Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[psychprofessor]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Eh, fair enough I guess. I guess if you were hoping for/expecting a massive wave something like this would put a damper on it, but I never expected it to be a tsunami. And to me Rosen still looks on track to win, albeit by a smaller margin than I would've predicted a week ago.

Plus, we still have a lot of time left before this EV data is final.

A wave isn't winning by large margins...a wave is when all the close states break your way. NV and AZ were never going to be large margin wins...but in a wave they will both break to the DEMS.

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

[psychprofessor]

I want Democrats to turn out the base, without banking that Independents are swinging their way. Especially when the Republicans are turning out their base. Trump has pretty much solidified the Republican base. He's the most popular Republican president since Reagan, among Republican voters. Democrats have to do better than what they're currently doing in their big counties.

The fact that at this stage Democrats have surged in early vote to almost pull even is remarkable. Remember, in 2014 Republicans held a tremendous advantage in early and mail vote and Scott barely beat Crist. The fact that Democrats have for the most part pulled even at this point is really noteworthy. And look at how the NPI's have surged, as well.

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

CNN, Q and NYT/Siena

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

And to take this one step further - and also with a caveat that the sample sizes are small, but in the NYT/Siena poll, both Gillum and Nelson lead with "already voted" by 6 and 7 points, respectively. What this tells me is that the "others", such as NPA's are breaking to the DEMS.

[psychprofessor]

Interesting numbers out of Texas:

More
Nuggets from Texas early voting (as of 10/29):

•Early votes cast- 791,858 more than 2014 total
•% of 1st time voters almost 2x 2014- 5% to 9.2%
•Hispanic surname voters up- 15.2% in 14 to 19.1%
•Dems down 33.4% in 14 to 28.4%
•Under 40 are bigger % of early voters than 14

However, the % 1st time voters are people who have NEVER voted in any previous election in Texas, so there is no way to determine their party affiliation.  Republicans were only down 0.2% from 14.

[psychprofessor]

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057707301912535040

Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?

Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison

I think it was like 3.5

From this article it appears a week before the election in 2016 it was +6 R and +11-12 R in 2012.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/

[psychprofessor]

In which election did Democrats end up at a 4-5 point deficit? 2016?

yes, and I don't get why people keep comparing 2018 to 2016...

[psychprofessor]

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day.

[psychprofessor]

Dems win Washoe, up by 600 woo hoo

[psychprofessor]

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day of new voters.

This is what people have been failing to understand no matter how many times it is explained. Reid won by 6 points in a red wave year with a pitiful early vote lead. Yeah, you can dismiss it with MUH Sharron Angle, yet nobody seems to have a problem with using MUH 2016 as a measure for Rosen's benchmarks, so...

And let's suppose we use 2016 as a benchmark, Cortez-Masto won by 2.4 points overall but lost I's by 10. I guess it's possible that Heller can win I's by double digits but nothing in the polling suggests thats the case, esp in this environment.

[psychprofessor]

Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058335787807326208

With the big, blue counties continuing early vote over the weekend, this gap may get under a point...impressive in a midterm

[psychprofessor]

GOP advantage not looking nearly so insurmountable in Arizona.

It isn't, read the tea leaves, average age of early vote keeps trending down, average percentage of women voters trending up, and in a midterm having a low to mid single digit R reg advantage is not very good for McSally.

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058513670982922241

Clark already hit 35K. Looks like it will top 40K, could it reach 45K?

If it does, and Democrats get a strong margin, the freiwal could come close to or hit 45K, and Democrats could come close to a statewide lead of 20K.

Maybe reaches 45-50k today according to Ralston...unbelievable

[psychprofessor]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

Pretty clear looking at the map in 2016, that a decent chunk of registered Democrats voted for Trump and the NPAs broke heavily towards him.

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.