Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[libertpaulian]

Latest Fl update have Republicans at 406,118, Democrats at 354,056

With others and NPA it's 923,652 people that already voted by mail.

So, so far it's 52k advantage republicans. At the end of 2014 process margin was 118k and in 2016 it was 59k.

NPA is going to be what brings the race home for Nelson and Gillum.  Indys are crazy Dem this year.

[libertpaulian]

This is a pretty interesting bit from Ralston's early vote in Nevada blog:

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If an uninspiring candidate like Rosen can pull this off with new voters and "missing" voters, just imagine what dynamic candidates like Abrams and Gillum can do.

[libertpaulian]

Another big day in Clark https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054508750390743040

Dang.

[libertpaulian]

African American voters are 13.3% of active voters in Florida but are 15.5% if the in-person early voting so far. Good news for Gillum.

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

African-Americans are going to be energized in the general election with a young African-American on the top of the ticket than they are some old, washed-up, white Boomer.

[libertpaulian]

Why are we comparing EV numbers to 2014 rather than 2006 or 2002? Is it just a question of available data?

I've seen this multiple times now. No one is actually expecting Republicans to get close to 2014 numbers. Seems like a lot of lowering of expectations going on in the Democratic cheer squad.

I think it's to compare how Democrats are doing this year compared to years which were Republican waves and turnout was significantly lower.

[libertpaulian]

Dems should aim for what...30-40K in Clark today?

[libertpaulian]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

[libertpaulian]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

Eh, it depends.  Remember, in Indiana, partisan registration doesn't exist.  Every registered voter is non-affiliated, no matter how they may personally identify.

[libertpaulian]

Eh, those AZ numbers still suck.  Wasn't the GOP lead in EV in the low-single digits before Election Day (where Trump still eked out a 4% victory)?!

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1057605437959344128

Wow.  The margin between the GOP EV advantage in 2014 compared to their advantage right now is more than Rick Scott's victory over Charlie Crist that year.  That's a YUGE advantage for the GOP that's been erased.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

[libertpaulian]

Early voted today.  I live in Lake County, Indiana, in a town that's considered a bedroom community outside Chicago.  I waited 1 hour and 40 minutes to vote, and then an extra 10 minutes to vote (including showing my ID and sitting in a chair to wait for a booth to open up).  Although the crowd was largely white, there were also a decent number of non-whites, as well as a couple young people who were voting for the first time.

[libertpaulian]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

Gadsden is heavily AA, which is good for Gillum.

[libertpaulian]

It's only one county in Indiana, but it's the most populated one.  Here are the numbers for Marion County (Indianapolis):

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/record-numbers-in-early-voting-in-marion-county

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[libertpaulian]

TargetSmart EAV swing, day before 2014 to today:

How are they able to determine Indiana's swing when we have nonpartisan registration?

[libertpaulian]

Some news from my county!  Looks like early voting was insane this year.  It feels awesome to be among the 38,583!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/early-voters-shatter-the-old-mark-for-midterm-elections-across/article_8bad2801-1bcf-5446-a4b8-c80a35fec014.html

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Does anyone besides me think this bodes well for Joe Donnelly, assuming turnout in these areas is high tomorrow as well?

[libertpaulian]

Some news from my county!  Looks like early voting was insane this year.  It feels awesome to be among the 38,583!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/early-voters-shatter-the-old-mark-for-midterm-elections-across/article_8bad2801-1bcf-5446-a4b8-c80a35fec014.html

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Does anyone besides me think this bodes well for Joe Donnelly, assuming turnout in these areas is high tomorrow as well?

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Sounds promising, but do you have any idea how it compares to the rest of the state and to 2016? It is obviously more of a big deal if the increase is greater than elsewhere.

I'm unable to access statewide figures as of now, but here are statistics from Marion County, home to Indianapolis.  This is a county where Joe absolutely must run up the score in order to stay in the game:

https://www.wishtv.com/news/local-news/early-voting-numbers-more-than-2016-presidential-election/1573625396

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In St. Joseph County, Indiana, which is home to South Bend and is the flagship county of Donnelly's former congressional district:

https://www.abc57.com/news/theres-still-time-to-absentee-vote-in-person-in-indiana

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[libertpaulian]

I also think 2014 is a very bad year to compare to, given we didn't have any significantly contested races statewide.  All the congressional races were uncontested.

[libertpaulian]

Are the NH towns voting at midnight again this year?

No, that's only a presidential ritual.