Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Brittain33]

I'm going to add a disclaimer to the thread title because I'm sick of people posting to this thread to tell us to stop talking about the early vote.

[2016]

The Democrats are in some profound Trouble in Arizona...

Here are the latest Figures

Overall
R 227,653
D 164,738
I 113,464

510K Votes have been cast in AZ

Maricopa
R 154,773 / D 100,675 / I 73,520

Pima
D 40,874 / R 34,960 / I 21,465

Not sure how Data Orbital comes up with Sinema + 7 lead.

Registered Republicans are allowed to vote for Sinema just like they did for Tipirneni in AZ-06. Republicans were up by 20, ended up only winning by 5.

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election. All these Polls who are saying McSally gets only 86% of Republicans are crap in my book. I don't buy that.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am not sure where this data comes from, but this is allegedly primary voting history of voters in Bexar County TX (San Antonio).

It looks like this must be only votes by mail, because 98% or so are age 60+

However, it looks like there is an awful lot of Dem primary voting history among those absentee votes:

https://twitter.com/PowerTo94865058/status/1054799876532383745



This is generally a Dem leaning county, but not hugely so, and particularly not among age 60+ voters.

[Brittain33]

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election.

I think it was highly doubtful they would do that for a House election, but they did, and we can't wave away the fact they did or that the polls show Sinema leading. It's possible that Republican defections the last two years all reverse themselves for the general election... if so Dems are in a world of hurt nationally, though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Democrats are in some profound Trouble in Arizona...

Here are the latest Figures

Overall
R 227,653
D 164,738
I 113,464

510K Votes have been cast in AZ

Maricopa
R 154,773 / D 100,675 / I 73,520

Pima
D 40,874 / R 34,960 / I 21,465

Not sure how Data Orbital comes up with Sinema + 7 lead.

It is entirely normal for Rs to have a registration advantage in AZ, much like it is entirely normal for Ds to have a registration advantage in WV. Remember in the AZ-08 special, lots of people thought it would not be as close as it was on the basis of registration.

[Former Kentuckian]

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election.

I think it was highly doubtful they would do that for a House election, but they did, and we can't wave away the fact they did or that the polls show Sinema leading. It's possible that Republican defections the last two years all reverse themselves for the general election... if so Dems are in a world of hurt nationally, though.

We've seen revolt in the Republican suburbs during the Trump era, so it's not unlikely registered Republicans in such areas could defect to Moderate Hero Sinema regardless of whether it's high stakes or not.

[Xing]

You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

They're certainly not that useful for making actual projections, but I think they can alert us to some possibilities, for example, the idea that high Democratic turnout might not be enough to cause a blue wave if Republican turnout is also very high.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

[Dr. Arch]

You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

They're certainly not that useful for making actual projections, but I think they can alert us to some possibilities, for example, the idea that high Democratic turnout might not be enough to cause a blue wave if Republican turnout is also very high.

Perhaps, but those can be disgruntled or disaffected Rs voting D for any number of reasons. The identity of the complete electorate is unknown until Election Day, and there are many turnout gaps that can't be identified when it comes to rural areas as well. The confounds are enormous when they are summed up.

Even when you're looking at parallels, you don't know if they're valid because they may not be analogous.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Looks like all these polls ended up being good-for-nothing when the GOP turns out anyway and there's no marked enthusiasm gap. Game over. Try again in 2022.  

I must confess I’m getting nervous that turnout is getting too high to the point we might have a really polarized result

I'm feeling that the ideal real of high Dem and indy turnout and low GOP turnout is just not going to happen—the Republicans love them some Trump—so I'm putting my hope in Dem turnout being really high and Indys breaking heavily against Trump's party.

Yep, this is 2002 more than 1982. I'm glad you're starting to see that. This is what happens when Dems play identity politics instead of trying to win.

[Nyvin]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

Uhh...no.   Where in the heck did you hear that?

[freepcrusher]

worst case scenario is we get an "en banc" hearing in swing districts (see GA-6) and low turnout in the wwc-heavy districts but that are so republican now that it doesn't matter (SC-5). Politics right now is pretty nasty. It's like both sides are in a race to disenfranchise each other.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

"2016-level turnout" is not a binary state.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

2016 turnout in a State like TX, where 2016 already was the highest turnout in a long time, let alone in a MIDTERM where TX always has less than 40% turnout, yeah.....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also, Tarrant County is beating yesterday hour by hour so far...

[ON Progressive]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

"2016-level turnout" is not a binary state.

Don't even bother. It's hemorrhofoid, the most blatant troll on this site.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

"2016-level turnout" is not a binary state.

I've been seeing people being worried that high turnout means that the GOP is matching the Dems. Why is it suddenly "not a binary state" when the numbers are no longer convenient?

[bilaps]

All NV counties have now updated day 2 and Dems have a total lead of around 3200 votes counting the absentees.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm going to add a disclaimer to the thread title because I'm sick of people posting to this thread to tell us to stop talking about the early vote.

I like it.

[Xing]

All NV counties have now updated day 2 and Dems have a total lead of around 3200 votes counting the absentees.

*4200

[bilaps]

All NV counties have now updated day 2 and Dems have a total lead of around 3200 votes counting the absentees.

*4200

Actualy it's 3800, our math is bad

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

[Xing]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but TargetSmart has uploaded EV data by state, age and other factors and is displaying its models (which again, don't be like NBC and confuse them with vote share). I thought there were maps on there too, based on his tweet image, but I haven't found them yet:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark