Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Holmes]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Well most of those states have Republican voters than Democratic ones, so it stands to reason.

[ON Progressive]

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting early right now in Senate race states

However they also say that women voters have outpaced men voters in most states (tied in Arizona, behind in Nevada). Also suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in most states (more rural in Montana, urban in Arizona and Texas). Unfortunately no comparisons to past years.

This is based on inane Targetsmart's "modeled partisanship". Not worth much.

[bilaps]

Okaloosa county posted first early vote numbers, Republicans should be happy, it's 1344 to 292 margin for them vs Democrats and their percentage of total early vote in this county is now 74,2% which is up in comparison with percentage of total early vote from this county in 2014 by 3% and 2016 by 10%

[Beet]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

Please check your facts.  I don't know about all the states in your list, but Democrats definitely do NOT typically lead the Georgia early vote.  I'm pretty sure they don't in Florida, either.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Of course Beet would change the thread title for attention.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ok that article is clickbait as all hell seeing as it actually about mail in ballots which the GOP always does well in

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

Of your three examples:

1. Democrats are up in Iowa.
2. Democrats have cut the Republican lead on this day in 2014 in half.
3. Democrats are up in North Carolina.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I mean, isn't that expected in all of those states? If Dems are winning any of those states it's going to be due to good to amazing margins among independents.

Democrats typically have big leads in the early vote. In 2012, I remember they touted how Romney won the election day vote in Iowa. In 2016, they were excited over the early vote in Florida showing them winning. And for example in 2014:

http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/

That there are big Republican leads in the early vote suggests a #RedWave

Please check your facts.  I don't know about all the states in your list, but Democrats definitely do NOT typically lead the Georgia early vote.  I'm pretty sure they don't in Florida, either.

Republicans generally win VBM, with Democrats winning EV which just started today.

[KingSweden]

Saying “GOP ahead” doesn’t tell us much when looking at EV - one has to compare to previous years. Like FL, where they’re always ahead in mail ins. Question is, by what margin? And analyze from there.

[Brittain33]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I just posted that.

It’s not his fault. He started a thread for it and I merged it into the megathread where it belonged.

[Brittain33]

Of course Beet would change the thread title for attention.

When that happens, it’s usually because a mod has merged a freestanding thread into an existing thread (as in this case).

[Gass3268]

Saying “GOP ahead” doesn’t tell us much when looking at EV - one has to compare to previous years. Like FL, where they’re always ahead in mail ins. Question is, by what margin? And analyze from there.

Exactly, Democrats are currently ahead in Florida vs 2014, but behind compared to 2016. That's important information to know.

[Beet]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

As others have pointed out, these numbers are worthless unless you include how they compare to previous years.

[Xing]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

[henster]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

[Gass3268]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

How big of a lead did the Republicans have in the AZ-08 special before Lesko only ended up winning by 5%? I feel like it was like over 25%.

[Former Kentuckian]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

Haven't polls also shown some registered Republican support for Sinema?

[Gass3268]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054425836693143552

[IceSpear]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

What Beet isn't telling you is that the edge in terms of percentage was larger for the Republicans (it was about 14%) a few days ago, and now it's 12.3% (44.7-32.4). Republicans have a big registration advantage in Arizona, this is to be expected.

How big of a lead did the Republicans have in the AZ-08 special before Lesko only ended up winning by 5%? I feel like it was like over 25%.

Yeah, people tend to forget this. That's not to say that the same gap will be present all across the state (otherwise Sinema would be winning in a landslide), but it's definitely important to keep in mind.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1054462428078063619

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

TargetSmart is a Dem/Progressive voter file firm. They know what they are doing and are solid, and the partisanship is modeled partisanship. It should be a pretty reasonable (but no perfectly accurate, of course) measure of whether people generally think of themselves as Republicans or Democrats. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they are voting for any particular candidate, just that they are probably either generally R or D.

Absentee voting by mail started in TX well before today. I assume that 53-43 is that.

If Dems are only losing the absentee vote by mail (heavily seniors) by something in the general range of 53-43, that is really very good for Dems.

[Ebsy]

This article was ready made for idiots on twitter to share it as if it contains some insight.

TargetSmart are a bunch of idiots.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This article was ready made for idiots on twitter to share it as if it contains some insight.

TargetSmart are a bunch of idiots.

The reporters who wrote the article may well be a bunch of idiots, but TargetSmart is not a bunch of idiots.