Czech Politics: Fiala government

[PSOL]

Is this the end for the Pirate movement?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Idnes still has STAN on 34 seats and the Pirates on 4.

[Mike88]

ANO and SPOLU now tied with 71 seats each.

[rob in cal]

Would the Stan faction make easier coalition partners for Spolu than pirates?

[Diouf]

Idnes still has STAN on 34 seats and the Pirates on 4.

Yeah, it seemed like it was just an outdated graphic from CT24, or on based on candidates position on the lists and not personal votes.

Idnes has this comment: "There is disillusionment and disappointment in the jihlavském campaign headquarters of the Pirates and STAN coalition. The pirate part of the coalition was surprised by how the STAN candidates jumped them massively in the elections thanks to voter preferences. "I did not expect such a scenario," said blanka Lednická from Pirates. She didn't make it to the House either. Stan's top players are no longer on the campaign staff, they went to Prague to celebrate. Only the Pirates remained at the scene."

Bartos said that, considering the result, they are considering a common group in parliament.

[Logical]

Perhaps the CSSD and KSCM should just merge. Call it a National Front.

[Logical]

Near final seat count by party according to idnes.cz

ANO 72 (-6)
ODS 34 (+9)
STAN 33 (+27)
KDU-CSL 23 (+13)
SPD 20 (-2)
TOP09 14 (+7)
Pirati 4 (-18)
CSSD 0 (-15)
KSCM 0 (-15)

Majority : 101
STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 = 104
STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 + Pirati = 108
ANO + SPD = 92

KDU-CSL actually overperformed their assigned places on the list slightly, but not as much STAN did. I don't think I've ever seen a supposed leading coalition partner get screwed as badly as Pirati did.

[Diouf]

Babis said talks with the President about the post-election government will start on Wednesday. He still says he wants to be in government and wants to talk with SPOLU about this. Zeman will probably try what he can to sabotage SPOLU - PiratiSTAN, but I'm guessing we will soon see talks start between the two coalitions.

[Diouf]

50/200 elected MP are women. The highest proportion ever, beating the previous record of 44 from 2010 and 2017.

[Lief 🗽]

What is the significance of Zeman appointing Babis as PM? If the anti-ANO parties have a majority they can just pass a no confidence vote, right? But the media makes it sound like this would be a constitutional crisis of some sort.

[Diouf]

SPOLU and PiratiSTAN sign memorandum to negotiate new government together



The two opposition blocs have moved quickly, and tonight signed a memorandum to start negotiations about a new government, and not enter into negotiations with other parties.

The text in the memorandum is as follows:

Together the five political entities of the ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, Czech Pirate Party, Mayors and Independents, grouped in two electoral blocks, reflect the will of the citizens of the Czech Republic, expressed by the fact that these parties and movements won a majority of parliamentary seats in the election.

Aware of our responsibilities, we declare our willingness to form a government of the Czech Republic together.

We are hereby asking the President of the Czech Republic to entrust Petr Fiala with negotiations on the formation of such a government.

We declare and confirm our previous public statements that none of the signatories to this memorandum will enter into negotiations with any other political entity.

We agree that in the coming days our joint negotiations will continue to address specific programme areas and future political arrangements.

[Diouf]

What is the significance of Zeman appointing Babis as PM? If the anti-ANO parties have a majority they can just pass a no confidence vote, right? But the media makes it sound like this would be a constitutional crisis of some sort.

Yes, parliament would just vote no confidence in him right away. The problem is if Zeman never proposes Fiala as PM. If Zeman really plays hardball, it seems like the constitutional options are for the Senate to charge him with high treason in front of the constitutional court or a joint Senate-Chamber motion that the President is incapable of performing his duties (which, considering Zeman's health problems, might not even be far from the truth). In the latter situation, the chair of parliament takes over the function of appointing the PM. This is just from reading the constitution. There might be other options.

In any case, I don't really think Zeman will block Fiala if there is agreement on a new government. As I recall there was some doubts back about him appointing Sobotka, an enemy from his opposite wing in CSSD, but ended up doing it. Maybe Zeman has become slightly more unhinged since then, and Pirate-phobia might be used as an argument by him this time, but I think he will appoint Fiala.

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post article calls out the Pandora Papers leak as the main driver for the success of the opposition parties and unseating Babis.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/czech-elections-babis-pandora-papers/2021/10/09/2bb985e2-2851-11ec-8739-5cb6aba30a30_story.html

[Flyersfan232]

Perhaps the CSSD and KSCM should just merge. Call it a National Front.

Popular front*

[Diouf]

I calculated the distribution of seats, which explain why ANO ends up with one more seat than SPOLU despite getting fewer votes. Because only four entities ended above the threshold, the number of votes for parties above 5% in each region was relatively low. This means the Imperiali quota in each region was relatively low. Therefore we actually ended up with distributing too many seats via the regional distribution. The parties crossed the Imperial Quotas 202 times, but there are only 200 seats to distribute. In a calculation of the 2017 results with 9 parties above the threshold, the parties only crossed the quota 166 times. Had just one of the parties above the threshold passed it, the quota would have been reached 194 times.

The 202 seat distribution gave the following result: ANO 73, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 38, SPD 21
In three regions, the Imperiali Quota was reached more times than there was seats available: Pardubický kraj, Kraj Vysočina and Olomoucký kraj. Therefore the seat which crossed the quota most marginally in each region was removed. This cost ANO a seat in Pardubický kraj, PiratiSTAN a seat in Kraj Vysočina and SPD a seat in Olomoucký kraj.
So with the regional distribution complete, the seat count was: ANO 72, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.
Then there was only one leveling seat to distribute. Because SPOLU had the highest number of surplus votes after the regional distribution, they received the leveling seat. The remaining seat was in Středočeský kraj.
Therefore we end up at ANO 72, SPOLU 71, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.

[Logical]

I calculated the distribution of seats, which explain why ANO ends up with one more seat than SPOLU despite getting fewer votes. Because only four entities ended above the threshold, the number of votes for parties above 5% in each region was relatively low. This means the Imperiali quota in each region was relatively low. Therefore we actually ended up with distributing too many seats via the regional distribution. The parties crossed the Imperial Quotas 202 times, but there are only 200 seats to distribute. In a calculation of the 2017 results with 9 parties above the threshold, the parties only crossed the quota 166 times. Had just one of the parties above the threshold passed it, the quota would have been reached 194 times.

The 202 seat distribution gave the following result: ANO 73, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 38, SPD 21
In three regions, the Imperiali Quota was reached more times than there was seats available: Pardubický kraj, Kraj Vysočina and Olomoucký kraj. Therefore the seat which crossed the quota most marginally in each region was removed. This cost ANO a seat in Pardubický kraj, PiratiSTAN a seat in Kraj Vysočina and SPD a seat in Olomoucký kraj.
So with the regional distribution complete, the seat count was: ANO 72, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.
Then there was only one leveling seat to distribute. Because SPOLU had the highest number of surplus votes after the regional distribution, they received the leveling seat. The remaining seat was in Středočeský kraj.
Therefore we end up at ANO 72, SPOLU 71, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.

Is the number of seats each region is assigned determined by the same method? I was wondering why Prague has one fewer seat than the last time.

[rob in cal]

If the threshold was, say, 2% than SPOLU and PiratStan wouldn't be even that close to a majority, but would they still have been likely to form a government, with Prisaha, Communists, Socialists and Tricolor alliance all getting their share of seats?

[Diouf]

Is the number of seats each region is assigned determined by the same method? I was wondering why Prague has one fewer seat than the last time.

Basically yes. A quota is made of all valid votes/seat number. And then seats are distributed to each region according to how many times it reaches the threshold. If there are seats left they go to the biggest remainder. So Praha lost a seat to Usti region this way. Turnout in Praha remained the highest in the country, but it went up more in many of the other regions, so a seat down compared to 2017 for Praha.

[Logical]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

[Flyersfan232]

Czechia staying in the v4 group I take it?

[Colbert]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

how do you calculate the share of each party in those coalitions ? On the official czech result site, I can't find this information
(I hate coalitions without clear share vote)

[Logical]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

how do you calculate the share of each party in those coalitions ? On the official czech result site, I can't find this information
(I hate coalitions without clear share vote)

https://www.volby.cz/pls/ps2021/ps11?xjazyk=CZ&xv=1&xt=2
All I did was to check the affiliation of each candidate on the top of each coalition list.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well both the Communists and Social Democrats getting wiped out is a pretty big moment.

Is there really no hope for either of them?

[😥]

https://twitter.com/novinkycz/status/1447156808297205760?s=20

Zeman hospitalized, probably he is in very bad condition

[Mike88]

From what I read, his condition is a mystery as his office is very vague regarding his medical condition and only says he's fit enough to fulfill his constitutional duties as President. It's an odd situation, frankly.