Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 928757 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6750 on: March 10, 2022, 05:55:33 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 10, 2022, 05:49:15 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on March 10, 2022, 05:44:16 PM
U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

 Good. Now send the f****** jets, Joe!

I should point out that “looking into” is not the same thing as any sort of deal. This may go the way of the jets; the “airspace escalation” fear isn’t there but working out what replaces these SAMs could be complicated and expensive. Hopefully, the EU joint fund/purchase system can cover some of it.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6751 on: March 10, 2022, 05:59:21 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 05:48:36 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 05:12:21 PM
Thank you Wikipedia editors:



He doesn't need to pay taxes on it either.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-tax-office-captured-russian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3

But... but ... what is stop Igor from continuing his tax dodging scheme, by recruiting a couple buddies or even a stray Russian deserter or two and "finding" more such tax free "Russian Gifts" and next thing you know becoming worth hundreds of millions of dollars in assets?

Surely the Ukrainian Government would go bankrupt under the reign of a whole new breed of "Tractor Oligarchs"!
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Storr
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« Reply #6752 on: March 10, 2022, 06:14:26 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2022, 06:28:18 PM by Storr »
Bunching up your tanks closely together along the obvious route to Kyiv, what could go wrong? (Brovary, Kyiv Oblast)
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Person Man
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« Reply #6753 on: March 10, 2022, 06:25:16 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 06:14:26 PM
Bunching up your tanks closely together along the obvious route to Kyiv, what could go wrong?



Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6754 on: March 10, 2022, 06:31:06 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 06:14:26 PM
Bunching up your tanks closely together along the obvious route to Kyiv, what could go wrong?



Surprised we haven't seen more discussion of this on the thread, aside from another poster who put a different Twitter link to the same ambush earlier today.

Reportedly a Russian Colonel may have been KIA in the clash (Although it was the Azov Battalion who claimed that).  Sad

I'm also curious how many Russian tanks were taken out, since I don't believe Oryx has updated yet?

Still, this type of problem is only going to get worse for the Russians as they move through increasingly congested roads closer to populated areas, where they have even less mobility than now (Where they are still limited in Northern Ukrainian fronts because of ground conditions).

I mean if they're getting whacked like that on the outskirts in relatively open terrain, what will happen as they start to move into "Tank Funnels" into areas with higher rise buildings, etc...?
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6755 on: March 10, 2022, 06:42:17 PM »
The Russian economy has gotten so bad that you have to wait in line 6 or 7 hours just to withdraw the equivalent of $13.70 in cash.  One man named Yury was waiting for 3 hours in line to withdraw cash and it only moved a little bit.  He was getting more and more fed up as he stood there shivering in Novopushkinsky Square.  So he looked at his friend Boris and said, "I've had enough of this, I'm going to go kill president Putin."  And with that he sprinted off towards the Kremlin.  45 minutes later he came sulking back.  The line still hadn't moved at all.  "Did you kill Putin?" asked Boris.  "No", said Yury, "the line for that was even longer than this one."
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6756 on: March 10, 2022, 06:46:32 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 05:53:41 PM
I get that the main focus of weapons deliveries has been on getting anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, but the DP was last manufactured in the USSR in the 50s, and started production in 1928. Maybe we should ship some machine guns too?



tbh they have already received a ton of machine guns from various countries in recent weeks including from at minimum the following countries:

Belgium- 2,000
Canada-  Huh
Czech Republic- Huh
Italy-  Huh?
Spain- Huh?
Croatia- Huh
United States- Huh



https://inews.co.uk/news/world/nato-countries-ukraine-border-supply-weapons-border-grenade-launchers-machine-guns-1506641

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/nato-weapons-ukraine-russia.html

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/putin-has-a-problem-ukraine-is-getting-an-arsenal-of-weapons-from-the-west/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-receives-shipment-of-machine-guns-and-surveillance-gear-from-canada-1.5788467

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-to-get-grenade-launchers-machine-guns-from-spain-to-fight-against-russia-report-2800269

https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/weapons-access-ukraine/
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Storr
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« Reply #6757 on: March 10, 2022, 07:02:24 PM »
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 06:25:16 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 06:14:26 PM
Bunching up your tanks closely together along the obvious route to Kyiv, what could go wrong?



Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Translation of the audio according to reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tau6ow/comment/i032xqu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Voice1: Nitro, I'm Udar. Copy
Voice2: Udar, I'm Nitro. 6th regiment lost.
Voice1: What?
Voice2: I cannot report about 6th regiment. I'm collecting data. Lots of losses. They waited for us. Head of the convoy got into the ambush. Regiment commander killed in action. Sorting about the rest.
Voice1: As soon as you sort things out report to me. Do you copy?
Voice2: ... Tanks and artillery were shelling from there. Drones, from Bayraktar as I understood. I'm sorting out the other losses.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6758 on: March 10, 2022, 07:07:51 PM »
How many more loses can the Russians reasonably sustain?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6759 on: March 10, 2022, 07:08:08 PM »
Per The Guardian ~ 6 minutes ago.... Russian Convoy NW of Kyiv dispersing.

Quote
Satellite images show a large Russian military convoy, last seen north-west of Kyiv near Antonov airport, has largely dispersed and redeployed, a private US company said on Thursday.

Maxar Technologies said images taken on Thursday show armoured units manoeuvring in and through the surrounding towns close to the airport, according to a Reuters report.

It said images also show convoy elements further north have repositioned near Lubyanka with towed artillery howitzers in firing positions nearby.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/10/ukraine-news-russia-war-kyiv-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-invasion-hospital-bombing-latest-live-updates
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6760 on: March 10, 2022, 07:14:43 PM »
Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)
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Person Man
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« Reply #6761 on: March 10, 2022, 07:25:24 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on March 10, 2022, 07:14:43 PM
Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)







Encouraging, but I want to see them start collecting scalps.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6762 on: March 10, 2022, 07:43:50 PM »
How many more troops can Putin put into Ukraine without endangering the security of Russia's borders?  They still need to be guarded and protected after all, while this is going on...
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Torrain
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« Reply #6763 on: March 10, 2022, 07:44:00 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2022, 07:50:20 PM by Torrain »
Noted non-NATO state, Sweden, pledges to meet NATO defence spending targets.
No indicator that they’re giving up on neutrality - but it’s a remarkable statement of intent to Moscow regardless…
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #6764 on: March 10, 2022, 07:49:25 PM »
Quote from: Frodo on March 10, 2022, 07:43:50 PM
How many more troops can Putin put into Ukraine without endangering the security of Russia's borders?  They still need to be guarded and protected after all, while this is going on...

I suspect they're reaching that limit, and that's why they're looking into even more draconian conscription policies. They also must be thinking that more domestic unrest is likely on its way and need to prepare for that too.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6765 on: March 10, 2022, 08:07:00 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on March 10, 2022, 07:08:08 PM
Per The Guardian ~ 6 minutes ago.... Russian Convoy NW of Kyiv dispersing.

Quote
Satellite images show a large Russian military convoy, last seen north-west of Kyiv near Antonov airport, has largely dispersed and redeployed, a private US company said on Thursday.

Maxar Technologies said images taken on Thursday show armoured units manoeuvring in and through the surrounding towns close to the airport, according to a Reuters report.

It said images also show convoy elements further north have repositioned near Lubyanka with towed artillery howitzers in firing positions nearby.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/10/ukraine-news-russia-war-kyiv-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-invasion-hospital-bombing-latest-live-updates

CNN also had a brief gig about this as well (Includes a few satellite images now that cloud cover is breaking), and I would imagine that as non-governmental analysts pour over the data sets in greater detail, we'll get a greater sense of what this might mean.

Quote
With the clouds temporarily clearing around the Ukrainian capital, new satellite images taken earlier on Thursday show that the Russian military convoy northwest of Kyiv that stretched more than 40 miles (more than 64 kilometers) has "largely dispersed and redeployed," Maxar Technologies says.

The satellite images show that some elements of the convoy have "repositioned" into forests and treelined areas near Lubyanka, Ukraine, according to Maxar. The satellite images were taken at 11:37 a.m. Kyiv time (4.37 a.m. ET) on Thursday.

Just north of the Antonov Airbase in Hostomel, Ukraine, Russian military vehicles are seen sitting on roadways in residential areas in the town of Ozera — 17 miles northwest of Kyiv.

Towed artillery and other vehicles are seen taking cover in a sparse patches of trees near Lubyanka — about three miles northwest of the Antonov Airbase.

In Berestyanka — 10 miles west of the airbase — a number of fuel trucks and, what Maxar says, appears to be multiple rocket launchers are seen positioned in a field near trees.

Southeast of Ivankiv — the end of what was the 40+ mile convoy — a number of trucks and equipment are still seen on the roadway.


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/index.html

NYT now has a brief article:

Quote
Following days of cloud cover that obscured visibility, new satellite imagery collected on Wednesday and Thursday indicates that the vast Russian military convoy near Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital — which had previously stretched out, with some gaps, over roughly 40 miles — has largely dispersed and redeployed.

One image shows some of the military vehicles repositioned along a line of trees near the village of Lubyanka, about 30 miles northwest of Kyiv. The imagery was collected by Maxar Technologies, a U.S. space technology company.

Several of the redeployments shown in the satellite images are near Antonov International Airport, which lies between Lubyanka and Kyiv. The convoy was known to have reached that airport as of Feb. 28, suggesting that the vehicles in the images had not moved significantly closer to Kyiv. The images also show further damage to civilian areas on the outskirts of the capital.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/10/world/ukraine-russia-war
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #6766 on: March 10, 2022, 08:13:14 PM »
New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10
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riceowl
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« Reply #6767 on: March 10, 2022, 08:43:27 PM »
Quote from: Torrain on March 10, 2022, 07:44:00 PM
Noted non-NATO state, Sweden, pledges to meet NATO defence spending targets.
No indicator that they’re giving up on neutrality - but it’s a remarkable statement of intent to Moscow regardless…


I thought Trump was going to make this happen?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6768 on: March 10, 2022, 09:03:27 PM »
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Storr
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« Reply #6769 on: March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM »
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.








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pppolitics
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« Reply #6770 on: March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win
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Person Man
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« Reply #6771 on: March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #6772 on: March 10, 2022, 09:33:38 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2022, 09:36:59 PM by pppolitics »
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.
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Storr
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« Reply #6773 on: March 10, 2022, 09:58:25 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2022, 10:05:51 PM by Storr »
Quote from: pppolitics link=topic=469771.msg8516928#msg8516928 date=16469660
[tweet
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=p18 uid=13804]
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.

jNK-rLQjquvtlah-kYRxA[/tweet]







As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.
The problem is that Putin sees Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU as one in the same. That's why Euromaidan happened in the first place, Putin pressured Yanukovych into not singing Ukraine's EU Association Agreement. The whole business about NATO expansion is just manufactured justification for Russia's aggressive actions. If NATO wasn't an issue, there would be something else used as justification. Moldova has neutrality written into the Constitution. But Russia still constantly meddles in and threatens the country for sole purpose of preventing it from integrating with Europe and pursuing EU membership.
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Omega21
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« Reply #6774 on: March 10, 2022, 10:00:51 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2022, 10:05:39 PM by Omega21 »
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:33:38 PM
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

I am with you on this one.

Basically I am still sticking with:

Quote from: Omega21 on February 25, 2022, 04:54:44 PM

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU


Only thing that might be different is Donbas, I can imagine the whole (de jure) region getting autonomy, but I can also imagine Ukraine renouncing the pre February 22 occupied areas, whilst maintaining federal control of the rest.

This scratches Putins itch for some kind of a "win", whilst also keeping Ukraine a viable & more stable nation with even more potential for the future, especially considering the level of Aid that the EU/US will pour in afterwards.

Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:58:25 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:33:38 PM
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.
The problem is that Putin sees Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU as one in the same. That's why Euromaidan happened in the first place, Putin pressured Yanukovych into not singing Ukraine's EU Association Agreement. The whole business about NATO expansion is just manufactured justification for Russia's aggressive actions. If NATO wasn't the issue, there would be something else l used as justification. Moldova has neutrality written into the Constitution. But Russia still constantly meddles with and threatens the country for sole purpose of preventing it from integrating with Europe, and pursuing EU membership.

Ukraine giving up EU is like Russia giving up Crimea. Both are extremely unlikely to happen.

Russia cannot afford to keep this going indefinitely, but neither can Ukraine. Russia is losing men, Ukraine is losing territory & billions of infrastructure, so I assume that eventually both sides will cave in some regards.
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