Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Vladimir Putin wants foreign fighter volunteers to come to the front and fight for Russia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-11/putin-holds-meeting-with-russian-security-council-west-ukraine/100904764

Must be running out of troops for certain jobs.

A paratrooper unit from the Central African Republic, where Wagner was previously deployed, has announced its willingness to fight in the video below. It’s unclear to me whether that’s just a PR stunt or whether Russia intends to deploy CAR forces in due course:

https://www.twitter.com/war_noir/status/1502071098468442115
Russia has released another video featuring Syrian volunteers. They appear to be ~50 lightly armed and I’m not sure whether they are unfortunate paramilitaries or part of the Syrian Arab Army proper:

https://www.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502232208781762560
I don’t think either of these deployments would help much, even if Russia managed to rustle up the 16,000 Syrians it claims to be amassing.

[rc18]

They're gonna love the weather...

[jaichind]

Putin notes "positive movement” in talks with Ukraine.  Markets rally.   

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

[Torie]

Not sure if this is something new and disturbing that we did not know or just noise:

On Tuesday, a new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia will pursue its interests in “competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine and other countries in its ‘near-abroad.’ ” In testimony on the Hill, William Burns, the C.I.A. director and a former Ambassador to Russia, was pressed about Vladimir Putin’s intent. “He’s not going to stop at Ukraine, correct?” asked Representative Jackie Speier, of California. Burns replied, “That’s what makes it more important than ever to demonstrate that he’s not going to succeed in Ukraine.” The stakes, Burns acknowledged, are bigger. “This is one of those pivotal points where we and all of our allies and partners need to act.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-growing-fear-of-a-wider-war-between-russia-and-the-west

And one more which is no surprise to me as collateral damage:

Sometimes sanctions can also have the counterintuitive effect of consolidating the power of an authoritarian government, according to Dursun Peksen, a political scientist at the University of Memphis. When a nation becomes isolated, he found, access to state resources becomes even more important, and elites unite behind the leader and quell opposition. Sanctions are often detrimental for human rights, democracy, gender equality, press freedom and public health in affected nations such as Iran and Cuba, Mr. Peksen’s research showed.
“Russia will become a lot more authoritarian, more isolated, and it's the average Russian citizen that will incur the most cost,” he said. Ultimately, he added, when imposing sanctions “we have to strike a balance between political gain and civilian pain.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/world/economic-sanctions-history.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

It would probably radicalise some racist Ukrainians and boost Azov recruitment, which could then be used to justify the invasion that had already happened.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Madison Cawthorn calls Ukraine government 'evil,' Zelensky 'a thug'
 "Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug," Cawthorn said in a video obtained by WRAL. "Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies."

The “GOP’s AOC” has a less than nuanced take on this situation. Truly the Party of Lincoln Putin.

"Woke ideologies" like...[checks notes] mass mobilization driven by intense civic nationalism with a vague residual blood and soil component? lol okay. He's probably just mad it's only vague and residual.

Putin: Ukrainian government are Nazis.

Cawthorn: Ukrainian government is pushing woke ideologies.


Racism = Woke.

National socialism = Socialism.

War = Peace.

Freedom = Slavery.

Ignorance = Strength.


Cawthorn is really getting better at his Newspeak vocabulary.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

It would probably radicalise some racist Ukrainians and boost Azov recruitment, which could then be used to justify the invasion that had already happened.

And this is almost certainly why they’re recruiting and sending in Africans as opposed to say, Serbs, Armenians, or Central Asians.

That being said I’m not sure how practical getting them to Ukraine is at this point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

It would probably radicalise some racist Ukrainians and boost Azov recruitment, which could then be used to justify the invasion that had already happened.

And this is almost certainly why they’re recruiting and sending in Africans as opposed to say, Serbs, Armenians, or Central Asians.

That being said I’m not sure how practical getting them to Ukraine is at this point.

I disagree on that. It might be a benefit, but the main reasons are:

- Life is considered cheaper, and soldiers often more readily available, in poorer countries that were recently warzones
- Russia, through its military or PMCs, has been recently and directly involved in the Syrian/CAR conflicts in a way it has not been in Serbia, Armenia* or most of Central Asia. This gives it a lot of leverage.

I have seen multiple unconfirmed reports that among the Syrians coming to Ukraine are the Tiger Forces. I’m only bothering to mention this because they include photographs - if true, this is quite surprising as they are Assad’s best troops by a very long way. They might actually be useful in Ukraine.

*They are involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but primarily as peacekeepers.

[ugabug]

Here's a interview with the retired former general of the 7th army that's well worth a watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

He talk's about the entire kerfuffle around the Polish jets to why he thinks Ukraine will win in the end and why he thinks a possible attack on Odessa would be a mistake.

tl;dr thumbnail version, especially re: the Polish jets, for those of us too busy/lazy/attention span deprived to take 40 minutes to review?

He talks about the planes from around the 2 minute mark to about 6:30 mark of the video so not particularly long and at the beginning but I'll try laying out a tldr.

tldr for the planes is essentially miscommunication led to a lot of confusion in both countries and that transferring aircraft between can be especially complicated when it's between three nations and one of which is currently in a air war. Also sending the equipment from the Ramstein air base could be consider an escalation from Russia and would need to be consider carefully from the Biden administration before doing it.

He thinks Russia will lose is because he thinks Russia is losing on DIME (diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economy). They've invested too much of their military into Ukraine while still not having enough to win, their economy is crashing, Ukraine is winning the information war and the world opinion especially the western world is turning sharply against Russia and relatedly Russia is becoming more isolated diplomatically.

And as for Odessa he thinks the Russians have over extended there selves in the south and a naval attack on Odessa would only make the logistical situation worse even if they are able to take the city.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502269426606952452


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502264801430581257

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

[sguberman]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

apparently Belarus has one of the worst militaries in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

[John Dule]

Is anyone else worried that by pulling Twitter, McDonald's, Facebook, and Pornhub out of Russia, we're actually improving their quality of life?

[Storr]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502299402479751170?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

[ugabug]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

apparently Belarus has one of the worst militaries in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656

Wonder if Ukraine was one of the other two that was also rated extremely poor.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502269426606952452


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502264801430581257

First time I'm thinking maybe Russia is onto something...

[ugabug]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

Isn't that the third general they've lost now?

[Illiniwek]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

Isn't that the third general they've lost now?

Call me naïve, but I find it hard to believe that its very common for generals in major armed forces to die in combat post WWII....

[Storr]

Rasputitsa is undefeated

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502248956587397129?s=20&t=Ntbe_hLl5...

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

In their position, I'd be very careful with any cup of tea.

[Storr]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

apparently Belarus has one of the worst militaries in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1502272391669501954?s=20&t=qEQUeGb...

[Badger]

The Russian economy has gotten so bad that you have to wait in line 6 or 7 hours just to withdraw the equivalent of $13.70 in cash.  One man named Yury was waiting for 3 hours in line to withdraw cash and it only moved a little bit.  He was getting more and more fed up as he stood there shivering in Novopushkinsky Square.  So he looked at his friend Boris and said, "I've had enough of this, I'm going to go kill president Putin."  And with that he sprinted off towards the Kremlin.  45 minutes later he came sulking back.  The line still hadn't moved at all.  "Did you kill Putin?" asked Boris.  "No", said Yury, "the line for that was even longer than this one."

 Old Soviet era joke, But appropriate None the less.