2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hammy]

TX is mirroring 2018. 2-3 point Trump win
NC looks good for Biden

Biden will win but our dreams of a 400+ EV win are no more alas

Biden's not winning North Carolina.

Dude, we get the point, you get to be happy that everyone is as miserable as you. You don't need to give the same reply to literally every poster on the board, let us actually discuss the election.

[Hammy]

Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

[Hammy]

Why are the remaining states so slow to count right now?  And is there any timeframe on when they’ll resume?

PA has laws that prevent immediate counting or processing of early/mail votes, not sure about Michigan.

[Hammy]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

You had Michigan going R with Pennsylvania going D, which I said would never happen--and it didn't.

[Hammy]

Glad to see Trump fighting!

We know, you've made it abundantly clear you're an enemy of democracy.

[Hammy]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

Forumlurker's map has fallen

[Hammy]

CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

Biden needs 2/3. If he only gets 1/3 the final margin wouldn't change because those remaining ballots have to go somewhere.

[Hammy]

Even if Philly has "only" 170k votes left, that's probably enough for at least a 140k lead for Biden which would reduce Trump's margin to about 26k. Plenty left elsewhere to erase that. Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Philly, Allegheny, Bucks, Lehigh combined net about 170k for Biden by my calcs. Biden probably gains around 70k from the rest of the state

So you're thinking 75k Biden margin by the final count?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

Of course Biden is favored to win, he's literally stealing the election now.

Yes, Republicans are stealing the election for Biden. Big brain moment here

[Hammy]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

[Hammy]

[snip]

So Biden wins as long as the plots stay at or above the line?

[Hammy]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

Yes, yes, we know, you need to project to make yourself feel better about voting for Trump.

[Hammy]

GA - Biden down by 12,764 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,512 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,638 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 108,367 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,502 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 334,500 of them - (59.7%)

That "needs to win" percentage looks like it's dropping a good amount from yesterday.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/JayCaruso/status/1324440241642622978

So a hard campaign to make sure Republicans don't use mail voting is leading to little to no Republican mail votes? Shocking!

[Hammy]

18,937 votes to be counted, via GA SoS through CNN.

The big question is will his lead be enough to prevent being overwhelmed when the military ballots come in (which is about 9k) once the current ballots are counted

[Hammy]

When will the race be called?

Probably tomorrow

[Hammy]

I do have to wonder if the lack of retracting is a pride thing.  It does appear so at Fox, as they're already wrong.  They said Trump was only getting 45% of the remaining vote (last night) which is obviously false.

There's a bunch of different places that remaining votes are outstanding so it still may not be that far off in the end.

[Hammy]

Kinda want Trump to chill out because this might hurt his 2024 prospects, on the other hand I feel there is plenty of things that can be exposed in our voting system.  Also Trump has already proved he can go full moronic idiot mode and it doesn't matter.

Do you mind me asking why you’d like to see him run again/support his run again?

He almost won in this terrible environment, he would win in 2024 easily.

If Trump loses he's not going to win in 2024--the party will drop him like a hot plate and next time he won't have 18 candidates to divide the anti-Trump vote--if anything there will be newcomers that will divide his.

[Hammy]

Really hope some people don't start with the whole "Joe Biden isn't my President" BS.  

Joe Biden IS your President
Donald Trump was your President
Barack Obama was your President

I wish them all the best.  I will support Joe Biden as he begins his term and hope he does well even though I don't think its the best direction at all.

If more Republicans had your mindset this country would be a lot better place.

[Hammy]

Buzz is fine, I've gained tons of respect for Jessica.

Woodbury and SN are scum, and Del Tachi is annoying with nonsensical takes.

Del Tachi is actually kind of interesting to read because he puts a lot of thought and logic into his posts and often still comes to the wrong conclusion with it.

I willy say sorely regret lobbying for SN's return, he's gone full reality denialism during his absence.

[Hammy]

Imagine calling SN a hack after what has been posted on the forum the last 8 months about this election.  The hypocrisy is strong.  Y'all thought Biden was about to win 413 EV, so GTFO!

People aren't calling him a hack because he thought his party would win. They're calling him a hack because he's calling for a coup that will destroy the United States. He and anyone who supports that is a terrorist as repulsive and evil as the men behind 9-11. He's a disgusting, pathetic, awful person.

WTF are you talking about? Saying Trump has a chance is calling for a cout? It's not over yet.

You literally want the Supreme Court to overturn legal votes. That's a coup.

Woodbury's the one actually openly advocating it.

[Hammy]

What is the status in the house? Is the majority secure for democrats?

As far as I know they've finished counting for the day, the rest won't likely get counted until tomorrow.

[Hammy]

Really sucks we couldn't have all the states called by page 538

[Hammy]

Someone tell me why PA is so close when it was supposed to be a comfortable Biden win...

They have sloths counting votes and Steve Kornacki is dooming about provisional ballots possibly being heavily GOP.

I think people are misrepresenting what Kornacki said. He said provisional ballots from republican areas are favorable to Trump. Thats unlike mail in ballots, which have been favorable to Biden in both republican and democratic areas. With that being the, provisional ballots from dem areas would favor democrats and that's where the majority of them are.

Okay, so the reason for the lack of a call in PA is back to "either ratings or cowardice".

Probably both, really. They don't want to offend Trumpers since reality is now subject to opinion, and they want to keep their ratings as this is a big FIND OUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT! story for news outlets

[Hammy]

So when will this thing be called?

I don't think they'll call it before the electoral votes are cast. Media's going to milk this as much as they can because Trump and this election in general have been a ratings boon.