Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeneralMacArthur]

Since Joe is fundamentally a good president who does good things that are popular with the American people, I expect his approval numbers to continue to rebound.

Vaccine mandate, overwhelming support.
Infrastructure bill, overwhelming support.
Reconciliation package, overwhelming support.

If they're successful in battling the Texas abortion law, that will also prove to be very popular.  The law is underwater even in Texas.

The utterly deranged assault on the administration by the media over Afghanistan, coupled with every pundit on the planet suddenly getting their Ph.Ds in Afghan politics from Wikipedia and playing armchair general, created the kind of frenzied negative environment that's impossible to counter.  But that's a one-time event and not something the GOP can hope to replicate anytime soon.  Thus it is not indicative of any long-term weakness in Biden's numbers.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MikeKBerg/status/1436417880837472262?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are again so concerned about polls 1 yr before the Election, it's 14 mnths a lifetime in politics, D's have the 304 blue wall anyways and Josh Mandel looks week in OH, it's the House that D's are worried about not the Senate so much

We have the blue wall but if we win VA Gov in Nov
Conservative always come to this Approval when Biden is in the 40s but they say nothing when Biden was at 50%

Trust me Biden will be near or above 50% next Nov, where was Trump, he never was above ,50%

So relax, if we lose VA the blue wall is on shaky ground but we have advantage in VBM and Early voting with the leads are within margin of error

Some of the low Approvals are self inflicted, Biden whom is a blue dog not a socialist like Warren and Bernie cut out the UBI payments and Biden was at 59% when he gave everyone 1400 checks....

If it is a 2014 Election, it would be self inflicted wound

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, PPP: 45% approval, 51% disapproval. Probably a low point.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A chance for a 2014 cycle has just gone up, without VR, and it's Sinema and Manchin fault.  It's still unlikely but it's a 30/40% chance not a 10/20% chance

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don’t imagine Biden’s problem will be his approval overall, so much as it will be the intensity of his disapproval and the lack of intensity in his support.

The people who like Joe Biden don’t love him, but the people who dislike Joe Biden seem to hate him. I’d be a little nervous to see what happens if the GOP nominates someone who is relatively inoffensive in 2024. That being said, I’m not sure such a Republican even exists these days, so who knows. Maybe Joe’s intense support will tick up when voters see who the alternative could be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not news worthy that Biden Approvals are low, he got rid of Stimulus checks, back in March he was at 59% when Stimulus checks were passed out and he hasn't Eradicated Covid

That's a fault line, but D's can still keep the Senate but lose the H like I'm 2018 but CCM and Hassan are losing

We don't have any polling in AZ, but they are still favored to keep the Senate

Let's see what happens in VA, iif Rs can crack the blue wall, it's a tight race but as always VBM and Early voting benefits T Mac


Don't forget Biden came in on Prosecuting Trump, ending Afghanistan and eradicating COVID and so far his SOS and Merrick Garland both have been disappointments, base wants Trump prosecuted but FBI cleared Trump of Insurrection

[Bootes Void]

I don’t imagine Biden’s problem will be his approval overall, so much as it will be the intensity of his disapproval and the lack of intensity in his support.

The people who like Joe Biden don’t love him, but the people who dislike Joe Biden seem to hate him. I’d be a little nervous to see what happens if the GOP nominates someone who is relatively inoffensive in 2024. That being said, I’m not sure such a Republican even exists these days, so who knows. Maybe Joe’s intense support will tick up when voters see who the alternative could be.

I probably expect it to tick back up if the economy improves and he passes more legislation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still a 304 blue wall unless we lose VA and we have VBM and Early voting


NH and NV are gonna come back Dem, the question is the House

Biden Approvals are very close to 50/45 like he had on Election night, it's always been 304 except when Biden passed the  1400 stimulus checks and he was 59

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden polls will be back to 53% next yr anyways

[wbrocks67]

Rebound among RMG Research

Sept 10-11 (changes from Sept 2-5)
47% approve (+5)
48% disapprove (-4)

https://scottrasmussen.com/biden-job-approval-rebounds-following-speech-47-approve-48-disapprove/

[Roll Roons]

Rebound among RMG Research

Sept 10-11 (changes from Sept 2-5)
47% approve (+5)
48% disapprove (-4)

https://scottrasmussen.com/biden-job-approval-rebounds-following-speech-47-approve-48-disapprove/

Seems like the Afghanistan news cycle is largely over, so not surprised.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is still a 304 map scenario be side if you look at Biden Approvals from 2020 and look at them now its 50/45, it's been like this the whole Election, except when Biden passed out 1400 stimulus checks

[Sir Mohamed]

Rebound among RMG Research

Sept 10-11 (changes from Sept 2-5)
47% approve (+5)
48% disapprove (-4)

https://scottrasmussen.com/biden-job-approval-rebounds-following-speech-47-approve-48-disapprove/

Seems like the Afghanistan news cycle is largely over, so not surprised.

Yup, this was never going to last very long, especially in the newscycle we live in these days. That said, Biden's honeymoon is for sure over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have a yr before the Midterms too

Don't forget DeSantis and Josh Mandel in OH and FL are at 41% that means if Biden improves to 50% or greater those are winnable seats

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Rebound among RMG Research

Sept 10-11 (changes from Sept 2-5)
47% approve (+5)
48% disapprove (-4)

https://scottrasmussen.com/biden-job-approval-rebounds-following-speech-47-approve-48-disapprove/

Seems like the Afghanistan news cycle is largely over, so not surprised.

Yup, this was never going to last very long, especially in the newscycle we live in these days. That said, Biden's honeymoon is for sure over.

Which bothers me immensely because Americans overwhelming support withdrawal and honestly, getting that damn many people out that fast with all of 12 causalities is about the best it could have gone.

But the media just repeated how bad it was and it seems to have worked.

[Person Man]

We are now almost back above water despite all of the negative news covfefe!

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO (September 11-13)
49% approve
45% disapprove

51/46 favorability too.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/09/13125507/2109049_crosstabs_POLITICO_Adults_v2_SH-1.pdf

---

Morning Consult Political Intelligence Tracking (Sept 10-12)
48% approve
49% disapprove

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1437471348935307279

[pbrower2a]

Effects of the Afghanistan withdrawal upon approval ratings of the President are apparently transitory. Other things, like COVID-19, will matter more. COVID-19 really is killing Americans in large numbers, and culpability obviously lies more heavily with GOP pols. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The test is gonna come quickly in VA, if D's win VA we cement the blue wall, of we lose it another 2014 cycle can be underway

Biden should be criticized, he stopped the 300 and UBI payments and he allowed the Taliban back in control.  


But they're asking for more money for Act blue, I am not gonna donate until Biden polls get back to 50%


Biden was at 59% when 1400 checks were issued and vaccines were in arms

[Podgy the Bear]

COVID-19 and its related effects (including the economy) is now the predominant issue and how the Biden presidency will be perceived in both the political and historical fronts.  

His current approval rating is based on the following:

1) Afghanistan is receding from the public view--bringing back some of the Democratic support lost.
2) Focus is on COVID-19 once again.  And the general Republican response is turning off the swing voter.
3) The 47 percent that supported Trump in 2020 will never come on board.  It will take time for the base to slowly drop off.   It's a war of attrition, but it's a war that can be won.

[Lief 🗽]

Nice to see Americans rally behind President Biden’s War on the Unvaccinateds.

[NotSoLucky]

If he can't deliver on the PRO Act or with infrastructure, his approval will sink among Blue Collar voters. And if he doesn't deliver on HR1 or John Lewis, then his approval will sink among urban Progressives. The Afghan pull out cost him a lot of the "never Trump" suburban republican support, and his implementation of a vaccine mandate cut into his already very low approval rating among Republican Trump supporters.

In other words, his 2024 prospects aren't looking good. The only thing that could help him rebound is if Trump ran in 2024, as Trump's 2016 run did give Obama a boost in his approval, but even then I don't think that would necessarily translate into a win :/

Nice to see Americans rally behind President Biden’s War on the Unvaccinateds.

I think this might be a but crazy, but I think it might be a better strategy if the government payed people to take the vaccine, or some other monetary incentive? I don't know if this has been tried statewide yet.

[Roll Roons]

If he can't deliver on the PRO Act or with infrastructure, his approval will sink among Blue Collar voters. And if he doesn't deliver on HR1 or John Lewis, then his approval will sink among urban Progressives. The Afghan pull out cost him a lot of the "never Trump" suburban republican support, and his implementation of a vaccine mandate cut into his already very low approval rating among Republican Trump supporters.

In other words, his 2024 prospects aren't looking good. The only thing that could help him rebound is if Trump ran in 2024, as Trump's 2016 run did give Obama a boost in his approval, but even then I don't think that would necessarily translate into a win :/

Nice to see Americans rally behind President Biden’s War on the Unvaccinateds.

I think this might be a but crazy, but I think it might be a better strategy if the government payed people to take the vaccine, or some other monetary incentive? I don't know if this has been tried statewide yet.

Those kinds of incentives have been tried at the state level. At some point, carrots can only do so much and you need to use a stick.

[President Johnson]

We are now almost back above water despite all of the negative news covfefe!

Could also be a small 9/11 rally around the flag bump in combination with the Afghanistan debacle fading away in the news.