Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

Czech lawmaker Dominik Feri was taken to hospital after an assault by two men that appears to have been racially motivated.

The attack on the Czech Republic's first black parliamentarian took place on Sunday at a wine-tasting event in Borsice, in the eastern region of Moravia, and is being investigated by police, according to national media.

Feri wrote on Twitter that he had been punched by two men. A picture he posted along with the tweet appears to show a rip in his shirt and a cut in his back.

https://www.politico.eu/article/dominik-feri-czech-mp-hospitalized-following-alleged-racial-attack/

[Diouf]

Klaus Jr starts new party



Václav Klaus Jr., who was expelled by ODS in March, has started a new party, Trikolóra hnutí občanů (Tricolour Citizens' Movement). He was joined by another MP, Zuzana Majerova Zahradnikova, who left ODS earlier this year. The Tricolour is set to represent three pillars. The first is "the protection of the normal World"(Family values, opposition to gay marriage, gender ideology, multi-culturalism etc.), "Honest work as the source of wealth" (Low and simple taxes, low regulation, small public sector with benefits only as last safety net, pensions should be increased) and "Czech Republic as our home" (Euroscepticism, but doesn't sound like proposing to leave, seeking a Hungarian/Poland direction with opposition to international NGOs and undemocratic national institutions(mentions Ombudsman etc.)).

So it is basically the programme of the ODS right-wing, who has now left the party, so if there are a few more dissatisfied MPs inside ODS, they could jump ship as well. There is also talk about two minor parties joining Trikolora. Svobodní (Free Citizens) with Petr Mach, which had some traction in 2013 (2.5% in parliament elections) and 2014 (5.2% in EU elections and Mach elected MEP), but has since faded and only won 0.7% in the 2019 EU elections. Realisté (Realists) with Petr Robejšek, who won 0.7% in the 2017 parliament elections and 1.2% in the 2018 presidential elections.

Okamura's SPD seems to have some of the same problems as his previous outfit with internal problems. Three MPs have left to start Jednotní (Unified), but none of them are nearly as well-known as Klaus and there are already plenty of fringe far-right parties in Czechia, so their chances of success is much lower.

In the first poll Trikolora is at 3%, so there is some traction. It doesn't seem unlikely that the party could quickly join the other parties in the dance around the 5% threshold.

[Diouf]

New Kantar poll for Ceska Televize has Communists below threshold for the first time. Trikolora is at 3.5%. Stan, KDU-CSL and TOP09 all around the threshold. ANO remains by far the biggest party with Pirates and ODS in battle for second.

[Diouf]

Trikolóra above the threshold for the first time in a Phoenix november poll. And even in one of those weird polls, where they include 15% for undecideds, so without those all parties would be even higher. However, it should be noted that Czech polls disagree quite a lot about several parties. Some have CSSD and KSCM dropping further compared to the poor 2017 results (7.3% and 7.8%), while others have them both closer to 10%, and therefore a re-election for the three majority parties. Similarly, some polls have SPD down with the other parties around, or even below, the 5% threshold, while others have them holding on much better. They also markedly disagree on whether Trikolóra is around the threshold or still have a fair way to go, which also seems to affect how close ODS is to Pirates in second place. ANO seem pretty stable around 30% in most polls, and the three EPP musketeers (TOP09, STAN and KDU-CSL) dancing around the threshold.

[Diouf]

Markéta Pekarová Adamová new leader of TOP09



Czechia now has its only second female party leader in history as 35-year old Markéta Pekarová Adamová has been elected leader of TOP09. She won the votes of 96 delegates against 81 for her opponent, senator Tomáš Czernin. Czernin had the support of the old guard, the party's two most prominent founders and former leaders, Karel Schwarzenberg and Miroslav Kalousek, while Pekarová Adamová was supported by Dominik Feri and departing leader Jiří Pospíšil. Pekarová Adamová belongs to the party's more liberal wing, e.g. on issues like homosexual weddings, while Czernin is more traditionally conservative. Pekarová Adamová wants to focus on the party's pro-EU and pro-euro stance, a strong environmental and climate protection, a better education system as well as more and better housing.

With her at the helm, TOP09 really should have the chance to become a strong social liberal, urban party like those seen across Europe. The Pirates are strong with this group currently, but they aren't as clear ideologically on some of these points. However, the question is whether there can be enough unity in the party. Kalousek in particular has done his best to undermine Pospíšil, and with a parliamentary group divided with a 3 in each wing, and a somewhat absent Schwarzenberg leading towards Kalousek's side, Pekarová Adamová will certainly fear that internal problems will lead to the party's demise.

[Diouf]

There are regional elections as well as elections for 1/3 of the senate on 2/3 October.
National polling has for long had ANO as the dominat figure with ODS and Pirates in a tight race for a distant 2nd place. While ANO's majority partners, CSSD and KSCM, will almost certainly lose votes compared to 2016, we will get an indication of how well they will be able to hold on after governing with Babis. Three of the small centre-right parties, KDU-CSL, STAN & TOP 09, all have new party leaders who face their first real electoral test. Finally, it will also be the first election for Trikolora, Vaclav Klaus Jr's new party, who got their third MP over the summer, when former SPD MP Tereza Hyťhová joined the party. Despite the usual internal scrabbles and defections, SPD looks to be holding on fairly well.

[Diouf]

As usual, voting takes place over two days. It started today at 14.00 and finished tomorrow at 14.00.
The senate is not very important, and most constituencies will have a 2nd round in a fortnight with less than half the turnout (from 33% to 15.5% in 2016). And often local candidates with support of one or more national parties will end up doing very well and winning several seats.

So the regional elections are more interesting, and more reflective of national opinion as the whole country, except Prague, is voting. ANO is expected to stay dominant and come out on top in all regions. Polling suggests Liberec is the best chance of another party winning with STAN at 22%, 7% behind ANO. However, while ANO will likely be the biggest party everywhere, they could face a lack of potential coalition partners in several regions. As written above, there are several interesting developments to follow. The small centre-right parties can be a difficult to follow as they, and partly ODS, have made a number of different alliances with each other and/or regional parties across the regions.

[Estrella]

Shows how much I care about my neighboring country's politics that I had no idea this is happening.

Anyway, here's a results page: ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/krajskevolby. It's in Czech, but Google Translate works fine.

[Diouf]

And a live stream here: https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/#live

Reports indicate an  increase in turnout. It was 34.57% in 2016 for the regional elections, but is expected to be closer to 40% this time.
In the senate elections, turnout in 2016 was 33.54%.
However, there are also reports that the counting could be slower due to corona restrictions.

[Diouf]

In Plzen, the count seems to be furthest ahead so far. With almost 10% counted, ANO is not that far ahead.

ANO 22,7 %
ODS  + TOP 09 19,6 %
STAN, Zelení, PRO PLZEŇ 15,2 %
Piráti 12,5 %
ČSSD 7,3 %
SPD 6,4 %
KSČM 6,0 %

[Diouf]

ANO the biggest party in 10 out of 13 regions with a bit above 20% counted.
The regional  Starostové pro Liberecký kraj (associated with STAN) looks like it will become clearly the biggest party again.
In Hradec Králové, the ODS + STAN alliance is narrowly ahead of ANO with both parties in the low twenties.
In Central Bohemia, it's also very tight between ANO and a STAN alliance for first place

[Diouf]

As expected, the senate seats will mainly go to the regionalist alliances, often in cooperation with STAN, KDU-CSL and sometimes other centre-right parties. ANO only looks like it will top the poll in three of the 26 senate seats, and finish 2nd in another seven seats. And in the run-offs in a fortnight, with very low turnout, the anti-ANO vote could defeat most of them.

[Diouf]

Klaus Jr's new party, Trikolora, only looks like it's making the cut in one region, Zlin, where it's just above the threshold at 5.5% with 83.24% of the votes counted. In Zlin, the party is running together with two other minor conservative parties, Soukromníci and Nezávislí. Trikoloras main candidate will get one of the two seats, while the other is set to go to Ivo Valenta, the billionaire behind Soukromníci. Valenta is also trying to defend his senate seat, where he will progress to the run-off against a KDU-CSL candidate.

[Diouf]

Babis' two majority partners, CSSD and KSCM, both with heavy losses. It was always going to go worse than in 2016, where they finished 2nd and 3rd with decent results. CSSD is set go from 125 to 28 regional councillors, and only get 4.96% nationally (and that's without Prague where they aren't strong). KSCM will drop from 86 to 13 seats, and only get 4.88% nationally (again, without Prague dragging them further down). So there have been some doubt about the two parties' standing as polls have shown them very differently, but it certainly seems like the more pessimistic of polls have been right for them. When the general election comes in a year or less, it could be a long night of looking at the threshold for both of them.

[PSOL]

How are the pirates doing?

[Diouf]

How are the pirates doing?

Very well. They won 91 regional councillors (+6/7 from their alliance in Olomouc), and are at 12% nationally (+ ca 0.7 from their alliance in Olomouc). And that is without their strongest area, Prague, which would have lifted them higher. Since ODS is in a bunch of different alliances across the country, it is hard to gauge whether ODS or Pirates were second nationwide, but it matches the polls which show them as the two parties battling for second.

However, it might be doubtful how many regional governors they will end up with. Coalitions without ANO could easily be formed in several regions, but Pirates are often in 3rd or 4th place behind ANO + one or two of the regional, centre-right alliances, so they aren't the obvious coalition leader in many places. In Vysočina, they are currently 2nd, only 4 votes ahead of ODS with 99.82% counted, and the Pirate/Stan alliance in Olomouc is in 2nd as well.

[Diouf]

The current headlines of some of the major newspapers:

Mlada Dnes: "ANO wins, Pirates surges, failure for CSSD and KSCM"
Lidovky: "ANO wins in 10 regions, also success for Pirates, CSSD and KCSM with the biggest losses"
Pravo: "ANO wins the regional elections, but forming coalitions won't be easy"
Blesk: "The voters' choice: 'The regions go to Babis, but"

So they tell a fairly similar story. ANO confirms its position as clearly the biggest party. However, as on the national level, actually getting a majority behind an ANO figure can be difficult. And Babis' partners CSSD and KSCM suffered heavy losses to the extent that it looks less likely that they will be available for a renewed coalition after the next general election. Both because they will lose votes and might have problems around the threshold, and particularly CSSD might anyway try to distance themselves a bit from Babis in an attempt to regain some strength. SPD showed they are still well alive with 6.14% nationally in the regional elections, but they are unlikely to be enough for a majority on the national level, and Trikolora does not currently look like a powerful force. Several of the opposition parties, particularly Pirates, ODS and STAN, had a good night. But they are still behind ANO almost everywhere, and coalition building will have to stretch across several very different parties.

[Diouf]

Negotiations are already on-going in most places, and in South Bohemia, where Brno is the capital, there is already an agreement on a new governor. KDU-CSL (11 seats), Pirates (10), ODS+Svobodni (9) and STAN (7) have a majority in the 65-seat regional chamber. They have an agreement in place, which will see KDU-CSL Jan Grolich as the new governor. He will replace ANOs Bohumil Šimek, who governed on a ANO-CSSD-TOP09-STAN majority after the 2016 election. ANO held on to its 15 seats, but CSSD dropped from 11 to 4.

https://twitter.com/Novinar_Tom/status/1312456713509904384

[Diouf]

A lot of the focus has now turned to KSCM and CSSD. The Communists have a party congress already in November, and it's hard to imagine Vojtěch Filip staying on. And it's hard to see how the party will turn around its fortunes, even with a new leader. I think the party structure is quite resistant to change. They have a very hard time convincing new voters to join the party, and their existing voters are lost to ANO, SPD or the graveyard.
CSSD has its party congress early next year, and Jan Hamacek is probably not in a safe position. However, the party has to figure out whether it wants to distance itself from Babis before the election, or grid its teeth and campaign hard on the social progress they have managed as part of the government. The fear is ending up between two chairs with two parts of the party drawing in different directions.

[jan.klusacek]

Negotiations are already on-going in most places, and in South Bohemia, where Brno is the capital, there is already an agreement on a new governor. KDU-CSL (11 seats), Pirates (10), ODS+Svobodni (9) and STAN (7) have a majority in the 65-seat regional chamber. They have an agreement in place, which will see KDU-CSL Jan Grolich as the new governor. He will replace ANOs Bohumil Šimek, who governed on a ANO-CSSD-TOP09-STAN majority after the 2016 election. ANO held on to its 15 seats, but CSSD dropped from 11 to 4.

South Moravia. Anyway, thank you for good reporting.

[PSOL]

Negotiations are already on-going in most places, and in South Bohemia, where Brno is the capital, there is already an agreement on a new governor. KDU-CSL (11 seats), Pirates (10), ODS+Svobodni (9) and STAN (7) have a majority in the 65-seat regional chamber. They have an agreement in place, which will see KDU-CSL Jan Grolich as the new governor. He will replace ANOs Bohumil Šimek, who governed on a ANO-CSSD-TOP09-STAN majority after the 2016 election. ANO held on to its 15 seats, but CSSD dropped from 11 to 4.

Hello!

South Moravia. Anyway, thank you for good reporting.

[Samof94]

How does having Covid rates that look like Spain affect them politically?

[Diouf]

Filip and KSCM's 4 deputy leaders have decided to make their positions available before a meeting in the party's executive committee this Friday. The decisions made in the executive committee can then be amended in the party's central committee, which meet 14 November, two weeks before the party congress. However, Filip did not rule out standing for leader again, but said much would depend on the reaction of the party. Filip has been leader since 2005.

https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3200514-filip-i-mistopredsedove-kscm-daji-v-patek-k-dispozici-sve-funkce

@ Samof94

I haven't really seen much effect of the Covid rates politically. The polling figures have been quite stable throughout this period.

[jan.klusacek]

How does having Covid rates that look like Spain affect them politically?

Opposition to ANO got mobilised in regional elections, older voters stayed at home (= bad result for KSCM and CSSD). According to some analysis, only 40 % of ANO voters from previous parliamentary elections participated in 2020 regional elections (compare to 80 % of ODS voters). I can't share the images, but if you find Denik N newspaper tomorrow frontpage, you can see more numbers from this analysis. ANO party was expecting a much better result.

[Diouf]

How does having Covid rates that look like Spain affect them politically?

Opposition to ANO got mobilised in regional elections, older voters stayed at home (= bad result for KSCM and CSSD). According to some analysis, only 40 % of ANO voters from previous parliamentary elections participated in 2020 regional elections (compare to 80 % of ODS voters). I can't share the images, but if you find Denik N newspaper tomorrow frontpage, you can see more numbers from this analysis. ANO party was expecting a much better result.

The charts can be seen here with voter movements from the 2016 regional elections, 2017 parliamentary elections, 2018 presidential election and 2019 European elections.

https://gitlab.com/michalskop/volby-2020/-/blob/master/README.md?fbclid=IwAR0QIVCg5sjdRkyEYwEK4VvjqP4PY-kVfIiYkDZSlKUBCsFU5J7fUfuuKAU