Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The KSCM have dropped their support for Babis. I assume this is not unconnected to their current abysmal polling.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1381696818933796864

[Diouf]

The KSCM have dropped their support for Babis. I assume this is not unconnected to their current abysmal polling.

They are in a somewhat similar situation to CSSD in that regard, but to me it seems strange that KSCM should be more willing to stop cooperation. While they are of course further from ANO on economic questions, KSCM does not have much of an urban liberal-leaning anti-Babis wing like CSSD. And I'm still wondering whether the old communist electorate really is opposed to tough state covid restrictions, which the party have criticized.

The wildly different Czech polls also makes it hard to gauge exactly how bad things are. Median usually has them between 7-8%, while the new Data Collect pollster has them on 2.7%. The average of the March polling from the six different pollsters were 5.1%, so just above the threshold.

The Communists have had these talks about confidence in the government since February, where they have discussed how much of the governing agreement has been kept. I believe their offical judgement is that around 60% of it has been kept. Among the non-kept promises, they were quite angry about the government "cheating" them in terms of military expenses, where a cut had been agreed in the budget, but the government then funnelled funds to the military department from another department. KSCM pushed the government to publish a proposal for the establishment of a state-owned development bank, which can provide loans to companies and local governments, but there was no deadlines in the proposal to ensure its adoptation within the end of the term. And ANO today voted against a Communist proposal on ensuring five weeks of holiday for all employees, which the KCSM leadership describe as the straw breaking the camel's bag.

KCSM has said they will support a no-confidence motion put forward by other parties, but the question then is what SPD does. Anyways, the election seems unlikely to be moved from the date on 8-9 October. Parliament cannot be dissolved during the last three months of its term. And the new electoral law still needs to go through the senate and be signed by the President. Media assume the new law can be in force in early July.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And I'm still wondering whether the old communist electorate really is opposed to tough state covid restrictions, which the party have criticized.

I found that strange too (particularly the demand to open ski lifts - what?). Does KSCM have much of a 'business wing' these days?

They are in a somewhat similar situation to CSSD in that regard, but to me it seems strange that KSCM should be more willing to stop cooperation. While they are of course further from ANO on economic questions, KSCM does not have much of an urban liberal-leaning anti-Babis wing like CSSD.

I've been reading about Jana Maláčová lately and I get the impression she's been quite effective as a minister for someone representing a small coalition partner, maybe that influences it?

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/AndrejBabis/status/1383498261042851845

[Diouf]

SPD says they will vote for the no-confidence motion, so there will be a majority for no confidence. Babis has said he is not calling a confidence motion, but the centre-right coalition has said they will do so if Babis does not do it himself before Friday. However, there is not agrement what to happen after that fact. Pirati/STAN says they want early elections, while the previous message from the centre-right alliance was that it was impossible before the new electoral law is adopted, but in the end it sounds like a technical question. I assume they both want an early election with the new electoral law, if possible. The bigger problem is that the Communists and SPD do not want early election, and at least SPD has said they would then want a Zeman-chosen temporary expert government. The argument that power is left to Zeman is an often-heard argument about the no-confidence motion.

Filip will lead the Communists at the election. A majority at the party's Central Committee voted to remove him, but such a vote needs a 2/3 majority which it lacked. Instead Filip has indicated he will resign at the party congress after the election.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1385307764738727937

[Diouf]

A big hit for TOP09 as their most prominent MP Dominik Feri resigns from parliament and withdraws his candidature for the election after accusations of sexually predatory behaviour. Deníku N has described several incidents of this behaviour from 2015 - 2020. Feri says: "I don't want false and manipulative articles in the media to harm my immediate surroundings or my colleagues. I'll defend myself against them in the courts. It was an extraordinary honor to serve and be your MP". Feri admits inappropriate behaviour, but rejects that he physically forced himself on women: "I am sorry for all these failures and deeply and sincerely apologize for them. Although I have learned from mistakes, nothing can be dismissed just because I was simply young and now I live differently. I've come a long way trying to overcome my shortcomings. I believe I'm headed in the right direction."

https://twitter.com/CT24zive/status/1397248726171795472

[Diouf]

Babis just survived a vote of confidence as the Communists decided to abstain. Filip had previously said that the party would support the motion of no-confidence, but he has clearly lost control of the party, who forced him into retreat. It ended with a compromise of abstaining. TOP09, ODS, KDU-CSL, Pirates, STAN, Trikolora and SPD all supported the motion, while ANO and CSSD of course opposed it. So 89 MPs voted for the motion and 82 against but an absolute majority of 101 members in favour is needed for a no confidence motion to pass.

In his speech, Filip criticized the government for being too aggressive against Russia, and for not doing the promised health insurance merger. However, he argued for abstaining due to his fear of opposition parties taking over, fearing another wave of privatizations as seen by the governments of Topolanek and Necas. Babis himself seem to have defined the Pirates as his main opponent. In his speech, he declared himself the guarantee against a "multicultural, fanatical Pirate state", and that he did not want green extremists from the European Parliament running the country from abroad.

[rob in cal]

So would the Pirates be considered as on the "right" ? Some articles i've read implied this, but Babis is apparently trying to portray them as similar to the Greens of other countries. Intresting that the communists have supported Babis up till now, and still would be but for the expulsion of the Russian diplomats. apparently.

If current polls hold steady, whats the most likely new government? Would Spolo support a Pirate government?

[Diouf]

So would the Pirates be considered as on the "right" ? Some articles i've read implied this, but Babis is apparently trying to portray them as similar to the Greens of other countries. Intresting that the communists have supported Babis up till now, and still would be but for the expulsion of the Russian diplomats. apparently.

If current polls hold steady, whats the most likely new government? Would Spolo support a Pirate government?

No, I don't think the Pirates are generally considered on the right. When Filip warns against a new wave of privatization, it is mainly against former government parties like ODS and TOP09. The biggest criticism of Pirates are mainly on the value questions, where the parties with more conservative values attack them for being too far left on climate, immigration, law and order, drugs policy etc. The Pirates are not like a standard greenleft party; they seem more like a semi-technocratic soft left party on economy. So investments in education, digitization and health care and green taxes etc., but also in favour of lowering labour taxes and not wanting to widely expand the public sector. So CSSD and KSCM can criticize them for not having enough focus on the working class. I'm guessing this angle could be quite relevant later, especially if/when a new government is formed, because Pirates would ally with parties who are to their right on economy.

Government formation will not be simple. The biggest dividing line is and has been for or against Babis, and I expect that to continue after the election. So if, as looks likely, Pirati+Stan + Spolu have a majority after the election, I'm sure that they will find a majority together in some way. However, I think it's a complicating factor that Pirati+Stan looks most likely to be the biggest player. I think ODS are very hungry to get back into government and preferably as the leading party, so if Spolu were to become the biggest player, an obvious solution could be that they simply form the government and Pirati + Stan as parliamentary support. However, with the fortunes reversed and Pirati+STAN as the bigger player, it does not seem as easy. I'm not sure Spolu would act like support parties to a Bartos government. Would there then be a government of some, but not all of the parties from each bloc, and lead by who? And in all scenarioes, there are real political differences. Pirates and TOP09 and STAN towards a social liberal end, while ODS and KDU-CSL are more conservative. And on economy, the two big players Pirates and ODS are quite a bit apart.

Government formation of course becomes very complicated if CSSD ends up with decisive seats between Pirati+STAN+Spolu and ANO+SPD+KSCM. I still think such a scenario would end up with an Anti-Babis majority as CSSD would not be in a majority with SPD, but it would be an extremely complicated formation process.

[Conservatopia]

Why are ODS and KDU-CSL so anti-Babis?
I always thought Babis was a fairly standard national liberal and not all that far from Venstre or VVD.  Why can't he work with the right?

[Diouf]

Why are ODS and KDU-CSL so anti-Babis?
I always thought Babis was a fairly standard national liberal and not all that far from Venstre or VVD.  Why can't he work with the right?

I think a lot of it is about Babis personally. There are the stories and court cases about which exact role he played in Communist Czechoslovakia, especially in relation to the State Security Police. The investigations regarding EU subsidies fraud for some of his companies, leading to the police recommmending an indictment. And in general, the combination of his role as one of the richest men in Czechia and owner of media outlets alongside his role as PM. So in many of the negotiations, most of the opposition parties have made unrealistic demands like Babis himself not being PM, which was obviously not going to happen.

For ODS, there might also be strategic considerations about not being junior partner to a bigger centre-right party as they see that position as their natural one. For KDU-CSL, they were of course in coalition with him in the Sobotka government, and could have been a natural coalition fodder party if a mainstream centre-right coalition had been formed.

But yes, I agree that politically he is a quite standard national liberal. He has probably moved in a more national and conservative direction over the years. Some of that is probably due to sensing that's where he could appeal to the average Czech, but is probably also due to the mainstream right shunning him, so he has had to work with KSCM and sometimes SPD as well.

[Diouf]

The most recent polls have started to show Přísaha between 4 and 5%. It seems like a di Pietro throwback. Přísaha translates as oath and is a party founded by Robert Šlachta, who gained publicity as the investigator in the 2013 corruption scandals, which ended with the fall of the Necas cabinet.
Šlachta is campaigning mostly on an anti-corruption platform. Right now, he is focusing a lot on some dodgy deals in relation to covid-19 equipment ("They are traffickers of Chinese respirators. Dodgy companies with offices in the Caribbean, linked to criminally prosecuted lobbyists, and with car wash branches in Ukraine.") He wants an audit of all public procurement in the covid-19 era
Other than that the party's program is mostly about simplicity, transparency and equality, e.g. a simpler criminal law system, equality for the law, an open register of companies receiving subsidies, a simpler benefit system etc. Some classic, horrible slogans like "One new law equals two old ones away".

So far, Šlachta has wanted to keep himself out of all political cooperation, ""We are campaigning on the program we adopted, and there is no way we are going into government. I don't see any offers. We're not going to negotiate anything in advance with anyone." He says cooperation will be something to be dealt with after the election, but says he's not ruling anyone out.

He calls the party a centrist one, and describes his personality as a conservative one, focused on issues like tradition and honesty. But when asked about gay marriage f.ex., he does not state clearly how he would vote, and says it would be a free vote for his MPs.

There are rumours about ties of the party to prominent figures from the previous anti-corruption party VV, who was in government in 2010-2012. Necas himself accused Šlachta of being close to VV minister Vít Bárta, who was later in a corruption case himself.

[Estrella]

I regret to tell you that the senile old alcoholic in Prague Castle chose to open his mouth on a number topics. tl;dr sufragettes bad, #metoo bad, Pride bad because "when someone demonstrates their sexual orientation, they think they're above others" but he "understands homosexuals", on the other hand "these transgender [sic], they really are fundamentally disgusting to me". He also declared he is going to send his castle guards (think Yeoman Warders) to help with cleaning up after a tornado in Moravia.

For those unfamiliar with him, the greatest hits of Miloš Zeman include being visibly drunk at a ceremony involving crown jewels, "so where do we have the ashtray, Mr. Director?", and using the Czech word for "cꭒnt" in live radio.

[Estrella]

Hungary's Orban hits Czech campaign trail to back PM Babis

*throws up*

[Astatine]

Hungary's Orban hits Czech campaign trail to back PM Babis

*throws up*

So why exactly is ANO a member of Renew Europe/ALDE apart from satisfying Guy Verhofstadt's fetish to increase the size of the parliamentary group he's member of?

[Estrella]

Hungary's Orban hits Czech campaign trail to back PM Babis

*throws up*

So why exactly is ANO a member of Renew Europe/ALDE apart from satisfying Guy Verhofstadt's fetish to increase the size of the parliamentary group he's member of?

Czech politics is a bit of a mystery to me, but as I understand it, ANO started out wanting take advantage of the implosion of ODS (after the whole economic crisis/corruptions scandals/PM's mistress ordering the intelligence agency to monitor his wife thing) and that's why they entered ALDE. They never had any ideological convictions besides what Dear Leader says, and slowly drifted towards being a sort of secular PiS, in turn taking votes of Social Democrats of the Zeman sort. Which, come to think about it, is exactly what Orbán did in the 90s - transforming from a libertarian student leader to the Viktor we know and do not love today.

[Zinneke]

whats the reaction to Babis getting exposed as a crook then?

[Estrella]

whats the reaction to Babis getting exposed as a crook then?

"Oh, another one?"

This is like the millionth Babiš corruption scandal and honestly I don't think it will change much.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Czech politics is a bit of a mystery to me,

That's all that people need to know about Czech politics, but one more thing is a mystery to me, how the hell is ANO still first in the polls???

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Czech politics is a bit of a mystery to me,

That's all that people need to know about Czech politics, but one more thing is a mystery to me, how the hell is ANO still first in the polls???

Because they've managed to run a very successful character assassination on the Pirates (helped by them somehow not realising they'd be attacked), and the ODS can be politely described as 'psychotic'.

[Diouf]

Tonight is the so-called "Super Debate" between the major party leaders ahead of the election on Friday and Saturday. It seems like Vit Rakusan will represent PiratiStan, which I guess is an attempt to show the more palatable face of that alliance despite the Pirate party being the much larger party. For SPOLU, it is of course ODS leader Petr Fiala. In addition to the six parties/party alliances elected in 2017, the debate will also include two parties/party alliances trying to pass the treshold this time. Robert Šlachta from Prisaha and Zuzana Majerová Zahradníková for the Trikolora-led alliance.

[Mike88]

Will there be more polling until Thursday evening, or is there some kind of ban?

[PSOL]

Czech politics is a bit of a mystery to me,

That's all that people need to know about Czech politics, but one more thing is a mystery to me, how the hell is ANO still first in the polls???

Because they've managed to run a very successful character assassination on the Pirates (helped by them somehow not realising they'd be attacked), and the ODS can be politely described as 'psychotic'.

Huh?