@NOVA what does the OR legislature look like? Any gains for Democrats you think are likely?
is certainly a possibility. It's an open seat that was represented by a Republican that includes Ashland, Medford, and some surrounding rural areas and smaller towns.
Most of the population lives in the Belt from Medford to Ashland...
Although Medford is the largest City in Oregon to vote it for Trump, he still won it with less than 50% of the Vote. It's also a relatively fast growing City.
Ashland is an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold, and EV numbers overall point to an extremely strong DEM performance in Jackson County to date.
State Senate District 10 could potentially be interesting in a wave election, represented by a Republican in a fairly Democratic District including Salem & Keizar.
https://ballotpedia.org/Jackie_WintersStill Jackie is fairly popular and has a reputation as a Liberal Republican, who frequently crosses over to vote for key Democratic policy initiatives.
Thus far Turnout in Marion has been lower than statewide averages, likely being driven down a bit by Turnout in the City of Salem, which is a relatively solidly Democratic City, but with a relatively large Younger and Latino population.
South Salem isn't as heavily Democratic as some other parts of the City, and there are some "exurban" type places within the LD.
It does include the City of Independence, which is basically a Sister City of Monmouth, and hence has a decent Student, Staff, and Faculty presence and pretty solidly Democratic City in most partisan elections.
(Unfortunately I can't break down turnout by Cities within Oregon at this point, solely by County so it gets trickier to assess based upon Early VbM numbers).
State Senate District 13 is tougher than it might appear on paper....
Sure it has a sliver of Democratic Hillsboro....
Wilsonville is a fairly fast growing Exurban City, which has gone from being a Republican stronghold in the late '80s and most of '90s to becoming a DEM leaning City.
Newburg in Yamhill County is an extremely fast growing Exurban City on the SW fringes of Metro Portland, and has started to shift Democratic at a fairly decent clip within just the past Decade.
Keizer is the largest population center within the District and is relatively WWC in terms of Educational and Occupational classifications (Although not nearly as Old as many lumped into the WWC Demographic.). It voted for Trump by ~ 10% in '16, and although I don't have the numbers at my fingertips it was less than 50% PUB, with significant 3rd Party defections. It's also a fairly "swingy" kind of place.
Where I say the District can get tricky is that the rural areas floating around the district are heavily Republican farming type precincts, and in statewide elections you're generally not going to see the types of farming in the Willamette Valley swing DEM (Other than maybe some Christmas Tree and Marijuana farmers, organic farmers, etc). Grass-seed/Grains and livestock farmers in the Mid Valley tend to vote heavily Republican.
State Senate District 20 is an interesting DEM pickup concept....
It has a decent chunk of DEM strongholds in NW ClackCo, but also some of the most Republican rural parts of the County.
State Senate District 26 is potentially a more feasible DEM pickup opportunity, considering that it is a pretty solidly Lean DEM district overall in most elections both Federal and State elections.
You have a nice decent chunk of outer SE PDX, (Which is not an overwhelmingly Democratic part of the City), some relatively affluent, educated, and fast growing Exurbs out in Happy Valley/Damascus, and then the district stretches East and includes a wide variety of Rural Communities, and the Democratic stronghold of Hood River County.
So, to summarize:
1.) The battle to gain a Democratic Super-Majority in the OR-SEN is being fought on generally positive terrain for the Democrats
in terms of Federal Level Elections
2.) The Portland Exurbs will be key to any massive breakthrough in the OR-SEN for the DEMs (And quite possibly the OR-GOV race). These are precisely the types of communities where we saw some of the biggest swings at the US PRES from '12 > '16 towards the DEMs.
*IF* OR DEMS can breakthrough at a Statewide level in these types of Communities, will likely play a key roll.
3.) Trump's regressive Taxation policies are likely to hit hard in many of these Districts, especially when the Taxman comes around in April... (Oregon has now Sales Taxes, a relatively high but progressive State Income Tax, doesn't mess around with fees for GVT services like many other States).
4.) These voters want services from Government, such as K-12 Schools, Roads that are maintained for frequently long commutes, etc...
5.) If the Federal Government can't provide these services, Exurban communities will expect State Government to provide the funding gap, and will likely be extremely pissed off about any "local candidate" with an (R) next to their name on the ballot, because of the flawed priorities of Republicans at the Federal Level.
6.) Will it happen in Oregon at the Statewide level in 2018? IDK... if not 2020 will be a Year or reckoning in my home State.
Anyways... I'll have to take a peak at state House races this weekend, but that's at least a sneak preview of places we might see DEM gains to gain a Super-Majority in the OR-State SEN.
NoVA GREEN
