Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

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Iowa 10/12 update:

Democrats returned 2953 ballots today to the Republicans' 1987.

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

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Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

Keep in mind that EV in IA skews Democratic and looked deceptively good for Democrats in 2016 as well, though. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions from this.

The thing is that the EV looked comparatively bad in 2016, since the numbers were much stronger for Democrats in 2012. That’s why I’d be curious to see if the EV is better for Democrats than it was in 2014.

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Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

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NV starts today, and I’ll certainly be watching Ralston’s Twitter. As he says, early voting is the most accurate poll in NV.

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Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

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Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

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Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Oh that's right, I forgot about that site.

So far looks like only half of 2016's first day. >= 25k (assuming end of day ends around there) would be more in line with 2010.

He's now saying it was at 27K by 5 PM

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053812676957134848

Clark was about 71% of the total early vote on the first day of 2016. We'll know soon what % it is of the early vote today.

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Some of the smaller counties in Nevada have already reported their numbers:

Carson City had 982 voters today, 47-35 Republican. Much higher than 2014's 594 voters on day 1, but those voters were 53-31 Republican in 2014.

Douglas had 639 voters today, 60-25 Republican. This is down from 2014, when Douglas had 903 voters on day 1. The electorate is also significantly less red, as it was 65-20 Republican in 2014.

Eureka had 25 voters today, 64-16 Republican. Again, this is down from 2014 (38 votes on day 1). It's also a lot less red, as it was a 72-13 GOP electorate in 2014.

Humboldt had 218 voters today, 56-29 Republican. This is up from 2014's 163 votes on day 1, but they were 60-23 Republican in 2014 overall.

Lincoln had 39 voters today, 56-28 Republican. This is exactly a single vote up from 2014 on day 1, but 2014's EV electorate here was 61-26 Republican.

Storey had 195 voters today, 52-27 Republican. This is up from 2014's 125 voters on day 1, and actually a bit more Republican (50-27 Republican in 2014).

White Pine had 81 voters today, 59-21 Republican. Slightly up from 2014's 73 voters on day 1, and a lot more Republican (was 51-35 Republican in 2014).

Dems have to be liking the less Republican electorates in most of these rural areas, and they should especially be happy with the decline of turnout in a couple of these areas.

Nice work! Storey county also stood out to me as being more Republican. I haven't calculated what the 2016 margins were in these counties, but that could be a good point of comparison as well.

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Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Democrats were ahead by a few points in Washoe in 2016 by the end of the first week, but if they're counting absentees, that probably means that Democrats were probably a few points ahead in the in person vote today. It'll be interesting to see how many votes they actually got in Washoe and Clark.

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Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Democrats were ahead by a few points in Washoe in 2016 by the end of the first week, but if they're counting absentees, that probably means that Democrats were probably a few points ahead in the in person vote today. It'll be interesting to see how many votes they actually got in Washoe and Clark.

The in-person vote was 49-34 Democratic today.

https://washoecounty.us/voters/2018electioninformation/18_gen_ab_ev_reports.php

That's pretty good, and turnout was almost 75% what it was on the first day in 2016, putting it above most of the rural counties.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053852986550607872

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Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

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Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

What was the advantage in 2016?

I don't know what it was on the first day, simply that turnout was 39.3K, meaning turnout today was 76.6% what it was in 2016. I do know that the margin for in person voting in Clark county was about about 48.2%-31.6%, so we're pretty close to that right now, but we'll have to see what happens throughout the week.

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It's perfectly plausible and perhaps expected that the Dem early vote in NV might be frontloaded this year.

I'm not sure that follows, since Republicans got a decent turnout in Clark. It was just overwhelmed by even stronger turnout by the Democrats. And even if the election day vote is more Republican-friendly, if Democrats have a large enough advantage going into election day, it's not going to matter. Take what happened in 2016, where the election day vote was far stronger in every state, including NV, than just about anyone expected. However, since the Democrats had such a large advantage in early voting, that wasn't enough to flip NV.

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The Clark numbers are now up. Elko also came in, and while 435 may sound laughable, that’s not too far off from the 2016 number. Only problem for Republicans is that the margin is less Republican than it was for the first week of 2016.

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Clark numbers aren't really that bad for republicans if you consider 2016 as a base year and not 2014. Even Ralston said that there are problems with taking 2014 numbers cause there was no competitive race. When we take Clark numbers (both early vote and absentee numbers) there is 4k difference and around 10% D lead. After week 1 in 2016 lead was 40k votes and 15%.

But Washoe numbers are bad for republicans. They would need much better showing there.

The thing is that, since turnout is lower than 2016, Democrats wouldn't need as large of a lead, in terms of raw votes, to be effectively ahead. Also, as I mentioned, adding up the absentee vote and the in person vote right now isn't really going to give accurate numbers, since we only have one day of in person voting, but we have absentees from a few weeks.

We'll have a better idea how the numbers compare to 2016 by the end of the week.

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Looks like a few hundred more votes were added to Clark, so now it's 30.4K for Saturday. The margin is just about the same in terms of percentage (48.4-33.5 in favor of the Democrats), but that's a slightly larger raw vote margin.

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Great numbers from Washoe! Those numbers would be enough to put the in-person voting lead for Democrats up to 5K, and the overall lead to 3K. And that's before anything from Clark is counted, where we're headed for high turnout as well. It's still early, but today is not suggesting that yesterday was an anomaly.

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Atlas' obsession with diminishing Rosen has been one of the most amusing parts of this cycle for me. Gonna be fun watching the same people deal with her as a senator post-election.

We'll hear lots of hot takes about how Heller ran a terrible campaign and how any Democrat with a pulse could've beaten him. Depending on how good of a night Democrats have, there could be some truth to that, but Rosen really hasn't been a bad candidate. People just forget very quickly how bad polling in Nevada is.

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Looks like turnout was about 23.7K in Clark, but Democrats had a smaller advantage. About 10.4K-8.8K. Their overall advantage for in-person voting in Clark is now 46.5% to 35.1%, smaller than it is in Washoe.

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https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1054253089731969024?s=21

This is rather disappointing, to be honest.

Yeah, though Washoe is encouraging. Hopefully Dems can bring their margin up in Clark tomorrow.

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And here is the part where he says that neither 2014 nor 2010 are great comparisons

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I mean nobody really predicted that Republicans are going to sweep the state like in 2014

I'm not sure he's saying that you can't make comparisons, simply that 2018 being better for Democrats than 2014 is pretty much a given, and that Reid did surprisingly well given the type of year it was nationally. In terms of comparisons to 2014, the question is whether Democrats are doing only somewhat better, or are doing significantly better.

Anyway, Mineral county just got its numbers in. 95 in person votes on Saturday, Republicans got 53 to the Democrats' 31, and 28 absentee votes, Republicans got 14 and Democrats got 12.

Clark also updated its absentees, and it looks like a whopping 19 votes were added. 13 for the Democrats, 2 for the Republicans.

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Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

Uh-oh, you sound nervous. Don't worry, I'm sure election night this year and every year from now on will go just like your username. Most of us don't actually think Beto will win, but the massive turnout among voters who often stay home during midterms is encouraging for many other races.

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Looks like most of the rurals from Saturday which were missing (every county except Lyon) have reported, and cut the Democratic edge to 6.4K for in person voting, 4.2K overall (strange that Nye's absentees weren't reported by party.) That's only a few hundred votes, though, and clearly high turnout in Clark and a strong performance in Washoe is what will be critical for Democrats.

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The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.