so Zeman will have to appoint Fiala as PM?

End of Babis era? If he steps down from politics does ANO remain as a major force or is it essentially all about him?