Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattlargey/status/1058568111488724992

2016 last day was 42,932
2014 last day was 22,059

So pretty good - very close to 2016 turnout there.

[ON Progressive]

It's funny how earlier tonight people were going nuts over Clark possibly breaking 40k turnout and now it's almost certain we're going to see 50k+ turnout.

[TarHeelDem]

All hail the Great Freiwal, our destiny and salvation! Blessed be Saint Harry and may he be eternally thanked for his great workings in the realm of Nevada!

In all seriousness, I hope these numbers can compel the forum to focus on more interesting Senate races through Election Day.

[IceSpear]

All hail the Great Freiwal, our destiny and salvation! Blessed be Saint Harry and may he be eternally thanked for his great workings in the realm of Nevada!

In all seriousness, I hope these numbers can compel the forum to focus on more interesting Senate races through Election Day.

Nah, Atlas will go back to thinking Heller wins (even during a Democratic tsunami!) the next time an Emerson poll shows him ahead.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anybody know the exact moment the Nevada Senate race was decided? I do!

[YE]

Hopefully I can add 1 to the absentee ballot numbers as soon as I actually get my ballot. Of course, I'll have to return it ASAP.

Honestly Jacky Rosen is going to be one of the more right wing Democrats there is. I wouldn't start worshiping her. I'm much more excited to vote for breaking up monopolies and automatic voter registration and voting for Aaron Ford, Kate Marshall, Nelson Arajuo, and Steve Sisolak. I'm not even too found of Susie Lee given her background with charter schools but public education isn't something the House has much control over. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Does anybody know the exact moment the Nevada Senate race was decided? I do!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When will we know the tally?

[IceSpear]

Hopefully I can add 1 to the absentee ballot numbers as soon as I actually get my ballot. Of course, I'll have to return it ASAP.

Honestly Jacky Rosen is going to be one of the more right wing Democrats there is. I wouldn't start worshiping her. I'm much more excited to vote for breaking up monopolies and automatic voter registration and voting for Aaron Ford, Kate Marshall, Nelson Arajuo, and Steve Sisolak. I'm not even too found of Susie Lee given her background with charter schools but public education isn't something the House has much control over. 

I never even cared about Jacky Rosen at first. In fact, I didn't even know who she was until I came back to Atlas about a year ago and stated tuning into politics again. Yet all I see on Atlas is how she's a weak, awful, toxic, worst candidate ever. Expecting the worst, I look her up, and what do I find? Literally a generic Democrat. No scandals, absolutely nothing wrong with her, except people not liking her haircut or speaking skills. Atlas's constant idiocy about her and this race in general is what made me a Rosen fanboy, just to counter all the flagrant stupidity here.

And the fact that Atlas and the pundits were all convinced that Dean Heller, who only beat a corrupt lady under ethics investigation who looks like a wax figure by 1 point while getting less votes than Mitt Romney, was some Unbeatable Titan who could be re-elected even in a Democratic tsunami because of the aforementioned factors plus junk polls (which are ALWAYS wrong in Nevada) showing him ahead only intensified the feeling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to Ralston, all the polling stations are closed.

[new_patomic]

Does anybody know the exact moment the Nevada Senate race was decided? I do!

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

[SCNCmod]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

[Ebsy]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

Who on twitter is saying things are dire?

[ON Progressive]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

President Hillary Clinton agrees that Florida early voting numbers tell us anything about who will win.

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

Dems on pace to whittle the advantage down to R+7 tomorrow which would be about the same as the 2016 EV gap

Considering Dems lost AZ in 2016... is this a worrisome early vote result for Dems?

[SCNCmod]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

Who on twitter is saying things are dire?

Well at least that Dems are much further behind that in 2016... when Dems were ahead in EV and still lost FL.

[Tender Branson]

Republicans are pretty much screwed on Tuesday.

I will likely make my final predictions tomorrow, unless there are some final polls on Monday.

But I'm more going by past Dem wave election trends, special election results and early-voting trends this time and ignore the polls, such as the R-leaning ones in TN and TX (which I think will be really close races).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

Who on twitter is saying things are dire?

Well at least that Dems are much further behind that in 2016... when Dems were ahead in EV and still lost FL.

Don’t. Compare. Presidential. EV. To. Midterm. Ones.

[Ebsy]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

Who on twitter is saying things are dire?

Well at least that Dems are much further behind that in 2016... when Dems were ahead in EV and still lost FL.

Early vote in 2016 had next to nothing to do with why Clinton narrowly lost.

[Tender Branson]

What the Story in AZ?

Dems on pace to whittle the advantage down to R+7 tomorrow which would be about the same as the 2016 EV gap

Considering Dems lost AZ in 2016... is this a worrisome early vote result for Dems?

Note that Indys broke nicely for the Rs and Trump in 2016 because of an anti-Hillary climate.

Today, Indys are breaking strongly Dem - which could overcome even a moderate R turnout advantage. See the special elections in AZ and elsewhere, where Indys broke about 2-1 for the Dems.

[Xing]

Some rurals just came in, and took about 1.7K off the Democratic margin. Turnout was up (except in Lyon, where it went way down), and Elko is still out, but given that the Democratic margin statewide is about 12.8K by my calculations, if they get a robust margin in Clark and a tie in Washoe, there's a chance that their statewide lead could get over 20K.

[ON Progressive]

Some rurals just came in, and took about 1.7K off the Democratic margin. Turnout was up (except in Lyon, where it went way down), and Elko is still out, but given that the Democratic margin statewide is about 12.8K by my calculations, if they get a robust margin in Clark and a tie in Washoe, there's a chance that their statewide lead could get over 20K.

In case anyone is wondering about Lyon: Lyon only had one early voting spot open today.

[DataGuy]

Republicans are pretty much screwed on Tuesday.

I will likely make my final predictions tomorrow, unless there are some final polls on Monday.

But I'm more going by past Dem wave election trends, special election results and early-voting trends this time and ignore the polls, such as the R-leaning ones in TN and TX (which I think will be really close races).

The overwhelming majority of predictions based on the early vote fail miserably. My model, the final predictions of which I will be posting soon, will ignore the early vote. We'll see what method fares better this time around.

[Sestak]

Republicans are pretty much screwed on Tuesday.

I will likely make my final predictions tomorrow, unless there are some final polls on Monday.

But I'm more going by past Dem wave election trends, special election results and early-voting trends this time and ignore the polls, such as the R-leaning ones in TN and TX (which I think will be really close races).

The overwhelming majority of predictions based on the early vote fail miserably. My model, the final predictions of which I will be posting soon, will ignore the early vote. We'll see what method fares better this time around.

Other states maybe, but I feel like ignoring early in NV may be a mistake.