Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

Babis said he won't be able to form a coalition and will therefore not accept a mandate from the President to form a new government. He fully expects the five anti-Babis parties to form a government and will hand over to Fiala when they are ready. He has changed his mind on quitting politics, and now wants to continue in parliament and says he wants to be a member of the Health committee as there is still a lot of work to do on covid-19.

The five parties have started talks on a new government programme with teams negotiations on the different subjects. They say they expect to have an agreement at the latest on 8th November - the date on which the new parliament meets. And there is a lot of speculation ongoing about how that date for the the first meeting of the new parliament came about. The speaker of the house, ANOs Radek Vondráček, went into the hospital, against the hospital's rules, and together with the head of the office for the president, Vratislav Mynář, entered the president's ward. Vondracek then returned from hospital with a signed declaration with the date of the opening of parliament. However, this has been reported to the police as a possible forgery as Zeman's signature is apparently significantly different from his usual signature, so there are accusations that the president was not in a fit state to sign it or that it was even forged by the president's wife. The date for the opening of parliament was the latest possible day to open parliament, so it made sense for Vondracek to delay the handing over of power as late as possible, and for Mynar and the Zeman family, there is an interest to make it seem like Zeman is fit and capable of performing his duties. However, there are no official reports about Zeman's conditions. The Senate has now officially asked for information on this, so it can make an informed decision about whether to activate article 66.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's a map of mine.

Some of the party colors are arbitrary because they can't all be blue.
As always, open in new tab for full size.

Excellent map. Can someone more familiar with Czech politics explain what's going on in the map? I can tell SPOLU won Prague and that's about it.

[Estrella]

Here's a map of mine.

Some of the party colors are arbitrary because they can't all be blue.
As always, open in new tab for full size.

Excellent map. Can someone more familiar with Czech politics explain what's going on in the map? I can tell SPOLU won Prague and that's about it.

Spolu won the big cities - Prague, Brno, Plzeň, České Budějovice - and the suburbs around them. They also did well in religious rural areas in central Moravia (Vysočina) that used to be the base of KDU-ČSL and in some other random places - I guess that the patches of very strong results in the mountains on Northern (Krkonoše) and Southwewstern (Šumava) borders are related to tourism: more openness to the world, rich people etc.

The general pattern is that the bigger the city, the better result for Spolu and worse for ANO. ANO's best results are in depressed postindustrial areas in the Northwest (Chomutov, Most, Ústí), Northeast (Ostrava, Frýdek-Místek, Karviná) and Southeast (Znojmo). These areas were all majority German until after WW2, when the original population was deported and replaced by ethnic Czechs. Peripherical location + sh*t local economy + less cohesive population is a very good recipe for success for populists like ANO, SPD, Commies or Zeman in presidential elections.

The base of STAN is in Northern Bohemia around Liberec, and that's where most of municipalities they won are, the rest being mostly personal votes (the Mayors part of Mayors and Independents). The cluster of cyan for Přísaha is Nenačovice and some surrounding villages, where their leader Robert Šlachta lives and the brother of one of their top candidates is mayor. Other patches of color for non-Spolu/ANO parties are basically random noise - most Czech rural municipalities are pretty small, and in a low-ish turnout election in a split party system something like 50 votes can be enough to win a municipality.

[Diouf]

The Senate leadership has received a health report from the Central Military Hospital regarding Zeman's condition. Senate President Miloš Vystrčil just announced that the report states that Zeman is currently unable to perform any work duties and that the long-term prognosis of the president's state of health is extremely uncertain so the possibility of returning to work in the coming weeks is considered unlikely. Several senators from the leadership therefore said it is now not a question of if, but when and how to activate Article 66 of the Constitution

[Alcibiades]

Spolu won the big cities - Prague, Brno, Plzeň, České Budějovice - and the suburbs around them. They also did well in religious rural areas in central Moravia (Vysočina) that used to be the base of KDU-ČSL and in some other random places - I guess that the patches of very strong results in the mountains on Northern (Krkonoše) and Southwewstern (Šumava) borders are related to tourism: more openness to the world, rich people etc.

The general pattern is that the bigger the city, the better result for Spolu and worse for ANO. ANO's best results are in depressed postindustrial areas in the Northwest (Chomutov, Most, Ústí), Northeast (Ostrava, Frýdek-Místek, Karviná) and Southeast (Znojmo). These areas were all majority German until after WW2, when the original population was deported and replaced by ethnic Czechs. Peripherical location + sh*t local economy + less cohesive population is a very good recipe for success for populists like ANO, SPD, Commies or Zeman in presidential elections.

The base of STAN is in Northern Bohemia around Liberec, and that's where most of municipalities they won are, the rest being mostly personal votes (the Mayors part of Mayors and Independents). The cluster of cyan for Přísaha is Nenačovice and some surrounding villages, where their leader Robert Šlachta lives and the brother of one of their top candidates is mayor. Other patches of color for non-Spolu/ANO parties are basically random noise - most Czech rural municipalities are pretty small, and in a low-ish turnout election in a split party system something like 50 votes can be enough to win a municipality.

It’s interesting how this produces the opposite political effect to in Poland, where the ex-German areas are stronger for PO and weaker for PiS, supposedly because people have fewer deep, traditional local ties and are thus less culturally conservative.

[Estrella]

Here's a map of mine.

Some of the party colors are arbitrary because they can't all be blue.
As always, open in new tab for full size.

Excellent map. Can someone more familiar with Czech politics explain what's going on in the map? I can tell SPOLU won Prague and that's about it.

Spolu won the big cities - Prague, Brno, Plzeň, České Budějovice - and the suburbs around them. They also did well in religious rural areas in central Moravia (Vysočina) that used to be the base of KDU-ČSL and in some other random places - I guess that the patches of very strong results in the mountains on Northern (Krkonoše) and Southwewstern (Šumava) borders are related to tourism: more openness to the world, rich people etc.

The general pattern is that the bigger the city, the better result for Spolu and worse for ANO. ANO's best results are in depressed postindustrial areas in the Northwest (Chomutov, Most, Ústí), Northeast (Ostrava, Frýdek-Místek, Karviná) and Southeast (Znojmo). These areas were all majority German until after WW2, when the original population was deported and replaced by ethnic Czechs. Peripherical location + sh*t local economy + less cohesive population is a very good recipe for success for populists like ANO, SPD, Commies or Zeman in presidential elections.

The base of STAN is in Northern Bohemia around Liberec, and that's where most of municipalities they won are, the rest being mostly personal votes (the Mayors part of Mayors and Independents). The cluster of cyan for Přísaha is Nenačovice and some surrounding villages, where their leader Robert Šlachta lives and the brother of one of their top candidates is mayor. Other patches of color for non-Spolu/ANO parties are basically random noise - most Czech rural municipalities are pretty small, and in a low-ish turnout election in a split party system something like 50 votes can be enough to win a municipality.

It’s interesting how this produces the opposite political effect to Poland, where the ex-German areas are stronger for PO and weaker for PiS, supposedly because people have fewer deep, traditional local ties and are thus less culturally conservative.

It is interesting! I'm not a sociologist and I don't want to go to deep into stereotypes here, but I suspect it might have to do with these countries' different histories. Poland has long been deeply Catholic and deeply nationalist, so a stable society will produce a reactionary, closed-off mentality. These things were less prominent in Western Poland, so PiS and similar parties did badly there. Czechia has been... I don't want to say "more advanced", but it had a major pre-Reformation Protestant movement, strong industry and bourgeoise, a fairly high number of non-religious people even before the Communist regime and so on. In this environment, a stable society will still be conservative, but it will be, to use an old Atlas meme, fiscal conservatism rather than social conservatism. In resettled areas where this wasn't the case as much, ČSSD used to do very well and their decline is more similar to Western European socdems' decline in postindustrial regions than to Eastern Poland and PiS.

(if anybody knows more than me - somebody does for sure! - feel free to correct me)

[Conservatopia]

Spolu won the big cities - Prague, Brno, Plzeň, České Budějovice - and the suburbs around them. They also did well in religious rural areas in central Moravia (Vysočina) that used to be the base of KDU-ČSL and in some other random places - I guess that the patches of very strong results in the mountains on Northern (Krkonoše) and Southwewstern (Šumava) borders are related to tourism: more openness to the world, rich people etc.

The general pattern is that the bigger the city, the better result for Spolu and worse for ANO. ANO's best results are in depressed postindustrial areas in the Northwest (Chomutov, Most, Ústí), Northeast (Ostrava, Frýdek-Místek, Karviná) and Southeast (Znojmo). These areas were all majority German until after WW2, when the original population was deported and replaced by ethnic Czechs. Peripherical location + sh*t local economy + less cohesive population is a very good recipe for success for populists like ANO, SPD, Commies or Zeman in presidential elections.

The base of STAN is in Northern Bohemia around Liberec, and that's where most of municipalities they won are, the rest being mostly personal votes (the Mayors part of Mayors and Independents). The cluster of cyan for Přísaha is Nenačovice and some surrounding villages, where their leader Robert Šlachta lives and the brother of one of their top candidates is mayor. Other patches of color for non-Spolu/ANO parties are basically random noise - most Czech rural municipalities are pretty small, and in a low-ish turnout election in a split party system something like 50 votes can be enough to win a municipality.

It’s interesting how this produces the opposite political effect to in Poland, where the ex-German areas are stronger for PO and weaker for PiS, supposedly because people have fewer deep, traditional local ties and are thus less culturally conservative.

Is it the opposite though? - ODS and PiS are more similar than ODS and PO or ANO and PiS.

[M0096]

ODS is similar to PiS moderate wing (PM Morawiecki). PO is something between ANO and TOP09.

[Alcibiades]

Spolu won the big cities - Prague, Brno, Plzeň, České Budějovice - and the suburbs around them. They also did well in religious rural areas in central Moravia (Vysočina) that used to be the base of KDU-ČSL and in some other random places - I guess that the patches of very strong results in the mountains on Northern (Krkonoše) and Southwewstern (Šumava) borders are related to tourism: more openness to the world, rich people etc.

The general pattern is that the bigger the city, the better result for Spolu and worse for ANO. ANO's best results are in depressed postindustrial areas in the Northwest (Chomutov, Most, Ústí), Northeast (Ostrava, Frýdek-Místek, Karviná) and Southeast (Znojmo). These areas were all majority German until after WW2, when the original population was deported and replaced by ethnic Czechs. Peripherical location + sh*t local economy + less cohesive population is a very good recipe for success for populists like ANO, SPD, Commies or Zeman in presidential elections.

The base of STAN is in Northern Bohemia around Liberec, and that's where most of municipalities they won are, the rest being mostly personal votes (the Mayors part of Mayors and Independents). The cluster of cyan for Přísaha is Nenačovice and some surrounding villages, where their leader Robert Šlachta lives and the brother of one of their top candidates is mayor. Other patches of color for non-Spolu/ANO parties are basically random noise - most Czech rural municipalities are pretty small, and in a low-ish turnout election in a split party system something like 50 votes can be enough to win a municipality.

It’s interesting how this produces the opposite political effect to in Poland, where the ex-German areas are stronger for PO and weaker for PiS, supposedly because people have fewer deep, traditional local ties and are thus less culturally conservative.

Is it the opposite though? - ODS and PiS are more similar than ODS and PO or ANO and PiS.

Certainly in terms of the rest of the country, ODS are winning the areas PO would, and ANO the areas PiS would. In very crude Atlas meme terms, it’s the #elitist vs. #populist divide.

[Diouf]

Babis today encouraged the head of office for the president, Vratislav Mynář, to step down following the report about Zeman's health. Mynář invited the speaker Radek Vondráček to the hospital against the rules and despite Zeman not being able to fulfil his duties, and held press conferences lying about the president's health. Babis said Mynář otherwise should be sacked immediatedly once article 66 is activated. Mynář refuses to step down. The PM's has also asked the relevant ministry to cancel the diplomatic passports of those in the Zeman inner circle.
Babis added that there is no hurry to activate article 66 until the new House meets and a new government will have to be appointed. Until then there is little to do for the President anyway.

The Chamber and Senate leadership have decided to ask for a common report on the president's health, which is to be the official basis of a vote to activate article 66. The Senate is expected to vote on November 5. The House is expected to vote shortly after the official opening of Parliament on November 8-10. Then a new Speaker is also appointed so the new majority parties avoid giving the presidential powers to current speaker Vondracek, whom few trust right now.

The police has said they are opening an investigation for "crimes against the republic", but more details haven't come out. So presumably about the role of Mynář in particular, but perhaps also the Zeman family and even Vondracek.

[Mike88]

I don't get it, why lie about Zeman's health? It doesn't make any sense. All of this suspicion and doubt about the health of a President of a Republic is very weird. Or is it just Zeman's wish having this cloud of suspicion surrounding him? I mean, this is going on for quite some time now.

[Estrella]

I don't get it, why lie about Zeman's health? It doesn't make any sense. All of this suspicion and doubt about the health of a President of a Republic is very weird. Or is it just Zeman's wish having this cloud of suspicion surrounding him? I mean, this is going on for quite some time now.

Being honest about his health would mean being forced to retire one way or another, and he really really wouldn't like that. He's one of those people who have been in politics forever but their ego simply doesn't allow them to quit. Frankly, the best comparision with regards to personality would be someone like Robert Mugabe. You're probably right: this tragicomedy is his dying wish.

[Diouf]

SPOLU and PiratiStan agreed on a government programme on Tuesday. It will now be voted on by each party internally. If approved, they will then be able to sign the programme on Monday 8 November. I haven't seen a mention of the procedures for approval. The most interesting would be the Pirate approval, where I would have suspected some kind of membership involvement. However, I haven't seen that mentioned everywhere, so I guess their elected representatives can approve it.
It sounds like there will be 18 ministers, divided 11-7 between SPOLU and PiratiStan.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Distribution of the cabinet posts and possible names.

The Together coalition [SPOLU] will occupy the positions of minister of finance, minister of defence, minister of labour and social affairs, minister of transport, minister of health, minister of justice, minister of agriculture, minister of the environment, minister of culture and minister of science, research and innovation.

Another seven briefs will go to the Pirates and the Mayors & Independents. They are interior, industry, foreign affairs, education, regional development, legislation and European affairs.

...

As for what names will receive which portfolios...


https://english.radio.cz/electoral-coalitions-strike-deal-forming-new-government-8732968

[Diouf]

Today, the five party leaders signed the coalition agreement. All five parties received backing to the plans, but it does seem like Pirates will have final vote among its membership. The vote on final ratification from the Pirates will take place over the weekend. Fiala said he expects the Babis government to resign by the end of the week, and then he can meet with Zeman, whose health has improved somewhat, and be appointed PM.

Fiala said he wants to lead the country out of its current health, economic and value crises. He wants the state to be managed better, to expand the building of housing and roads, and give a positive perspective for the new generation. "The aggressive, reckless, populist policy of constantly shouting at the public, disturbing people and insulting entire social groups must end". TOP09 emphasize a reduction of debt, and a clear Western and NATO-direction of the country. KDU-CSL said a key focus is to support families and bring back a constructive form of communication in the public debate. STAN also emphasized the clear choice towards the Western countries, while Pirates promised a democratic government without the influence of oligarchs.

In the programme, the parties say they will stabilize the public finances by reforming public spending and reducing corruption, but not increase taxes. It includes a big project to digitize public administration by 2025. In terms of transport, a number of high-speed rails projects will be build, but also some highways + raising the speed limit on some of those. It will keep the current indexation of pensions, but reform the system overall. Defence expenditure should rise towards 2% of GDP. The coalition will work towards carbon neutrality in 2050 with limits on coal mining, so a final end to coal mining can be achieved before 2038. The EU's Green Deal is seen as an opportunity to significantly modernize the Czech economy, improve the quality of life and improve the environment by investing in sustainable development, clean and renewable resources and circular management. The future of Czech energy is described as nuclear energy, decentralised renewable sources and increased energy efficiency.

Markéta Pekarová Adamová, leader of TOP09 will become the new Speaker of the House.

[Diouf]

82% of Pirate members voting supported them entering the government, so it's all aboard for them now.
Fiala expected to present his new 5-party government on Wednesday

[Flyersfan232]

82% of Pirate members voting supported them entering the government, so it's all aboard for them now.
Fiala expected to present his new 5-party government on Wednesday

I am 99% they won’t be in goverment in 4 years

[Estrella]

Caption this.



Anyway, congrats to Fiala.

[CumbrianLefty]

Finally, a politician put back in their box!

(not my own effort, for better or worse)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

“Lead the government, Petr, or Milos will have to do it again.”

(also not my effort)

[Flyersfan232]

So is Babis running for president who will succeed him

[Diouf]

CCSD elected Michal Šmarda as the new leader. He beat Jana Maláčová, the acting Minister of Labor and Social Affairs. He received support from 130 of 233 delegates, while she won the support of 62. Finally, the former director of Military Intelligence, Miroslav Krejčík, won 41 votes.

Smarda is currently mayor in Nové Město na Moravě, a winter sport resort town with around 10.000 inhabitants. He was deputy chairman in the party from 2019 to early 2021. He was supposed to become Minister of Culture in 2019, but was rejected by Zeman, probably because Smarda had been critical of the government cooperation with ANO and of Zeman. Smarda therefore also supported Petříček in his failed leadership bid against Jan Hamacek.

The new cabinet is appoint to be appointed, but Zeman doesn't want the proposed Foreign Minister, Pirate Jan Lipavský. Zeman claims he is too lowly educated for that post, that he will damage relations to Israel and Visegrad and due to his proposal that the next Sudeten German days of celebration could be held in Czechia. Fiala and the rest of the government is holding on to the nomination, and wants the Constitutional Court to make a final judgment on how the competence between President and Prime Minister is distributed in this regard. When Zeman himself was PM, he had the same interpretation as Fiala now, that the President must accept the PM's proposals.

[Diouf]

Zeman didn't want the big Constitutional fight after all so has withdrawn his reservations about appointing Lipavský. The new government will be appointed tomorrow, and then have the official vote of confidence in mid-January.

In January, the Pirates will have their national forum where they elect their leader. Ivan Bartos is running again, but senator Lukáš Wagenknecht has also announced his candidacy.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In January, the Pirates will have their national forum where they elect their leader. Ivan Bartos is running again, but senator Lukáš Wagenknecht has also announced his candidacy.

Is Bartos likely to get re-elected? I'd imagine that, even if they've made it into government, Pirates can't be entirely happy with how the election went for them.

[Diouf]

In January, the Pirates will have their national forum where they elect their leader. Ivan Bartos is running again, but senator Lukáš Wagenknecht has also announced his candidacy.

Is Bartos likely to get re-elected? I'd imagine that, even if they've made it into government, Pirates can't be entirely happy with how the election went for them.

From what I can see, Wagenknecht was one of the few prominent voices sceptical of joining the government. So considering that 82% of the Pirates voted in favour of joining the government, it seems like there is little chance of Bartos losing.

And they certainly aren't happy with the way the election ended in terms of seat + the poor campaign. The seat part was known as a potential problem that everybody was aware of, but the degree to which it would affect them was underestimated. The alliance was made considering the previous electoral system, where the bigger entities had a seat advantage. It would probably have rocked the boat too much to cancel the alliance when the new electoral system was agreed after the Court struck down the old one. But if they are somewhat clear of the 5%-threshold, it seems certain that they will run on their own next time since there is not normally a seat bonus for the bigger entities in the new system.

Bartos is more to blame for the campaign, where he and the party leadership seemed unprepared in relation to the attacks from ANO and SPD, particularly on stuff like migration. In public, the Pirates seem to agree that it was mainly the fault of those evil populists + the media, but behind closed doors they could probably have a tougher analysis of Bartos' performance in the campaign.