Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Xing]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

Uh that’s not quite accurate. 22k statewide is a strong lead, but in 2016 the EV lead was 47k. Obviously Dems won by about 25k in the senate race in the end, meaning that between winning Indy’s and ED Rs gained 22k. If you assume 80% turnout then that’s a 18k gain, which would indicate Dems winning by 4K statewide if 2018 follows 2016 patterns exactly.

So in other words, a 2016 performance would yield toss-up / tilt D races. Of course, 2018 is not 2016 and Ds seem primed to do better on ED than they have in the past, perhaps battling it to a near draw. Additionally, Ds should do better with Indys than they did two years ago.

In other words, it’s a Lean D race in both the senate and governors races, but it’s not likely or safe based on these numbers. It is in fact a worse showing than Ds had in 2016 early voting, though only by a bit. Dems definitely turned up the heat a lot yesterday though - without that Clark performance things were going to look more like a pure tossup.

The thing is, in 2016, everything went the Trump's/Heck's way on ED, and it still wasn't enough. And while if everything goes Heller's/Laxalt's way on ED this year, that would make it an ever closer call, it probably still wouldn't be enough. That shows just how dire things are for the Republicans right now.

FWIW, Ralston, who has described both races as Toss-Ups all year, is now leaning them toward the Democrats, and he's usually very careful about putting races in the Lean/Likely column.

[junior chįmp]

Clark numbers are posted.    48,833 Total votes yesterday.

Drumpf sounds awfully nervous::

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1058758825300365312

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminWHanson/status/1058738359114305536

[new_patomic]

On the one hand Heitkamp needs epic turnout/margins in Cass if she wants to win. So this is probably a good sign.

On the other hand most of the population growth in North Dakota, in places like Cass included, has been related to the oil boom which could mean newer voters skew right. So if these numbers are being fueled predominately by new voters, that could be a bad sign.

[Sorenroy]

Early voting in North Carolina has ended as of 1:00 PM today. Early voting data can be found here, but it likely won't be updated with today's info for at least a few hours. I'm sure Michael Bitzer over at Old North State Politics will make an excellent summery whenever the final data is uploaded.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminWHanson/status/1058738359114305536

FREITKAMP FREIWAL

[RI]

I made some maps comparing the 2018 Clark County EV+MB vote to the 2016 EV+MB:

2018 Partisanship:


2016 Partisanship:


2018 Turnout Relative to 2016:


Partisan Swing, 2016-18


Turnout is clearly lagging in the Hispanic NE part of the Vegas metro (NLV, Sunrise Manor) while up in the more Republican suburbs, although these suburban areas appear more Dem than 2016.

Precinct Type	Rel. Turnout	Swing
Majority White	77.8%	R+1
Majority Black	62.2%	D+1
Majority Hispanic	57.8%	R+8
Majority Trump	85.0%	R+2
Majority Clinton	68.0%	R+4
Above Avg. Less than HS	63.9%	R+5
Above Avg. HS Grads	71.5%	R+3
Above Avg. Some Coll	76.0%	R+2
Above Avg. Bach Deg	79.3%	R+1
Above Avg. Grad Deg	77.0%	R+1
Below Avg. Income	67.0%	R+4
Above Avg. Income	79.2%	R+1

[wbrocks67]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

Uh that’s not quite accurate. 22k statewide is a strong lead, but in 2016 the EV lead was 47k. Obviously Dems won by about 25k in the senate race in the end, meaning that between winning Indy’s and ED Rs gained 22k. If you assume 80% turnout then that’s a 18k gain, which would indicate Dems winning by 4K statewide if 2018 follows 2016 patterns exactly.

So in other words, a 2016 performance would yield toss-up / tilt D races. Of course, 2018 is not 2016 and Ds seem primed to do better on ED than they have in the past, perhaps battling it to a near draw. Additionally, Ds should do better with Indys than they did two years ago.

In other words, it’s a Lean D race in both the senate and governors races, but it’s not likely or safe based on these numbers. It is in fact a worse showing than Ds had in 2016 early voting, though only by a bit. Dems definitely turned up the heat a lot yesterday though - without that Clark performance things were going to look more like a pure tossup.

You shouldn't compare raw vote totals, considering turnout is not the same.

[Ebsy]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I made some maps comparing the 2018 Clark County EV+MB vote to the 2016 EV+MB:

Nice maps, well done!

[Brittain33]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

[Gass3268]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

Pretty clear looking at the map in 2016, that a decent chunk of registered Democrats voted for Trump and the NPAs broke heavily towards him.

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminWHanson/status/1058738359114305536

Lol at people who wrote things like, "Heitkamp was gonna lose by 5% but now shes gonna lose by 15% because #Kavanaughbump"

While I'm not saying she'll win...this is very much still a toss up

[psychprofessor]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

Pretty clear looking at the map in 2016, that a decent chunk of registered Democrats voted for Trump and the NPAs broke heavily towards him.

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.

[Brittain33]

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.

It's something to talk about. It's ok to disqualify it, but it's still interesting.

[Vern]

I wonder if we are getting all these record number of early voting turn-out because people are voting early instead of on election day. And if this keeps happening then how would that change how people campaign.

[new_patomic]

I wonder if we are getting all these record number of early voting turn-out because people are voting early instead of on election day. And if this keeps happening then how would that change how people campaign.

I don't think it changes how people campaign. Campaigns want people to early vote for a reason. It's a lot less uncertainty to deal with come election day is a demonstration of you getting your supporters to the polls.

But it does mean increasing complications for, say, exit polls, and polls in general.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ralston has done some great work reporting, thanks sir.

[Gass3268]

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.

It's something to talk about. It's ok to disqualify it, but it's still interesting.

Agreed, what's the comparison to 2014. I do like that IA-03 number.

[DataGuy]

Cumulative Texas early vote report, in-person + mail-in/absentee.

Clinton Counties

Harris County: 36.59% of reg. voters, 87.56% of 2016.
Dallas County: 39.66% of reg. voters, 96.33% of 2016.
Bexar County: 37.71% of reg. voters, 87.77% of 2016.
Travis County: 47.43% of reg. voters, 97.45% of 2016.
El Paso County: 30.51% of reg. voters, 92.46% of 2016.
Fort Bend County: 46.14% of reg. voters, 93.30% of 2016.
Hidalgo County: 31.68% of reg. voters, 81.93% of 2016.
Cameron County: 26.37% of reg. voters, 84.96% of 2016.

Trump Counties

Tarrant County: 41.49% of reg. voters, 90.41% of 2016.
Collin County: 49.39% of reg. voters, 94.85% of 2016.
Denton County: 45.96% of reg. voters, 95.29% of 2016.
Montgomery County: 41.42% of reg. voters, 88.08% of 2016.
Williamson County: 48.97% of reg. voters, 100.01% of 2016.
Galveston County: 42.41% of reg. voters, 88.84% of 2016.
Nueces County: 32.96% of reg. voters, 90.36% of 2016.

Averages

Trump Counties: 43.23% of reg. voters, 92.55% of 2016.
Clinton Counties: 37.01% of reg. voters, 90.22% of 2016.


Overall, Trump counties saw higher turnout both in terms of registered voters and relative to 2016's numbers.

Drilling into specific regions, one of the most energized counties was Travis County, which is bad news for the GOP since it's heavily Democratic. But on the flip side, Republicans also have reason to be optimistic due to lackluster enthusiasm in overwhelmingly Democratic South Texas. That suggests that perhaps the Hispanic voter surge, which is said to be coming every election year, might not too big after all.

[KingSweden]

Isn’t Webb County the big headache for Dems down in the RGV? My understanding was that turnout was decent in the rest

[RI]

The Hispanic share of the early/absentee electorate is up from 2014 but down from 2016 in most places, it seems.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Hispanic share of the early/absentee electorate is up from 2014 but down from 2016 in most places, it seems.

2016 Presidential election =/= 2018 midterm election.

[Brittain33]

The Hispanic share of the early/absentee electorate is up from 2014 but down from 2016 in most places, it seems.

2016 Presidential election =/= 2018 midterm election.

I don't understand the purpose of pointing this out. We understand turnout won't be quite as high as a President election, but that is the only data set we have for a Trump vs. not-Trump election. We all take it for granted this will be a much better election than 2014 for Democrats; what we need to know is if it will be better than 2016 or around the same for Dems.

[Ebsy]

Latinos do not typically vote early.