Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 915248 times)
Storr
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« Reply #15600 on: October 03, 2022, 12:32:14 PM »
No AFU soldiers in the photo, but it means at least the Russians have left:
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Storr
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« Reply #15601 on: October 03, 2022, 12:59:28 PM »
Quote from: Storr on October 03, 2022, 12:12:52 PM
Elon Musk proposes, edited with the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany's response (which is probably what your average Ukrainian would say to this proposal):



[tweet snip]
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #15602 on: October 03, 2022, 01:04:20 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 03, 2022, 12:20:16 PM
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 03, 2022, 10:48:40 AM
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057

One would presume that the Russians moved south of the bridge before blowing it, but one never knows.

Dudchany does bring a whole new strategic area in range of Himars once fully established.

More of an annoyance than anything else. The AFU can easily bypass than a few miles to the north.

Seems they are desperate to buy themselves any time.  There was one Russian telegram post that said the General stopped the retreat by shooting under the wheels.

 
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #15603 on: October 03, 2022, 01:05:40 PM »


What are Rashists front lines doing?
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jaichind
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« Reply #15604 on: October 03, 2022, 01:10:53 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 03, 2022, 12:07:30 PM
Everyone, please check your images before or at least after you post to make sure they don't stretch the page out. I've had to manually reduce embedded images twice in the past few days. It just takes a few seconds to verify what you are posting won't mess things up. Preview the post, or view it after posting and edit if necessary.

My fault.  Thanks for fixing it for me.
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Logical
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« Reply #15605 on: October 03, 2022, 01:15:47 PM »
Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......
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Storr
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« Reply #15606 on: October 03, 2022, 01:22:04 PM »
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 03, 2022, 01:05:40 PM


What are Rashists front lines doing?

Why they're evacuating Svatove (Girkin said they're evacuating civilians, but that's not a great sign for your side when you're forced to do that):
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #15607 on: October 03, 2022, 01:36:54 PM »
Regarding Svatove, it's already been Himared pretty good




A very thorough thread with satellite evidence.
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« Reply #15608 on: October 03, 2022, 02:22:58 PM »
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Storr
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« Reply #15609 on: October 03, 2022, 02:25:46 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 02:29:05 PM by Storr »
Elon continues to make idiotic statements (The map is from the 1991 Ukrainian Independence Referendum):
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Storr
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« Reply #15610 on: October 03, 2022, 02:49:58 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 03:02:20 PM by Storr »
Take with a huge grain of salt. This is definitely possible, but there's been no evidence to back it up (yet?):

Full google translation of the telegram post:

"03.10.2022
Dudchany, Barislavsky district, Kherson region, Ukraine.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied the settlement."



Edit: added another TG post from a different pro-Russian channel:

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Omega21
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« Reply #15611 on: October 03, 2022, 03:01:52 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 03:05:33 PM by Omega21 »
Quote from: Storr on October 03, 2022, 02:25:46 PM
Elon continues to make idiotic statements (The map is from the 1991 Ukrainian Independence Referendum):



Kinda confirms my opinion on the whole situation tbh.

Crimea would likely now be 60% + for Russia (the '91 one vote did not assume that UA would be perceived as RU hostile). It is majority ethnic Russian, after all.

Same could be true for pre-Feb occupied Donbas, but certainly not as likely as Crimea.

As for the rest, only way they would want to be annexed is with some not so friendly "gun to the head" motivation.

Tbh I don't see a single reason Putin didn't just go into the occupied Donbas, annex it, call it a day and get his little "win".

Lose 0 troops, gain territory, UA unable to join Nato(they would never give up both Crimea and DNR/LNR), less sanctions...

Truly mind-boggling decision making. Good for UA though.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #15612 on: October 03, 2022, 03:08:24 PM »
Yeah, the fact is that the territories in question have already voted on this and it wasn't remotely close everywhere outside Crimea. Even the Crimean districts  voted for independence by a 12 and 18% margin, so it's not like the result was razor thin.

Furthermore, there was no politically relevant internal movement for independence.  Unlike, say, Northern Ireland, the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine were fully committed to participation in Ukraine's electoral system, and not as a vehicle for independence.
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Storr
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« Reply #15613 on: October 03, 2022, 03:20:54 PM »
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Storr
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« Reply #15614 on: October 03, 2022, 03:35:02 PM »
Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) conscripts conveniently remembering how to speak Ukrainian after being (as they claim) abandoned by the Russians and captured by Ukrainian forces.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #15615 on: October 03, 2022, 03:50:33 PM »
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 03, 2022, 01:05:40 PM
What are Rashists front lines doing?

this lol



(won't post the video because it's a bit much for this forum)
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Storr
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« Reply #15616 on: October 03, 2022, 03:51:13 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 03, 2022, 12:20:16 PM
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 03, 2022, 10:48:40 AM
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057

One would presume that the Russians moved south of the bridge before blowing it, but one never knows.

Dudchany does bring a whole new strategic area in range of Himars once fully established.

More of an annoyance than anything else. The AFU can easily bypass it a few miles to the north.
Wagner agrees with you:

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Logical
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« Reply #15617 on: October 03, 2022, 03:56:22 PM »
Quote from: Omega21 on October 03, 2022, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: Storr on October 03, 2022, 02:25:46 PM
Elon continues to make idiotic statements (The map is from the 1991 Ukrainian Independence Referendum):



Kinda confirms my opinion on the whole situation tbh.

Crimea would likely now be 60% + for Russia (the '91 one vote did not assume that UA would be perceived as RU hostile). It is majority ethnic Russian, after all.

Same could be true for pre-Feb occupied Donbas, but certainly not as likely as Crimea.

As for the rest, only way they would want to be annexed is with some not so friendly "gun to the head" motivation.

Tbh I don't see a single reason Putin didn't just go into the occupied Donbas, annex it, call it a day and get his little "win".

Lose 0 troops, gain territory, UA unable to join Nato(they would never give up both Crimea and DNR/LNR), less sanctions...

Truly mind-boggling decision making. Good for UA though.

Crimea would have voted narrowly to join Russia in a free and fair referendum in 2014. Parts of Donbass are secessionist as well but they were never a majority (see poll below from April 2014). Truth is that the world was fine with the  2015-2021 status quo until Putin decided to break it. For that Russia must be punished and return all their illegal conquests.


Even more mind boggling is how Russia and Ukraine would have remained on friendly terms if Ukraine was never invaded in the first place.


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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15618 on: October 03, 2022, 04:36:22 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 04:40:51 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Quote from: Omega21 on October 03, 2022, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: Storr on October 03, 2022, 02:25:46 PM
Elon continues to make idiotic statements (The map is from the 1991 Ukrainian Independence Referendum):



Kinda confirms my opinion on the whole situation tbh.

Crimea would likely now be 60% + for Russia (the '91 one vote did not assume that UA would be perceived as RU hostile). It is majority ethnic Russian, after all.

Same could be true for pre-Feb occupied Donbas, but certainly not as likely as Crimea.

As for the rest, only way they would want to be annexed is with some not so friendly "gun to the head" motivation.

Tbh I don't see a single reason Putin didn't just go into the occupied Donbas, annex it, call it a day and get his little "win".

Lose 0 troops, gain territory, UA unable to join Nato(they would never give up both Crimea and DNR/LNR), less sanctions...

Truly mind-boggling decision making. Good for UA though.

Because annexation was not the primary goal. Russia sought regime change in Kyiv and its off-ramp is a salami slice today (of undetermined size because they’re making this up as they go along) with hope for more in 5-10 years’ time.
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #15619 on: October 03, 2022, 04:52:11 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 05:02:08 PM by 👁️👁️ »
Quote from: Post-Soviet-Posting on October 03, 2022, 12:22:20 PM
Quote from: Torie on October 02, 2022, 10:30:43 AM
...some territorial accommodation via say real referenda in exchange for Russia accepting that Ukraine become a NATO member might have some merit.

I don't say this to disagree with your proposal. The opposite in many ways. But: this kind of thinking demonstrates the absurdity of the Kremlin's apparent play here. The secessionist status of Donetsk and Luhansk was a viable way to prevent Ukraine's accession to Western supra-national institutions only if it remained not-entirely-successful, or somehow forced a deal on Kiev. It was already extremely risky, in that the Crimean, LNR, and DNR secessions already removed voters living there from any political input in Kiev, and meanwhile the ongoing situation contributed to a substantial surge in Ukrainian popular support for NATO accession.

It would be nice if it were the case that all that Putin really ever wanted was for Ukraine to not join NATO. If so, there would have been a fairly simple solution - Ukraine not joining NATO, with peace otherwise prevailing.

However, this is really more wishcasting as to what would be nice if it were the case, as opposed to being actually the true. Rather, Putin's ambitions seem to have been pretty clearly quite a lot larger. If you (and anyone else reading this) has not done so, I would recommend reading Putin's pre-war essay, which should make that clearer (especially if you also watch/re-watch his speeches late February from the beginning of the invasion).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians

There is really no indication that Putin ever had any interest in some sort of deal where Ukraine would stay out of NATO in exchange for territory, because that was never his real goal. His goal was rather to either annex Ukraine outright, or to annex significant parts of it while de facto annexing the rest as a puppet state similar to Belarus but with more direct control over than Belarus. And then likely moving on to consolidate control over other areas (such as Belarus, since I already mentioned it) as well.

The only reason that didn't happen is that Putin greatly overestimated the capability and competence of the Russian military (as did many others), while underestimating the Ukrainians.
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Storr
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« Reply #15620 on: October 03, 2022, 04:59:49 PM »
Mykolaiv Oblast will be next. The Russians only hold Snihurivka and environs to its south.
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« Reply #15621 on: October 03, 2022, 05:00:51 PM »
Quote from: Omega21 on October 03, 2022, 03:01:52 PM
Kinda confirms my opinion on the whole situation tbh.

Crimea would likely now be 60% + for Russia (the '91 one vote did not assume that UA would be perceived as RU hostile). It is majority ethnic Russian, after all.

Same could be true for pre-Feb occupied Donbas, but certainly not as likely as Crimea.

Many pro-Ukrainian people who lived in Crimea were forced to flee, and Russia moved in lots of Russians (from Russia), providing incentives for people to move there, after it was taken over. So it is certainly quite plausible (I would definitely say more likely than not, speculatively) that a majority of the people in Crimea now do support being in Russia as opposed to Ukraine.

However, there is a word for that process of kicking out pro-Ukrainian populations and replacing them with Russians - ethnic cleansing.

So you can't approve of that unless you want to legitimize doing that as a way to justify other countries ethnically cleansing and annexing other territories in the future.
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« Reply #15622 on: October 03, 2022, 05:07:20 PM »
Quote from: Storr on October 03, 2022, 03:35:02 PM
Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) conscripts conveniently remembering how to speak Ukrainian after being (as they claim) abandoned by the Russians and captured by Ukrainian forces.




Okay, to be fair, isn't it possible a lot of these young men really were forcibly conscripted at the end of a gun by the Russian forces? I mean, even more so than Russian conscripts... It seemed like RU for all their rhetoric about invading to 'protect the Donbas' wasn't too concerned about also raping it dry of resources and young people.
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« Reply #15623 on: October 03, 2022, 05:09:42 PM »
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #15624 on: October 03, 2022, 05:12:22 PM »
And y’all still think I am wrong for thinking Elon Musk has been a net negative on humanity and deserves to be in prison?
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