Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't like these numbers if I were Dean Heller.

(So far) it looks like the polls could get the NV senate race wrong for the third time in a row...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, I would not want to be Dean Heller right now...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

The guy who runs TargetSmart just slammed NBC on twitter for misinterpreting his data.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OK, for El Paso I don't have an exact #, but a news article says "more than 15,000" and that it is higher than 2016.

https://www.kvia.com/news/texas/early-voting-in-texas-begins-with-lines-strong-turnout/818526327

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El Paso/El Paso County

2018: Unknown HIGHER than 16,117
2016: 16,117
2014: 2,817


So it is more than 5 times 2014 levels...

So yeah, looks like Hispanics are indeed voting (so far), to a MUCH greater extent than I would have expected based on historical turnout.

Truly crazy.

So it looks like that last-minute surge in enthusiasm amongst Latinos (according to NBC) is coming true. Bodes very well for the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This thread makes me want to roll my eyes out of my head

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hopefully we get more of these so that the GOP knows to stay home

https://twitter.com/DrTurleyTalks/status/1054858033359151107

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

I'd love to be the fly on the wall at CMR's campaign HQ

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Colorado Update

Comparing now vs 2014


October 24 (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  55,450 (64,777)
Republicans  57,695 (91,060)
Independent 44,300 (46,404)

Democrats are barely running behind Rethuglican returned ballots while at this point in time in 2014, Republicans were decisively ahead. We'll have a better idea though once we get more ballots.

Looks good! Although we already know Polis is going to win. The real question is the 3rd Congressional District.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

Yeah, Rosen is winning this election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Democrats need a pretty good day in Clark for today not to be a bad day for them, but assuming they get 2K, we're probably not going to see that much of a gain for Republicans. It is frustrating to see that so many people are excited to give Trump more rubber stamps, but that's generally how the cult mentality works.

I'm more irritated that this is just more fuel for Trump's Red Wave hysteria, even though the Dem advantage is inevitably going to be larger by the time EV concludes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten. Besides, those red state Dem candidates are ALL relying on crossover support from Republicans to win their elections, so what makes you think they're voting strictly on party lines?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

Blue Avs are really going hard at the “muh 2016” argument lately.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.

It really doesn’t make anything that Schale said untrue.

Besides, Orange County trending Democrat has been accepted by both side of the spectrum

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

Is Ralston predicting a Rosen win?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

Is Ralston predicting a Rosen win?

He's not projecting anything, as far as I know.

Projecting and predicting are two different things.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Am I missing something? Their firewall is at ~3.5k statewide, not 18k? Wasn't their firewall at ~50k statewide in 2016 after EV?

You shouldn't compare 2016 EV to midterm EV. In any case, he was talking about the Clark firewall, which is currently at 18k.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Early voting lasts until 11/2, so 7 days. If Democrats can keep the current pace of at least winning the county by 2,000 votes they would have a lead of 32,000 by election day. Now if they can get a crooked number tomorrow and increase their margins for the last 6 days, which historically tend to happen, 35,000 is totally possible.

So the possibility of Rosen winning the election by at least 5 points is highly possible?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA doesn't have early voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Dems adding 3.4k (!) to the Clark firewall despite it being a low turnout day.

Holy sh*t

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

11.5k.

Also, keep in mind the second Sunday is usually the worst day for turnout in the state and there was still 20k turnout in Clark.

Not great for Heller, since he's the one who said high turnout hurts him lol.