Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well both the Communists and Social Democrats getting wiped out is a pretty big moment.

Is there really no hope for either of them?

There's precedent in the Czech Republic for established parties dropping out of parliament and then reviving. However, they'll need good leadership and favourable conditions, and it's not obvious that they'll have them.

[Astatine]

Well both the Communists and Social Democrats getting wiped out is a pretty big moment.

Is there really no hope for either of them?

There's precedent in the Czech Republic for established parties dropping out of parliament and then reviving. However, they'll need good leadership and favourable conditions, and it's not obvious that they'll have them.

Wasn't KDU-ČSL the only party that managed to do this?

[Diouf]

What are the arguments for and against the Pirates working with STAN?

Ivan Bartos, the Pirate leader, said that the Pirates and STAN are attracting many similar voters. By joining together, they can focus on attracting more voters instead of competing with each other for the same votes. The argument in favour of both coalitions are also that it allows for stronger opposition to ANO. Instead of it being ANO and the many dwarfs, it shows ANO against two stronger coalitions.

Some Pirates are worried that, despite the candidate list reflecting the strength of the two parties, STAN could end up with a much bigger share of their common MPs than deserved as they tend to have local, well-known candidates while the Pirate brand is usually stronger than their young parliamentary candidates in most regions. Also there are some doubts whether STAN is too centrist and non-ideological, which could means the election of MPs whose views are too far away from the Pirate's liberal values.

Just remembered this post, which showed that it was discussed beforehand whether the coalition would end up with mostly STAN MPs.
In order to calculate the real share of Pirate vote, one could try to add all the personal votes for the Pirate candidates vs the STAN candidates. But you can preference up to four candidates, so the result could partly reflect Pirate voters not using preferences fully. There might come a poll or two to try to estimate the exact strength of the Pirate vs Stan.

[Flyersfan232]

Well both the Communists and Social Democrats getting wiped out is a pretty big moment.

Is there really no hope for either of them?

Cssd yes but communists are dead

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/novinkycz/status/1447156808297205760?s=20

Zeman hospitalized, probably he is in very bad condition

Who becomes acting president should the worst happens?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well both the Communists and Social Democrats getting wiped out is a pretty big moment.

Is there really no hope for either of them?

There's precedent in the Czech Republic for established parties dropping out of parliament and then reviving. However, they'll need good leadership and favourable conditions, and it's not obvious that they'll have them.

Wasn't KDU-ČSL the only party that managed to do this?

Yes, but that's precedent.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/novinkycz/status/1447156808297205760?s=20

Zeman hospitalized, probably he is in very bad condition

Who becomes acting president should the worst happens?

I assume, if it's like other countries, the Speaker of Parliament assumes the role.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/novinkycz/status/1447156808297205760?s=20

Zeman hospitalized, probably he is in very bad condition

Who becomes acting president should the worst happens?

I assume, if it's like other countries, the Speaker of Parliament assumes the role.

Apparently, the powers are split between the Prime Minister and the Speaker.

[Estrella]

Article 66 of the Constitution:
If the office of the Presidency becomes vacant and before new President of the Republic has been elected or has taken the oath of office, likewise if the President of the Republic is, for serious reasons, incapable of performing his duties, and if the Assembly of Deputies and the Senate adopt resolution to this effect, the performance of the presidential duties under Article 63, paragraph 1, letters a) b) c) d) e) h) i) j) and Article 63, paragraph 2 shall devolve upon the Prime Minister. In any period in which the Prime Minister is performing the above-specified presidential duties, the performance of the duties under Article 62, letters a) b) c) d) e) k) and l) shall devolve upon the Chairperson of the Assembly of Deputies; if the office of the Presidency becomes vacant during period in which the Assembly of Deputies is dissolved, the performance of these functions shall devolve upon the Chairperson of the Senate.

Prime Minister's powers according to Article 63:
a. represents the state externally;
b. negotiates and ratifies international treaties; he may delegate the negotiation of international treaties to the government or, with its consent, to individual members thereof;
c. is the supreme commander of the armed forces;
d. receives heads of diplomatic missions;
e. accredits and recalls heads of diplomatic missions;
i. appoints judges;
j. has the right to issue amnesties.
2. The President of the Republic also possesses powers which are not explicitly enumerated in constitutional acts if statute so provides.

Speaker's powers according to Article 62:
a. appoints and recalls the Prime Minister and other members of the government and accepts their resignations, recalls the government and accepts its resignation;
b. convenes sessions of the Assembly of Deputies;
c. may dissolve the Assembly of Deputies;
d. shall entrust the government whose resignation he has accepted, or which he has recalled, with the temporary performance of its duties until new government is appointed;
e. shall appoint Justices of the Constitutional Court, its Chairperson and Vice-Chairpersons;
k. shall appoint members of the Banking Council of the Czech National Bank;
l. shall call referendum on the Czech Republic’s accession to the European Union and declare the result thereof.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the bright side for CSSD is that if Babis does go away (?) because he finds being in opposition tedious, I can't see why ANO would do anything bar collapse under its sheer incoherent nature, leading to a lot more "naturally" left leaning types to have their vote free types; maybe even the total flop of the Pirates could lead the social progressives in the Soc Dems to try and make a play there (although trying to play for both would probably be a very tricky bet).

Communists are dead though - their whole gimmick was being a nostalgic testimonial party, something they couldn't do while actually propping up the government, no point for them anymore.

[Estrella]

...if Babis does go away (?) because he finds being in opposition tedious...

I wouldn't believe him if he was a "normal" politician, but self-made* millionaires who decide to have a go at politics can handle being in opposition only if they believe that government is around the corner.

_{* of course there's no such thing as a self-made millionaire unless you somehow printed all that money yourself, but that's neither here nor there}

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

the bright side for CSSD is that if Babis does go away (?) because he finds being in opposition tedious, I can't see why ANO would do anything bar collapse under its sheer incoherent nature, leading to a lot more "naturally" left leaning types to have their vote free types; maybe even the total flop of the Pirates could lead the social progressives in the Soc Dems to try and make a play there (although trying to play for both would probably be a very tricky bet).

Communists are dead though - their whole gimmick was being a nostalgic testimonial party, something they couldn't do while actually propping up the government, no point for them anymore.

In theory, Jana Maláčová, the Labour and Social Affairs Minister and possible leader-in-waiting, is one of the most popular politicians in the country, so there could be potential there.

Of course, this assumes the CSSD will actually make her leader rather than another one of the Blustering Morons Easily Overawed by Zeman tendency.

[RGM2609]

If STAN got 34 seats, ODS got 33 and nothing else changed, who would have been the Prime Ministerial proposal?

[Diouf]

If STAN got 34 seats, ODS got 33 and nothing else changed, who would have been the Prime Ministerial proposal?

Still Petr Fiala with SPOLU being larger. STAN is led by the very popular Vit Rakusan, who ended up getting the most preference votes, and will presumably get a significant job in a new government.

STAN and Pirates btw said tonight that they will form separate parliamentary groups. Both parties will be a part of the government negotiations, and said the lower Pirate MP tally did not mean it should just get one, peripheral minister post if a common cabinet is formed.

[Pericles]

I don't follow Czech politics, but I saw the Covid death toll is one of the worst per capita in the world and the numbers were truly horrific in the last winter. Did that affect the result of the election?

[RGM2609]

If STAN got 34 seats, ODS got 33 and nothing else changed, who would have been the Prime Ministerial proposal?

Still Petr Fiala with SPOLU being larger. STAN is led by the very popular Vit Rakusan, who ended up getting the most preference votes, and will presumably get a significant job in a new government.

STAN and Pirates btw said tonight that they will form separate parliamentary groups. Both parties will be a part of the government negotiations, and said the lower Pirate MP tally did not mean it should just get one, peripheral minister post if a common cabinet is formed.

I was thinking that Rakusan could demand the Prime Ministership in such a scenario with STAN the largest party within the coalition. But Fiala is still the most logical option.

Well that is...unusually kind. The Pirates could have really been left for dead.

[Astatine]

I don't follow Czech politics, but I saw the Covid death toll is one of the worst per capita in the world and the numbers were truly horrific in the last winter. Did that affect the result of the election?

Deriving from what the reports of the German edition of Radio Prague tell me, this election was overwhelmingly seen as a referendum on Babiš with Covid being pretty much a non-issue.

At least to me it appears like a pattern that the more we move away from the initial outbreaks last year, the less does Covid matter in elections in Europe. Everyone who wanted has had the chance to get vaccinated for quite a while now in most European countries, and large-scaled lockdowns are likely to be very unpopular and will face some sort of resistance, so it would be electoral suicide in most countries. Could be completely wrong though and I myself am not really a fan of trying to find "global election trends & patterns".

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

STAN and Pirates btw said tonight that they will form separate parliamentary groups. Both parties will be a part of the government negotiations, and said the lower Pirate MP tally did not mean it should just get one, peripheral minister post if a common cabinet is formed.

Now that it's been said out loud, why do I get the feeling that's exactly what's going to happen?

[Diouf]

The Senate Constitutional Committee will meet on Tuesday 19th, and according to a number of senators, they will discuss whether to activate Article 66 of the Constitution. Zeman is in the Central Military Hospital in Prague in the so-called ARO (Anaesthesiology and Resuscitation Department) - the highest level of intensive care.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know that this is not a very substantive post, but Petr Fiala looks like Rian Johnson, and I can't unsee it.

[crals]

The Pirates aren't necessary for a majority, if they don't get a good deal they should probably stay in opposition.

[Colbert]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

how do you calculate the share of each party in those coalitions ? On the official czech result site, I can't find this information
(I hate coalitions without clear share vote)

https://www.volby.cz/pls/ps2021/ps11?xjazyk=CZ&xv=1&xt=2
All I did was to check the affiliation of each candidate on the top of each coalition list.

Thanks for the answer

[Flyersfan232]

If STAN got 34 seats, ODS got 33 and nothing else changed, who would have been the Prime Ministerial proposal?

isn’t it opposite

[Diouf]

I get the following results when looking at the distributions of personal vote preferences.
Pirates overall getting a little less than a third of the preferential votes. 32,69% vs. 67,31% for STAN. Closest to parity in Prague.
So while STAN deserved the clearly bigger share, the Pirates were really hard done by. With the coalition only winning 1-2 seats in many regions, they almost exclusively won the seats by being the bigger party. STAN probably also benefited from the possibility of giving up to 4 preferences.

Piráti;STAN
Jihočeský. 32,76%; 67,24%
Jihomoravský. 34,71%; 65,29%
Karlovarský. 31,95%; 68,05%
Královéhradecký. 26,70%; 73,30%
Liberecký. 18,61%; 81,39%
Moravskoslezský. 43,41%; 56,59%
Olomoucký. 33,57%; 66,43%
Pardubický. 37,86%; 62,14%
Plzeňský. 32,79%; 67,21%
Středočeský. 19,43%;80,57%
Ústecký. 43,83%; 56,17%
Vysočina. 27,93%; 72,07%
Zlínský. 28,44%; 71,56%
Hl. m. Praha. 48,18%;51,82%

[Shilly]

Here's a map of mine.

Some of the party colors are arbitrary because they can't all be blue.
As always, open in new tab for full size.