Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Ebsy]

I believe the large chunk of "other" voters is due to voters no longer being required to indicate their race before their registration is accepted, so a larger chunk of young voters and new registrants are in the "other" category.

[Ebsy]

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.

Yes, these are very significant numbers.

CD breakdown:

https://twitter.com/Alex__Katz/status/1049716819563409408

[Ebsy]

Thank you Michele Reagan! Glad you lost.

[Ebsy]

Iowa 10/10 update:

Democrats returned 2873 ballots to the Republicans' 2100.

[Ebsy]

10/11 Update for Iowa:

Democrats returned 2262 ballots to the Republicans 1615, bringing totals up to 9556 D ballots and 6118 R ballots.

[Ebsy]

RIP Rauner.

[Ebsy]

Iowa 10/12 update:

Democrats returned 2953 ballots today to the Republicans' 1987.

[Ebsy]

Not looking like Dean Heller is going to cruise to reelection by 7 points huh.

[Ebsy]

Iowa Update as of 10/19:

Dem: 76,174   
GOP: 54,685

Democrats keep expanding their raw ballot lead, and hold big leads in IA-01, IA-02 and IA-03.

[Ebsy]

I don’t want to read too much in but Heller can’t afford to do badly in Washoe

But dontcha know Dean Heller is going to win Washoe by 20 points?

[Ebsy]

I believe Democrats tend to gain ground as the early vote period progresses, though someone more familiar with the data could correct me if I am wrong.

[Ebsy]

Clark and Washoe have polling sites open today, so we should be getting updates this evening.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054160972158357504

Scary numbers for the GOP.

[Ebsy]

Washoe numbers are in.

[Ebsy]

The gap closed a bit, but Republicans need to be at least tied in Washoe, don't they?

I'm not exactly sure what number in the early Republicans need in Washoe to stitch together a winning coalition but they certainly need to win it overall, especially if, as it looks to be the case, Clark County is actually voting.

[Ebsy]

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting early right now in Senate race states

However they also say that women voters have outpaced men voters in most states (tied in Arizona, behind in Nevada). Also suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in most states (more rural in Montana, urban in Arizona and Texas). Unfortunately no comparisons to past years.

This is based on inane Targetsmart's "modeled partisanship". Not worth much.

[Ebsy]

This article was ready made for idiots on twitter to share it as if it contains some insight.

TargetSmart are a bunch of idiots.

[Ebsy]

Their modelling is far from solid lol.

[Ebsy]

I think modelling partisanship based on voter registration (not party registration) is inane in the extreme, so I don't think anyone's attempt will succeed. Anyone who has used either the Democrats' or Republicans' voter contact software can tell you that it is next to impossible to model partisanship in the voter universe, and I don't believe TargetSmart can get over the hurdles.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054558729935323136

Democrats win Washoe by a sizeable margin again. High numbers of votes as well.

[Ebsy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

Please read the thread before posting.

[Ebsy]

Anybody know what's up with Cuyahoga I read the EV is not even reaching '14 levels there.

Ohio party registration isn't particularly useful, but you read incorrectly, as it is currently up 14% over 2014.

The big jump is in unaffiliateds, which due to the 2015 law that changed a bunch of partisan affiliated voters to unaffiliated if they did not vote in the past 4 years, meaning that direct comparisons are not exactly accurate.

[Ebsy]

The Williamson County number is key.

[Ebsy]

As pointed out by a helpful posted on AAD, you made an error with the Hidalgo county numbers. You seem to be counting in person and by mail for 2018 but only in person for 2016.

[Ebsy]

The real question is, what was Midland County's early vote on the first day of early voting in 2016? I think we all can agree that 2014 is not the greatest benchmark for this election.