Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

We basically seem to be waiting for Babis' decision about which path to choose. Does he want to insist on becoming PM himself, and thereby limiting his possibility for a majority to Communists and SPD, or will he accept the Polish solution with another person as PM which will likely open for coalition options with either ODS or his previous coaliton partners (CSSD and KDU-CSL). If he chooses the first option, he will likely be chastised by EU partners and forced into a much more eurosceptic position than he prefers as well as building on an unstable SPD whose predecessor quickly fell apart during the last term. Furthermore, SPD has all kinds of demands for referenda, which he needs to curb in the right ways to avoid it hurting his power as PM too much. If he chooses the second option, it will be a personal humilation (and some might say, limit his possibilities to gain financially personally). However, it will likely allow him a quite stable majority with policy agreements, he seemed perfectly fine with as Finance Minister.

There is of course the possibility that one or more of the mainstream parties budge and accept Babis as PM, which is what he seems to have hoped for so far. However, this hasn't looked likely so far. Fiala seems to be certain in the saddle in ODS after a decent general election, and no hint of a sudden Klaus Jr. take-over. CSSD will choose a new leadership in February, but I doubt it would be popular internally to run on cooperation with Babis. 

[Diouf]

Babis has stated that his first attempt in the second round will be a majority with Social Democrats and Communists. However, he will await the Social Democrat congress on February 18th, where they will choose a new leader. Babis has been quite scornful of acting CSSD leader Milan Chovanec, who is running, so he is hoping for one of the other candidates to win. Chovanec is a hardliner on migration in the CSSD, but is unpopular with Babis due to his insistence on not supporting a cabinet headed by a prosecuted prime minister as well as claiming ANO shouldn't lead justice, interior and finance ministries due to the same allegations. It is hard to gauge the exact mood in the CSSD, but it is clear that at least a significant minority would be very upset if the party supports Babis as PM, and basically all relevant figures have rejected it in public so far. The upside is that they would have a decent chance of ensuring that the cabinet will continue the same broad Social Democrat economic policies as the Sobotka cabinet. With so many small parties in parliament, it could perhaps also be preferable attentionwise to participate in the governing majority rather than being one of many opposition parties.

Babis makes clear that he would prefer the Communists ahead of SPD because, as I hinted at in the previous thread, they are "more stable party" than SPD as Okamura tend to join up with disloyal lunatics. Furthermore, Babis rejects Okamura's too radical referenda demands and his Euroscepticism: "We can make a law on referenda, sure why not, but it should have at least a 800 thousand quorum, not the 100 thousand Okamura wants. And there is certainly no debate about leaving the EU. Right now, two megafirms approach me and are saying - there's Brexit, we are in London, but we leave the UK and we might want to have our headquarters in your country. So we have to explain to people that membership in the European Union is important, but that the Member States should have the fundamental say, not the European Commission. We must also explain to people - look, England is leaving and many companies will go away from there."

https://zpravy.idnes.cz/rozhovor-premier-andrej-babis-vztahy-se-zemanem-vlada-pfh-/domaci.aspx?c=A180128_113802_domaci_kop
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-government/czech-pm-babis-says-would-prefer-to-ally-with-social-democrats-communists-media-idUSKBN1FI0QN

[Diouf]

Before the second round, when polls were no longer allowed, bookmakers changed from favouring Drahos narrowly to favouring Zeman narrowly. So in all likelyhood, had polls been allowed, they would have shown the same movement and shown Zeman narrowly ahead.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/01/26/bookmakers-see-zeman-presidential-runoffs-favourite

[Diouf]

The CSSD congress is in less than a week, and three candidates are considered the favourites for the next CSSD leader. Acting CSSD leader and Interior Minister in the Sobotka Cabinet, Milan Chovanec, the former governor of South Bohemia, Jiří Zimola, and Speaker of Chamber of Deputies in the last term and current Deputy Speaker, Jan Hamáček.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/02/12/part-%C4%8Dssd-election-congress-be-held-behind-closed-doors

[Diouf]

Which CSSD candidate does Zeman favor, if any?

He has said that he will not endorse anyone, but he will attend the congress on invitation from acting leader Chovanec. All three favourites for the leadership supported Zeman in the presidential election, with Chovanec even being on stage with him celebrating the win. However, Chovanec has been the most critical of cooperation with Babis so far, so it is by no means certain that he is Zeman's preferred candidate.

[Diouf]

CSSD elected Jan Hamacek as new leader. In the final round of voting, he won won 272 votes at the congress, beating former regional government chief Jan Zimola, who got 224 votes.



Hamacek seemed the most eager of the candidates to pursue cooperation with ANO, since he did not reject the role of Babis in the government. Hamacek simply said that "The problem of criminally prosecuted government members is not a problem of the CSSD. It arose within the ANO movement. We expect our counterparts from ANO to tell us during the talks whether and how they want to solve the problem,". The CSSD congress also adopted a resolution calling on ANO not to nominate criminally prosecuted persons to the government, but apparently not setting this up as a red line. However, it did make clear that "A government with the support or participation of the CSSD must not rely on the votes of the SPD". Once negotiations are complete, the CSSD congress will meet again and have another vote.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/02/19/social-democrats-negotiate-new-government-ano

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-politics/czech-social-democrats-pick-leader-bring-viable-government-closer-idUSKCN1G20RF

[Diouf]

Both ANO and CSSD now supports the Communists' demand to tax the 2012 church resitutitions. A sign that parties are willing to bend in negotiations for a majority.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/communist-party-wins-new-allies-in-quest-to-see-church-restitutions-taxed

[Diouf]

Just when it seemed, we were on our way towards a ANO-CSSD government with Communist support, the government formation proces seems to take new directions again.

Babis and ANO has angered the Communists by forcing KSCM MP Zdenek Ondracek to resign as head of the lower house commission for the General Inspection of the Security Corps. Ondracek was a member of the communist riot police, which intervened against anti-communist demonstrations in 1989. ANO supported his nomination to the post, but after a huge public backlash and several demonstrations, Babis suddenly announced that ANO was withdrawing their confidence in him.

Babis has thought of ODS as a coalition partner again, and has said he wants to have talks about the government programme and participation in the government with ODS, claiming that voices in ODS would like such a government to become reality (Klaus Jr and allies). However, ODS leader Petr Fiala is not one of them, and has again rejected it. "ODS leader Petr Fiala said what Babis is considering is of little importance, but what he does is crucial. "In all major votes his government relies on the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the Communists (KSCM) and they sink our proposals lowering taxes and curbing red tape," he tweeted." Babis' sudden overtures to ODS has angered CSSD, whose new chairman Jan Hamacek tweeted that his party would likely cancel all talks with ANO if he starts talks with ODS as well.

The Social Democrats is also trying to figure out whether it will be ready internally to participate as junior partner in a Babis government. Former PM Sobotka is seen as a potential troublemaker; and the same is former Immigration Minister and acting party leader Milan Chovanec. They will likely campaign against any deal before the vote in the CSSD congress, but state that they will be loyal to the outcome. However, Hamacek and others seem to prefer if they found another job outside parliament, and there are rumours they could be appointed to a decent post as a part of the government negotiations.

Babis has also stated that ANO is negotiating with the Communists and the SPD about possible support for an ANO government. However, two leading ANO figures, Justice Minister Robert Pelikan and Foreign Minister Martin Stropnicky, has come out strongly against a deal that relies on the SPD.

My guess would be that most of this is posturing from Babis, most likely in an attempt to soften CSSD's demands in negotiations and reach a quick settlement. However, both of his other ideas have considerable obstacles in one way or another, so the question is how effectful it is. But we will see. Maybe he will go for it, if any majority suddenly turns up in one of the many negotiations, ANO seems to be having.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/03/12/babi%C5%A1-ano-may-offer-government-cooperation-ods

[Diouf]

It was only a short flirt with the other parties from Babis. He has now stated that he has called off all negotiations about the KCSM/SPD possibility. He mentioned big differences in terms of referendum (with SPD) and foreign policy and finances (with KCSM). ODS, as expected, continued to reject cooperation with ANO after their meeting. So we are now back to only the ANO-CSSD cabinet backed by KCSM. They aim to have a draft agreement on cooperation ready for approval on the CSSD congress on April 7th.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/03/16/ano-negotiate-only-%C4%8Dssd-about-minority-government

[Diouf]

After Babis' short attempt to broaden the negotiations, we are now back at negotiating about a ANO-CSSD government with outside support from KCSM. Negotiations seem to be going okay, and a government programme is hoped to be agreed upon before the Social Democrat congress on April 7th, where the party will vote on the programme. The areas of discussion mentioned in the press is taxation (CSSD want to introduce progressive taxation in several areas, ANO tends to oppose), the degree of public house building and increased pensions. The question is how much the Communists will have to say in this, as they could help move the economic policies further left. However, neither ANO nor CSSD seem willing to give in on KCSM' foreign policy wishes of referendums about EU and NATO membership.

One obstacle in forming an ANO-CSSD government is gone as former PM Bohuslav Sobotka is giving up his seat in parliament. At the same time he declared that he is against such a government, and would vote against it at the congress.

[Diouf]

Negotiations about a new government continues. CSSD has published a list of their most important wishes in the negotiations, and hope to include KSČM more deeply in the negotiations, so these economically left-wing ideas have a better chance of being accepted by ANO. "These priorities include the ban on privatisation of public services and companies with the state stake, the introduction of sick pay during the first three days of illness on the 60-percent pay level as of next year, while ANO proposes 30 percent only, and a guarantee that patients' direct financial participation in health care will not be raised. Moreover, the CSSD would like to introduce banking and inheritance taxes and shared jobs and demands "the declarations of a permanent solution to the economically problematic regions across the sectors."

It seems that ANO and CSSD have agreed on a referendum bill, which thankfully has a quite high bar and excludes international agreements. "Under the law, at least 850,000 signatures would be needed to call any national referendum and for any measure to gain approval it would need support of more than a half of eligible voters in the country".


http://praguemonitor.com/2018/03/28/%C4%8Dssd-wants-ks%C4%8Dm-help-it-agree-priorities-ano

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-lawmaking-referendum/czech-cabinet-backs-referendum-bill-safeguarding-against-czexit-idUSKBN1H31DZ

[Diouf]

Government talks apparently about to break down because Babis will not give CSSD the interior or finance minister position (where they can have oversight of Babis' shady business dealings).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-politics/czech-government-talks-break-down-in-row-over-ministry-posts-idUSKCN1HC2R9?il=0

[Diouf]

ANO in currently having internal talks about how to proceed in negotiations after President Zeman advised Babis to form a government with support from Communists and SPD. There are a number of prominent dissidents, who are clearly opposed to cooperation with the two parties. EU Commissioner Vera Jourova said "I still hope that this will not happen, and I am really intensively pondering on what this would mean for me", and added that Czechia has the best prospect of being a stable and fully democratic society, which is why there is no reason for its government to depend on the SPD's support. Justice Minister Robert Pelikan has already announced that he wants to leave politics when a new government is formed because "It is very hard for me to find understanding with a number of ANO lawmakers concerning human rights,". Transport Minister Dan Tok has said, he will do the same if cooperation with KCSM and SPD happens, "I do not want to assist in legitimising the parties that should not be legitimised". Defence Minister Karla Slechtova has previously called SPD fascists, and Foreign Minister Martin Stropnicky has been similarly critical.

Babis himself says that cooperation with KCSM and SPD would depend on support from the ANO movement, but whether that means a onevote majority or broad support in the party was not defined. I'm pretty certain he can get a majority, but it seems likely that it will completely break off their liberal wing. He added, that cooperation with the two parties is currently the only option, and "if the ANO movement will interpret it this way also, there is nothing left to do than work with the Communists and SPD." He also rejected the idea of an international backlash if his government depended on SPD:"Absolutely not, that is the fiction of Czech journalists. Look at what is going on in Austria". With both KCSM and SPD fairly eager to support Babis, he can probably find a path, where the government maintains its clear pro-EU and pro-NATO position, while making smaller concessions in other areas to keep the support parties happy (and himself in power).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-politics/czech-pm-babis-says-government-with-communists-far-right-a-last-resort-idUSKBN1HJ0YI

[Diouf]

The opposition internally in ANO to cooperation with SPD was apparently deemed to big by Babis.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-politics/czech-ano-party-wants-new-shot-at-center-left-coalition-to-avoid-far-right-idUSKBN1HJ0YI

[Diouf]

Why is SPD so hated by ANO?

An ANO-commies-SPD government would be a trainwreck, but it's probably the easiest government to form.

Also, since ANO has such a large lead, why not just form a minority government?

Well, there's was never going to be an ANO-Communists-SPD government, the whole point would be a minority government by ANO supported by those two parties. And yes ANO is clearly the biggest party, but it does not have a majority on its own. In theory, the ANO government in resignation could "rule" for the whole term if Zeman wants it to, but I think both Babis and Zeman would still much prefer some kind of stability by actually having a majority.

The reason that a significant part of ANO Ministers and MPs does not want to cooperate with SPD is statements like "Jews, homosexuals and Roma should be gassed" by the SPD secretary, Okamura himself denying the genocide of Romas during WWII etc. And while there is little interest in opening for non-western immigration in any party, they probably think SPD's rhetoric in this area is too tough as well. Practically, there could of course also be concerns about the stability of the party, since Okamura's last party splintered pretty quickly.

[Diouf]

Vojtech Filip re-elected as Communist leader ahead of Skala from the hardcore left. This should make it more likely that the party stays on its current course, and could end up supporting an ANO-Social Democrat government. Trilateral talks on the government are expected to start next week.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Diouf]

CSSD and ANO has agreed on a government programme, that will now be subject of a vote in the CSSD. Members will be able to vote from 21 May to 14 June.

The full programme has not yet been released, but media reports have the headline ideas:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/05/11/%C4%8Dssd-ano-govt-wants-pension-reform-security-income-tax

[Diouf]

Result of the CSSD vote will be announced on Friday. Media reports about a relatively narrow Yes.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/social-democrat-referendum-likely-to-endorse-coalition-with-ano

[Diouf]

Government participation approved by CSSD membership. Babis expect vote of confidence on July 11th.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/billionaire-closer-to-forming-majority-backed-czech-government?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[Diouf]

Tension over proposed CSSD Foreign Minister

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/czech-president-communist-party-leader-openly-reject-foreign-minister-nomination

[Diouf]

Czech Republic on track to be first post-communist nation with gay marriage

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.france24.com/en/20180622-czech-republic-track-be-first-post-communist-nation-with-gay-marriage

[Diouf]

Communists agree to back new government, confidence vote on July 11

The Communists accept to back the ANO - CSSD government, which will face its confidence vote on July 11. A TNS Kantar polls shows that 7% of voters see the government as a good option, 59% as an acceptable option, while 28% see it as a poor option. So not a lot of enthuasiasm, but a broad sense of acceptance. Among the six biggest parties, where there are reliable numbers, a majority of ODS and Pirates voters deem the government a poor option, while SPD voters are more accepting. Most polls also suggest that ODS and Pirates have currently materialized as the two "major" opposition parties at 12-13 %, which is around 3% higher than SPD, KSCM and CSSD. KDU-CSL, TOP09 and STAN still dancing around the threshold and ANO fairly stable at 30%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-government/czech-communist-party-agrees-to-back-minority-government-idUSKBN1JQ0DA

[Diouf]

A looong parliamentary debate is (hopefully) soon coming to an end, and the confidence vote will take place.

How do people like Pavel Bělobrádek's new look with the beard?

[Diouf]

Babis' government won the confidence late last night with 105 votes for, 91 against. 4 MPs were absent. Two for non-political reasons (1 ANO and 1 STAN). Former acting CSSD leader Milan Chovanec abstained due to his opposition to the government deal, and one Communist MP Zdeněk Ondráček abstained due to bitterness over ANO joining with the opposition to remove him as chairman of the lower house committee that oversees the agency that investigates police malpractice due to his pre-1989 role as an infamous riot police officer.

[Diouf]

I also notice that TOP09 seems hell-bent on selfdestruction. As a reward for the terrible general election result, the corrupt and most loathed politician in Czechia, Miroslav Kalousek, continued as group chairman (and therefore main speaker in parliament). They did elect the former ODS Justice Minister, Jiří Pospíšil, as new leader, but since he is currently a MEP, he can of course not participate in parliamentary debates. I heard Marketa Adamova (right in the picture) a few times while in Prague, and she seems by far the most competent and charismatic in that party (Schwarzenberg perhaps close in his few awake hours). It is unbelievable that she is not (at least) group chairman #longlivethepatriarchy