Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Kentuckian]

How accurate has TargetSmart been in the past? I've never watched their numbers until this year.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054425836693143552

Thanks, that tweet puts some really good context on the TX numbers.

So this is 100k votes by mail cast in TX so far.

97.48% of those votes are from people age 65+...

And Republicans are only up (insofar as generic partisanship is an indicator) by about 10 points with that group consisting almost entirely of Seniors.

Those are ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC numbers for Dems. If they can do anything like keep it within 10 among Seniors, then Beto could actually win.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How accurate has TargetSmart been in the past? I've never watched their numbers until this year.

It is a solid and well established voter data company used by Dem/Progressive groups. The modeling is definitely going to be as solid as anything you can get as an indicator of generic partisanship. Of course, it does not necessarily indicate candidate support in particular races, which will differ somewhat from generic partisanship.

Of course, reporters analysis of this data is likely to be misleading, but that does not mean you should dismiss the data, which I would be 100% confident is solid.

[Ebsy]

Their modelling is far from solid lol.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Their modelling is far from solid lol.

It is about as accurate as modeling of partisanship can be in states that don't have voter registration. If you want to criticize it, name some other modeling that is substantially better.

If you are expecting perfect accuracy or near perfect accuracy for every individual voter, of course it is not that, but there is no such modeling available from anyone.

[Ebsy]

I think modelling partisanship based on voter registration (not party registration) is inane in the extreme, so I don't think anyone's attempt will succeed. Anyone who has used either the Democrats' or Republicans' voter contact software can tell you that it is next to impossible to model partisanship in the voter universe, and I don't believe TargetSmart can get over the hurdles.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Those early voting numbers look rough. Looks like the Kavanaugh bump stuck.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Those early voting numbers look rough. Looks like the Kavanaugh bump stuck.

They do look rough. For the Republicans.

If you know what you are looking at and have realistic expectations, these are great #s for Dems.

For example:

Wisconsin ---

59.53% of the voters are Seniors and 90.63% white, but Modeled GOP only has a 3% lead over Modeled Dem. That is amazing for Dems - if it is at all close among a voters skewed that strongly Senior/White in WI, expect a Dem landslide.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It looks like Harris County TX (Houston) is on pace to probably EXCEED 2016 PRESIDENTIAL election early vote turnout today once everyone standing in line votes.

https://twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1054486924197539840

And in 2016, the polls opened 1 hour earlier and closed 1 hour later.

Insane turnout in Houston so far, and apparently across much of TX.

[ON Progressive]

It looks like Harris County TX (Houston) is on pace to probably EXCEED 2016 PRESIDENTIAL election early vote turnout today once everyone standing in line votes.

And in 2016, the polls opened 1 hour earlier and closed 1 hour later.

Insane turnout in Houston so far, and apparently across much of TX.

Wouldn't Texas be the one state where you'd expect massive turnout to favour Democrats more than anywhere else in the union?

[Xing]

While I'd normally point out that extremely high turnout (2016-like turnout) would imply that Republicans are turning out in high numbers as well, the fact is, if turnout is like this in Texas, that probably means that a lot of new voters or "unlikely" voters are turning out, which definitely helps Democrats more.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

While I'd normally point out that extremely high turnout (2016-like turnout) would imply that Republicans are turning out in high numbers as well, the fact is, if turnout is like this in Texas, that probably means that a lot of new voters or "unlikely" voters are turning out, which definitely helps Democrats more.

Yeah, there is no way high turnout is bad for Dems in TX. Either it is more people who would normally vote either later in the early voting period or on election day deciding to vote earlier this time (in which case it makes no difference, since they would vote anyway), or else it is people who do not normally vote, which in TX skews way more Dem. Most likely, it is some combination of those two things.

As an example of this, Republicans currently have a lead in the TargetSmart modeled partisanship in TX of 11,052 voters (56,783 to 45,731).

But that lead is almost entirely from voters that TargetSmart categorizes as "Super Voters" - about 14% of registered voters who will always vote no matter what. Just among Super Voters, Rs have a lead of 10,895 voters (37,559 to 26,664).

But among the other 86% of registered voters, people who are NOT super voters (Frequent, Infrequent, and New voters), it is basically dead even: 19,224 modeled GOP to 19,067 modeled Dem.


And remember, all of this is just among absentee ballots by mail, and is 97.48% made up of people age 65+. This is without any of the in-person votes cast today.

!!!!!!!!!

So it will be very interesting to see the #s when in-person early voting starts to get added in.

[bilaps]

I complement all this research (no sarcasm) but in my opinion you can't make any calculations based on this reports, no matter what turnout it is today or even until the election day. Especially in a state big as Texas. Conclusions just cannot be made from these "informations".

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1054462428078063619

Unless it fits my narrative, as is evidenced by this thread.

[RI]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

As others have pointed out, these numbers are worthless unless you include how they compare to previous years.

Overall AZ is currently 44.7 R - 32.4 D - 22.4 U. I don't have daily numbers, but the final 2016 distribution appears to be 40 R - 34 D - 25 U while 2012 was 43.1 R - 32.5 D - 24.3 U.

[Gass3268]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

As others have pointed out, these numbers are worthless unless you include how they compare to previous years.

Overall AZ is currently 44.7 R - 32.4 D - 22.4 U. I don't have daily numbers, but the final 2016 distribution appears to be 40 R - 34 D - 25 U while 2012 was 43.1 R - 32.5 D - 24.3 U.

Thanks for this! I know the Dems are currently behind, but they appear to be closing a bit. Also for anyone to win statewide they are gonna need to convert registered Republicans.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another big day in Clark https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054508750390743040

[Xing]

Another big day in Clark https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054508750390743040

That's good, but it'll be important to see if the party breakdown is more like Saturday or Sunday.

[libertpaulian]

Another big day in Clark https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054508750390743040

Dang.

[Minnesota Mike]

Day 1 early Voting in Broward County - 16,202 voters. Day 1 in 2014,  6,459 voters.

https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Images/EVGeneral2018Day.pdf


https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Documents/ElectionInformation/2014_General_Election_E205__Early_Voting_Totals.pdf

[ajc0918]

Day 1 early Voting in Broward County - 16,202 voters. Day 1 in 2014,  6,459 voters.

https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Images/EVGeneral2018Day.pdf


https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Documents/ElectionInformation/2014_General_Election_E205__Early_Voting_Totals.pdf

Pinellas County saw 2,707 early voters compared to 984 on Day 1 of 2014.

[Confused Democrat]

Day 1 early Voting in Broward County - 16,202 voters. Day 1 in 2014,  6,459 voters.

https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Images/EVGeneral2018Day.pdf


https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Documents/ElectionInformation/2014_General_Election_E205__Early_Voting_Totals.pdf

Were gonna bring it home for Nelson and Gillum here in FL!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Day 1 early Voting in Broward County - 16,202 voters. Day 1 in 2014,  6,459 voters.

https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Images/EVGeneral2018Day.pdf


https://www.browardsoe.org/Portals/Broward/Documents/ElectionInformation/2014_General_Election_E205__Early_Voting_Totals.pdf

What was it in 2016?

[Hindsight was 2020]

BTW the guy who runs TargetSmart thinks NBC article isn’t a correct interpretation of his data https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054530925323845633

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054558729935323136

Democrats win Washoe by a sizeable margin again. High numbers of votes as well.