Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We are all going to learn our lesson from 2016 and not overexaggerate the early vote numbers, right?

No.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1044424766889906176

let the hype begin!

Yeah, that does sound pretty high, particularly given that these are mail ballots and not in person early voting. Hot take ---> good news for Abrams.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1045140690928308225

What I would be especially interested in is what the equivalent #s were in 2008, when there was such huge early voting for Obama in GA by African Americans. How does that compare (obviously in a Presidential election) to what we see this year regarding GA early voting?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hopefully the early voting in person has a similar trend as the mail ballots - and there is similar excitement to 2008.

The kids in this are probably voting age now, so here's to hoping that they vote however they like!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxlwYP0HNdc

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That seems encouraging, considering this means Abrams strategy is working so far.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Absentee voting is going on right now in Texas. There doesn't seem to be any statistical information yet, but I got my ballot in any case:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is some more data (by county) from Georgia that I compiled for the 17k ballots received so far.

The 1st number is total absentee ballots requested, the 2nd is the number returned so far, the 3rd number is the percent of ballots that have been returned so far, and the 4th number is the county's Black population percentage.

It seems like the counties with the highest percentage of ballots returned so far are smaller rural counties. That seems not to have much of a relationship with the black population percentage in each county.

The statewide average return rate so far is 13.5%. All the major Atlanta-area counties are below that (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton). And yet, we know that the returns are disproportionately from African American voters, including quite a few that did not vote in 2014. There are also some rural/smaller counties that don't have many ballots returned yet, but on average rural areas seem to be returning ballots more quickly than the Atlanta area.

Maybe some of our resident Georgia experts can help interpret this, and explain why this is the case? Why are the return rates significantly lower in the Atlanta area so far? Just an idea, but maybe the Abrams campaign has been focusing on turnout especially in the Atlanta area, and got more people who would not normally use absentee ballots to get ballots there as compared to in rural ares?

This also should mean that if ballots in the Atlanta area do start getting returned at a higher rate and start to catch up, then it may get even BETTER for Abrams than it already looks now?

RANDOLPH     ---    273     ---    93     ---    34.1%     ---    60.7%     ---   
COOK     ---    183     ---    58     ---    31.7%     ---    27.7%     ---   
GORDON     ---    245     ---    77     ---    31.4%     ---    4.4%     ---   
BUTTS     ---    210     ---    64     ---    30.5%     ---    27.9%     ---   
EARLY     ---    228     ---    69     ---    30.3%     ---    49.5%     ---   
TOWNS     ---    105     ---    31     ---    29.5%     ---    1.1%     ---   
WILCOX     ---    119     ---    35     ---    29.4%     ---    35.7%     ---   
BLECKLEY     ---    161     ---    47     ---    29.2%     ---    26.8%     ---   
TATTNALL     ---    210     ---    60     ---    28.6%     ---    29.7%     ---   
UPSON     ---    343     ---    98     ---    28.6%     ---    27.8%     ---   
APPLING     ---    273     ---    74     ---    27.1%     ---    19.6%     ---   
DAWSON     ---    187     ---    50     ---    26.7%     ---    0.8%     ---   
GILMER     ---    274     ---    72     ---    26.3%     ---    0.9%     ---   
IRWIN     ---    73     ---    19     ---    26%     ---    27.1%     ---   
ELBERT     ---    338     ---    87     ---    25.7%     ---    29.7%     ---   
WALKER     ---    316     ---    81     ---    25.6%     ---    4.4%     ---   
JOHNSON     ---    133     ---    34     ---    25.6%     ---    34.6%     ---   
RABUN     ---    750     ---    189     ---    25.2%     ---    1.6%     ---   
WASHINGTON     ---    450     ---    113     ---    25.1%     ---    52.6%     ---   
GLASCOCK     ---    32     ---    8     ---    25%     ---    9.4%     ---   
PAULDING     ---    2040     ---    502     ---    24.6%     ---    17.8%     ---   
TOOMBS     ---    427     ---    105     ---    24.6%     ---    25.9%     ---   
DECATUR     ---    389     ---    94     ---    24.2%     ---    41.4%     ---   
WILKINSON     ---    170     ---    41     ---    24.1%     ---    38.1%     ---   
MACON     ---    220     ---    52     ---    23.6%     ---    59.9%     ---   
TERRELL     ---    288     ---    68     ---    23.6%     ---    60.2%     ---   
JACKSON     ---    462     ---    109     ---    23.6%     ---    7.1%     ---   
JONES     ---    625     ---    147     ---    23.5%     ---    24.6%     ---   
GREENE     ---    364     ---    85     ---    23.4%     ---    36.9%     ---   
CATOOSA     ---    198     ---    46     ---    23.2%     ---    2.6%     ---   
RICHMOND     ---    3482     ---    807     ---    23.2%     ---    55.2%     ---   
EFFINGHAM     ---    385     ---    89     ---    23.1%     ---    13.9%     ---   
TROUP     ---    860     ---    198     ---    23%     ---    34.9%     ---   
LAMAR     ---    239     ---    55     ---    23%     ---    31.2%     ---   
CALHOUN     ---    74     ---    17     ---    23%     ---    61.4%     ---   
FLOYD     ---    690     ---    157     ---    22.8%     ---    14.9%     ---   
HEARD     ---    221     ---    50     ---    22.6%     ---    10.6%     ---   
EMANUEL     ---    214     ---    48     ---    22.4%     ---    34.1%     ---   
FRANKLIN     ---    210     ---    47     ---    22.4%     ---    9.2%     ---   
QUITMAN     ---    36     ---    8     ---    22.2%     ---    47.4%     ---   
BARROW     ---    708     ---    157     ---    22.2%     ---    11.6%     ---   
COWETA     ---    1417     ---    308     ---    21.7%     ---    18%     ---   
CRAWFORD     ---    111     ---    24     ---    21.6%     ---    21.4%     ---   
LEE     ---    293     ---    63     ---    21.5%     ---    20.4%     ---   
BEN HILL     ---    256     ---    55     ---    21.5%     ---    35.1%     ---   
MCINTOSH     ---    233     ---    50     ---    21.5%     ---    34.9%     ---   
DADE     ---    56     ---    12     ---    21.4%     ---    1.4%     ---   
LONG     ---    76     ---    16     ---    21.1%     ---    26.1%     ---   
HOUSTON     ---    1870     ---    388     ---    20.7%     ---    29.9%     ---   
MERIWETHER     ---    270     ---    56     ---    20.7%     ---    39.1%     ---   
CHEROKEE     ---    2298     ---    473     ---    20.6%     ---    6.4%     ---   
FORSYTH     ---    2325     ---    473     ---    20.3%     ---    3.3%     ---   
BARTOW     ---    743     ---    151     ---    20.3%     ---    10.8%     ---   
MADISON     ---    266     ---    54     ---    20.3%     ---    9.1%     ---   
CARROLL     ---    854     ---    173     ---    20.3%     ---    18.7%     ---   
TWIGGS     ---    173     ---    35     ---    20.2%     ---    41.6%     ---   
LAURENS     ---    872     ---    176     ---    20.2%     ---    36.2%     ---   
BROOKS     ---    265     ---    53     ---    20%     ---    35%     ---   
OCONEE     ---    440     ---    88     ---    20%     ---    5.4%     ---   
POLK     ---    217     ---    43     ---    19.8%     ---    13%     ---   
JEFF DAVIS     ---    86     ---    17     ---    19.8%     ---    15.5%     ---   
UNION     ---    208     ---    41     ---    19.7%     ---    0.8%     ---   
BRYAN     ---    278     ---    54     ---    19.4%     ---    15.2%     ---   
SPALDING     ---    842     ---    163     ---    19.4%     ---    33.3%     ---   
TALIAFERRO     ---    146     ---    28     ---    19.2%     ---    58.6%     ---   
THOMAS     ---    652     ---    124     ---    19%     ---    36.9%     ---   
CHATTOOGA     ---    95     ---    18     ---    18.9%     ---    10.4%     ---   
WILKES     ---    176     ---    33     ---    18.8%     ---    42.6%     ---   
OGLETHORPE     ---    277     ---    50     ---    18.1%     ---    17.6%     ---   
LOWNDES     ---    1210     ---    216     ---    17.9%     ---    36.8%     ---   
COLUMBIA     ---    1640     ---    290     ---    17.7%     ---    16.5%     ---   
CHARLTON     ---    68     ---    12     ---    17.6%     ---    32.3%     ---   
TIFT     ---    335     ---    59     ---    17.6%     ---    30.4%     ---   
HART     ---    202     ---    35     ---    17.3%     ---    18.6%     ---   
PULASKI     ---    116     ---    20     ---    17.2%     ---    31.5%     ---   
EVANS     ---    122     ---    21     ---    17.2%     ---    30.9%     ---   
LANIER     ---    76     ---    13     ---    17.1%     ---    23%     ---   
BALDWIN     ---    646     ---    110     ---    17%     ---    41.7%     ---   
CRISP     ---    282     ---    48     ---    17%     ---    43.6%     ---   
WHITFIELD     ---    529     ---    90     ---    17%     ---    4.3%     ---   
FANNIN     ---    383     ---    64     ---    16.7%     ---    0.7%     ---   
MONROE     ---    380     ---    62     ---    16.3%     ---    23.1%     ---   
BACON     ---    92     ---    15     ---    16.3%     ---    16.3%     ---   
BULLOCH     ---    647     ---    105     ---    16.2%     ---    28.9%     ---   
WARREN     ---    111     ---    18     ---    16.2%     ---    60.3%     ---   
COLQUITT     ---    278     ---    45     ---    16.2%     ---    23.5%     ---   
MORGAN     ---    220     ---    35     ---    15.9%     ---    23.2%     ---   
WALTON     ---    867     ---    136     ---    15.7%     ---    16.6%     ---   
ROCKDALE     ---    1334     ---    206     ---    15.4%     ---    49.5%     ---   
LUMPKIN     ---    268     ---    41     ---    15.3%     ---    1.8%     ---   
JENKINS     ---    86     ---    13     ---    15.1%     ---    43.2%     ---   
GLYNN     ---    892     ---    134     ---    15%     ---    26.6%     ---   
NEWTON     ---    1778     ---    267     ---    15%     ---    42.5%     ---   
PIERCE     ---    123     ---    18     ---    14.6%     ---    9.3%     ---   
MARION     ---    105     ---    15     ---    14.3%     ---    32%     ---   
CHATHAM     ---    4177     ---    594     ---    14.2%     ---    40.2%     ---   
HENRY     ---    3421     ---    486     ---    14.2%     ---    39.6%     ---   
MCDUFFIE     ---    569     ---    79     ---    13.9%     ---    40.4%     ---   
PUTNAM     ---    329     ---    45     ---    13.7%     ---    27.2%     ---   
HANCOCK     ---    225     ---    29     ---    12.9%     ---    72.6%     ---   
FULTON     ---    8536     ---    1090     ---    12.8%     ---    44.4%     ---   
CLARKE     ---    1809     ---    223     ---    12.3%     ---    27.3%     ---   
DEKALB     ---    12691     ---    1550     ---    12.2%     ---    54.8%     ---   
LINCOLN     ---    172     ---    20     ---    11.6%     ---    31.5%     ---   
COBB     ---    14279     ---    1546     ---    10.8%     ---    26.7%     ---   
BAKER     ---    57     ---    6     ---    10.5%     ---    45.6%     ---   
WORTH     ---    118     ---    12     ---    10.2%     ---    29.1%     ---   
JEFFERSON     ---    414     ---    42     ---    10.1%     ---    54.1%     ---   
ECHOLS     ---    21     ---    2     ---    9.5%     ---    5.3%     ---   
BERRIEN     ---    233     ---    22     ---    9.4%     ---    11.1%     ---   
PIKE     ---    215     ---    20     ---    9.3%     ---    10.7%     ---   
DOUGLAS     ---    2047     ---    189     ---    9.2%     ---    42.5%     ---   
CLAYTON     ---    4881     ---    446     ---    9.1%     ---    67.8%     ---   
BRANTLEY     ---    66     ---    6     ---    9.1%     ---    3.3%     ---   
STEPHENS     ---    334     ---    27     ---    8.1%     ---    11.2%     ---   
GWINNETT     ---    13071     ---    1041     ---    8%     ---    26.3%     ---   
CAMDEN     ---    832     ---    66     ---    7.9%     ---    19.4%     ---   
HARRIS     ---    395     ---    31     ---    7.8%     ---    17%     ---   
MONTGOMERY     ---    116     ---    9     ---    7.8%     ---    26.4%     ---   
HARALSON     ---    129     ---    9     ---    7%     ---    4.8%     ---   
BIBB     ---    2047     ---    141     ---    6.9%     ---    53.4%     ---   
SCHLEY     ---    44     ---    3     ---    6.8%     ---    21.9%     ---   
JASPER     ---    213     ---    13     ---    6.1%     ---    22.1%     ---   
CLAY     ---    84     ---    5     ---    6%     ---    59.5%     ---   
GRADY     ---    306     ---    18     ---    5.9%     ---    28.9%     ---   
WHITE     ---    326     ---    19     ---    5.8%     ---    2.3%     ---   
DODGE     ---    219     ---    11     ---    5%     ---    29.9%     ---   
MITCHELL     ---    357     ---    13     ---    3.6%     ---    47.9%     ---   
WHEELER     ---    31     ---    1     ---    3.2%     ---    38.3%     ---   
TAYLOR     ---    35     ---    1     ---    2.9%     ---    38.2%     ---   
BANKS     ---    110     ---    3     ---    2.7%     ---    2.8%     ---   
TELFAIR     ---    174     ---    4     ---    2.3%     ---    36.2%     ---   
SCREVEN     ---    141     ---    3     ---    2.1%     ---    42.2%     ---   
WEBSTER     ---    47     ---    1     ---    2.1%     ---    41.9%     ---   
FAYETTE     ---    1314     ---    26     ---    2%     ---    21.4%     ---   
HALL     ---    1426     ---    23     ---    1.6%     ---    8.1%     ---   
SUMTER     ---    646     ---    10     ---    1.5%     ---    52.5%     ---   
STEWART     ---    65     ---    1     ---    1.5%     ---    50.8%     ---   
MURRAY     ---    96     ---    1     ---    1%     ---    1.3%     ---   
TALBOT     ---    132     ---    1     ---    0.8%     ---    57.3%     ---   
ATKINSON     ---    6     ---         ---    0%     ---    17.9%     ---   
BURKE     ---    322     ---         ---    0%     ---    48.5%     ---   
CHATTAHOOCHEE     ---    8     ---         ---    0%     ---    18.5%     ---   
CLINCH     ---    86     ---    0     ---    0%     ---    27.7%     ---   
COFFEE     ---    217     ---         ---    0%     ---    28%     ---   
DOOLY     ---    45     ---         ---    0%     ---    49.9%     ---   
DOUGHERTY     ---    606     ---         ---    0%     ---    68%     ---   
HABERSHAM     ---    513     ---         ---    0%     ---    4%     ---   
LIBERTY     ---    704     ---         ---    0%     ---    40.9%     ---   
MILLER     ---    38     ---         ---    0%     ---    27.6%     ---   
MUSCOGEE     ---    3265     ---    0     ---    0%     ---    46%     ---   
PEACH     ---    136     ---         ---    0%     ---    45%     ---   
PICKENS     ---    28     ---         ---    0%     ---    1.4%     ---   
SEMINOLE     ---    119     ---         ---    0%     ---    33.3%     ---   
TREUTLEN     ---    39     ---         ---    0%     ---    32.7%     ---   
TURNER     ---    4     ---         ---    0%     ---    39.7%     ---   
WARE     ---    296     ---         ---    0%     ---    29.5%     ---   
WAYNE     ---    126     ---         ---    0%     ---    20.5%     ---   

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Do we know anything about "Other Race"? That increase is pretty remarkable by %.

Primarily Asian, I expect.

You have to fill out what your race is to register to vote in Georgia, and "Other" is specifically an option. Asian/Pacific Islander is another option. You can see the form here:

http://sos.ga.gov/admin/files/GA_VR_APP_2018.pdf

"Other" has increased in frequency as an option that people check when registering to vote in Georgia. In part this can include things like people who are multi-racial, but it also partly reflects people not wanting to list their race, or thinking that the form shouldn't be asking for their race, or thinking that they are "post-racial" or that race doesn't apply to them, etc. So actually this does include a decent # of people who are actually white, as well as various other things. But regardless, "Other" probably does skew dem simply because it skews towards more recent registrants, and hence younger people and people who have moved more recently.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is a nice site for tracking California early vote, which has maps showing where the ballot requests/returns are coming from by party down to the precinct level.

https://www.politicaldata.com/statewide-early-vote-tracker/

So for, although women have requested 50% of the ballots and men only 43%, men have returned 50% and women have only returned 46%. So at least in California so far, I guess it is the #YearOfTheMan.

Surprising, but I would expect that to change eventually.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

34/195 ballots returned in Petroleum County, MT, but 0/315 in Garfield County, MT.

Bad news for Tester. Rosendale is sure to carry Petroleum Co, but I have Garfield penciled in as solid Tester. Garfield is a pro-incumbent county, whereas Petroleum tends to favor challengers. If there is low turnout in Garfield, Tester could actually be vulnerable. But maybe they just haven't reported the results yet. I don't think they have a full time County elections administrator.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is the first day of early voting in TX and there are reportedly long lines in Houston. This has video, looks like a pretty good # of non-white people:

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054355561838456832

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, people literally camped out overnight to vote.

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054345116087918592

Shocking turnout for first day of early voting in Houston

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Beto inside a voting camper tent:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

More from TX (also Houston area, in a Hispanic neighborhood):

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1054400878373990401

It is hard to tell from that video how many of the voters are Hispanic, though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/EdEspinoza/status/1054401592940810240

Very encouraging.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's a big crowd of mostly white people listening to Beto at an early vote location on Montgomery County (Northern Houston area, normally a very very Republican area).

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1054383660294647811

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I found some more twitter reports of high turnout in other parts of TX besides just Houston/Austin. This is, in general, good news for Beto, because he needs a drastically different and bigger electorate to show up than in a normal midterm:

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1054389393455284224



Lines in El Paso:

https://twitter.com/efrivera1966/status/1054416328440729605

Lines of college students at UT San Antonio - this one seems particularly good for Beto, having college students actually voting:

https://twitter.com/rks127th/status/1054421088099356672

Lubbock:

https://twitter.com/CaprockDemocrat/status/1054419951140945920

Lines in Round Rock (TX-31):

https://twitter.com/Astros290/status/1054424093532082176

Lines in San Marcos:

https://twitter.com/masg66/status/1054402237143937024

Lines in San Angelo:

https://twitter.com/SanAngeloLIVE/status/1054415590172057600

Lines in Witchita Falls:

https://twitter.com/DanielleKAUZ/status/1054420665514770432

Lines in Fort Worth:

https://twitter.com/Kauz_Girl/status/1054409371906662402

More lines in Fort Worth:

https://twitter.com/BrittanyYowell/status/1054417296935018496

Early voting lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/KenKalthoffNBC5/status/1054415191096676358

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/lwgowin/status/1054365101590044672

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1054403256158511105

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/maaronjo/status/1054409602366881792

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/CPerk999/status/1054406577338355712

More lines in Dallas:

https://twitter.com/itsjveliz/status/1054381742797320192

Early voting lines in Austin:

https://twitter.com/EricaGrieder/status/1054417832975441921

More lines in Austin (University of Texas):

https://twitter.com/RoannaFlowers/status/1054419154953031680

More lines in Austin:

https://twitter.com/SuzanneMOMalley/status/1054401844640919552

More lines in Houston:

https://twitter.com/absolutspacegrl/status/1054357967850651649


That is probably enough...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Turnout in San Antonio TX (Bexar County) almost was already past 2014 levels by noon.

https://twitter.com/EricaGrieder/status/1054434362287181824

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Turnout in Travis County (Austin) so far as compared to 2014 and 2016:

https://twitter.com/EvaRuth/status/1054439644786503680

So already more than 50% higher than 2014 by 1 PM, and already half of 2016 levels by then, with many more hours of voting to go.

Similar story in Harris County (Houston):

https://twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1054437569746952192

For comparison, 67,471 people voted on the 1st day of 2016 early voting in Harris County.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Please don't dump dozen(s) of tweets at a time.

If you're going to use more than 4 or so in a message, just quote the text and use a tweet link.

OK, sorry.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, I wouldn't post another tweet about a line in TX, but I just have to link to this one because it is so insane.

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1054454561342193665

Watch the video here... The video walks down the entire length of the line, and it is just unbelievably long. WOW. It is really worth watching, you won't believe it unless you see it.

This is in Houston.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

TargetSmart is a Dem/Progressive voter file firm. They know what they are doing and are solid, and the partisanship is modeled partisanship. It should be a pretty reasonable (but no perfectly accurate, of course) measure of whether people generally think of themselves as Republicans or Democrats. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they are voting for any particular candidate, just that they are probably either generally R or D.

Absentee voting by mail started in TX well before today. I assume that 53-43 is that.

If Dems are only losing the absentee vote by mail (heavily seniors) by something in the general range of 53-43, that is really very good for Dems.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This article was ready made for idiots on twitter to share it as if it contains some insight.

TargetSmart are a bunch of idiots.

The reporters who wrote the article may well be a bunch of idiots, but TargetSmart is not a bunch of idiots.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054425836693143552

Thanks, that tweet puts some really good context on the TX numbers.

So this is 100k votes by mail cast in TX so far.

97.48% of those votes are from people age 65+...

And Republicans are only up (insofar as generic partisanship is an indicator) by about 10 points with that group consisting almost entirely of Seniors.

Those are ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC numbers for Dems. If they can do anything like keep it within 10 among Seniors, then Beto could actually win.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How accurate has TargetSmart been in the past? I've never watched their numbers until this year.

It is a solid and well established voter data company used by Dem/Progressive groups. The modeling is definitely going to be as solid as anything you can get as an indicator of generic partisanship. Of course, it does not necessarily indicate candidate support in particular races, which will differ somewhat from generic partisanship.

Of course, reporters analysis of this data is likely to be misleading, but that does not mean you should dismiss the data, which I would be 100% confident is solid.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Their modelling is far from solid lol.

It is about as accurate as modeling of partisanship can be in states that don't have voter registration. If you want to criticize it, name some other modeling that is substantially better.

If you are expecting perfect accuracy or near perfect accuracy for every individual voter, of course it is not that, but there is no such modeling available from anyone.