Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

It has started:

https://twitter.com/VoteBristol/status/1040595281052622849

[Gass3268]

We are all going to learn our lesson from 2016 and not overexaggerate the early vote numbers, right?

[Gass3268]

Who's excited for our first Michael McDonald post of the year:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1040634128255922183

[Gass3268]

Early voting started in Wisconsin today.

Also any way we can get this stickied to to the top?

[Gass3268]

Absentee voting started in Virginia today too. You have to have an excuse, but they are pretty liberal on that interpretation as it includes long transportation to work or having to take the DC Metro/VRE train. This means almost all of NoVa has a built in excuse if they want to vote early.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MNSteveSimon/status/1045412398591614977

[Gass3268]

I remember the early vote in NOVA being nuts last year, but it looks like they are shattering last year's marks:

https://twitter.com/voteLoudoun123/status/1050032756946862081

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1050064380962820096

[Gass3268]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

What’s the typical breakdown in FL on the early vote

Not sure on the specific numbers, but mail vote is generally good for Republicans while in-person is good for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Absentee voting is up 92.4% in Virginia compared to last year's state elections.

VA-10 in particular is up 153.7%.

Source

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale update out of Florida

While Republicans are currently up 6.31% with ballots returned, this is about only half the margin that was present at this point in 2014.

[Gass3268]

Latest FL numbers

Republicans 346,447
Democrats 300,473   
Other 4,205
NPA 136,122
Total 787,247

Democrats gained about another .5%

[Gass3268]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

[Gass3268]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

I believe this is the first year that MN offered real no-excuse early voting, which is why its numbers are so large (I believe prior to this year, you had to send a letter to the board of elections detailing a justifiable reason to vote early). I know they didn't have it in 2014.

I think 2016 was the first year it was available.

[Gass3268]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Oh that's right, I forgot about that site.

So far looks like only half of 2016's first day. >= 25k (assuming end of day ends around there) would be more in line with 2010.

He's now saying it was at 27K by 5 PM

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053812676957134848

Clark was about 71% of the total early vote on the first day of 2016. We'll know soon what % it is of the early vote today.

They still have another two hours in some Vegas sites too.

[Gass3268]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

[Gass3268]

Hopefully in person early voting #'s in FL will be just as good tomorrow.

Mail in vote has been good so far, compared to 2014 the Democrats have cut the Republican lead in half.

[Gass3268]

Folks camped out in Houston to early vote today:

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054345116087918592

[Gass3268]

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting early right now in Senate race states

However they also say that women voters have outpaced men voters in most states (tied in Arizona, behind in Nevada). Also suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in most states (more rural in Montana, urban in Arizona and Texas). Unfortunately no comparisons to past years.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I just posted that.

[Gass3268]

Duval County and Orange County in Florida have both probably passed their 2014 totals for day one of in person voting.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

Of your three examples:

1. Democrats are up in Iowa.
2. Democrats have cut the Republican lead on this day in 2014 in half.
3. Democrats are up in North Carolina.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

Please check your facts.  I don't know about all the states in your list, but Democrats definitely do NOT typically lead the Georgia early vote.  I'm pretty sure they don't in Florida, either.

Republicans generally win VBM, with Democrats winning EV which just started today.

[Gass3268]

Saying “GOP ahead” doesn’t tell us much when looking at EV - one has to compare to previous years. Like FL, where they’re always ahead in mail ins. Question is, by what margin? And analyze from there.

Exactly, Democrats are currently ahead in Florida vs 2014, but behind compared to 2016. That's important information to know.

[Gass3268]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

How big of a lead did the Republicans have in the AZ-08 special before Lesko only ended up winning by 5%? I feel like it was like over 25%.