Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Brittain33]

At this time in...
2014: 4,163 ballots; 78% white
2018: 6,585 ballots; 48% white

If only we could hear krazen's response to this news.

[Brittain33]

Do we know anything about "Other Race"? That increase is pretty remarkable by %.

[Brittain33]

Gwinnett County is rejecting a much higher percentage of mail-in ballots from Asian and African-American voters than from white voters. Of course.

https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/10/12/exclusive-high-rate-of-absentee-ballot-rejection-reeks-of-voter-suppression/

[Brittain33]

Follow this guy on Twitter. He's putting up lots of great graphs on NC early voting.

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1051844693607243781

[Brittain33]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

Polling station on a university campus? How did the Republican state government not shut that down already?

[Brittain33]

Over 10,000 people voted in Davidson County, TN (Nashville) on the first day of early voting.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/17/nashville-early-voting-turnout-midterms-2018/1675688002/

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Not bad.

Swift bump

[Brittain33]

Kansas mailed ballots (as of 8:00 AM on 10/17):

128,220 Sent (compared to 133,822 in 2016; 89,285 in 2014)

GOP - 51,558 (40.21%)
DEM - 51,326 (40.02%)
UNA - 24,665 (19.24%)
LIB - 670 (0.53%)

Whoa. I can't imagine this is anywhere near typical in Kansas, right?

That's like GOP turnout equaling Dem turnout in Massachusetts. I know nothing about past patterns but it's not as if there's a vital Democratic party with a humming turnout machine in that state, no?

[Brittain33]

anyone know where we can find numbers for NC? I voted Friday and the line to vote was very long.

This account has a ton of data, not sure if it's exactly what you're looking for

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol

[Brittain33]

The gap closed a bit, but Republicans need to be at least tied in Washoe, don't they?

[Brittain33]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

It’s a politics forum. This is our hobby!

[Brittain33]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

I just posted that.

It’s not his fault. He started a thread for it and I merged it into the megathread where it belonged.

[Brittain33]

Of course Beet would change the thread title for attention.

When that happens, it’s usually because a mod has merged a freestanding thread into an existing thread (as in this case).

[Brittain33]

Praying for Beto

You're beto off praying for Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, and Kyrsten Sinema.

LOL

Did you forget you were pretending to be a socialist who was voting Republican to advance progressive causes? Just trying to help.

[Brittain33]

I must confess I’m getting nervous that turnout is getting too high to the point we might have a really polarized result

I'm feeling that the ideal real of high Dem and indy turnout and low GOP turnout is just not going to happen—the Republicans love them some Trump—so I'm putting my hope in Dem turnout being really high and Indys breaking heavily against Trump's party.

[Brittain33]

This thread was a mistake.

WHAT ELSE ARE WE GOING TO TALK ABOUT? Just polls?

[Brittain33]

I'm going to add a disclaimer to the thread title because I'm sick of people posting to this thread to tell us to stop talking about the early vote.

[Brittain33]

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election.

I think it was highly doubtful they would do that for a House election, but they did, and we can't wave away the fact they did or that the polls show Sinema leading. It's possible that Republican defections the last two years all reverse themselves for the general election... if so Dems are in a world of hurt nationally, though.

[Brittain33]

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

Obama tried the same thing, and in that case it succeeded, twice.

Yeah, call me crazy but it could be that AA turnout % in florida may be a little higher than in 2016 with an african-American candidate.

[Brittain33]

Jefferson County is the oddball to have high relative turnout. Williamson doesn't surprise me because of the education and affluence there, and could indicate both Republican and Democratic strength.

[Brittain33]

High energy blacks voting in Jefferson County? Betomania!

Hmmm, ok I figured out Jefferson County.

The day 2 # on the Secretary of State website is an error. If you check at the Jefferson County website, you can see that 13,471 is the number of CUMULATIVE in person votes, so that includes the day 1 numbers as well. The day 2 number for Jefferson County SHOULD be 6,374, not 13,471.

https://www.jeffersonelections.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EARLY-VOTING-TURNOUT-11-06-18.pdf

Thanks for checking that.

That's brilliant.

[Brittain33]

If you look at precinct results in Arizona, either in 2016 or the recent special election, it is pretty clear that Clinton/Tipirmeni obtained majorities among unaffiliated voter and also got a decent sized chunk of GOP registered voters in some suburban areas.

You can't compare a Special Election vs a General Election.

Can you come up with any reason Republicans would vote for the Dem in large numbers in a special election, but not a general election a few months later? If this were AL-Sen, I would grant the point that it was weird, but Lesko was generic R and Tiperneni was "some lady" D, it was as close to a generic ballot as you can get.

[Brittain33]

Virtually all of the Dem under performance vs 2016 right now in Nevada is occurring in Clark. Right now, Dem-GOP spread in early vote alone is around 12% of total Clark vote, was 21% in week 1 2016.

From what I've seen of Ralston's posts, the Dem underperformance in Clark is really Republican overperformance against past weakness. It's the same thing as far as the end result but the cause is different.

[Brittain33]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

Yes, we know it doesn't prove anything

[Brittain33]

If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.

I remember Larry Schweikart bragging on FreeRepublic in 2006 that Ken Blackwell was going to defeat Ted Strickland based on his experience canvassing in Hamilton County.

[Brittain33]

Can the mods please ban any further discussion about NV in this thread thanks

You're going to need to find better data and a Ralston in a different state to steer this car somewhere else.