Morning Consult: Biden +6% post-convention (was +10%)
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  Morning Consult: Biden +6% post-convention (was +10%) 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden +6% post-convention (was +10%)  (Read 5168 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 29, 2020, 11:17:08 AM »
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2020, 11:18:21 AM »
Winning by six would still be a decisive victory. Also, given how stable this race has been, I'm sure we'll be back at +10 a week or two from now.
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Rand
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2020, 11:19:00 AM »
Game over Dems.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2020, 11:20:53 AM »
So Trump is doing 10 points worse this year than he was at this point in the previous cycle.
Pretty consistent with the polls we’ve been seeing across the country all summer showing huge movement toward Biden compared to 2016.
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Woody
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM »
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2020, 11:22:58 AM »
Decent bounce for Trump. Funny he still can’t get Biden below 50. Trump improved with white folks, but also lost ground with people of color. Biden’s favorability is still better than Trump’s at around even.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2020, 11:23:14 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.
It's literally just one poll. Also, a 6% point lead is still a decisive victory for Biden lol.

Imagine celebrating your candidate still being down by a decent margin just because you want to "own the libs".
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2020, 11:23:25 AM »
A "nearly having" a 10 point lead to 6 is not quite that (it's 20 percent off half), but that's fine.

We expected a bounce and it happened.  But not very big and the margin is likely to stay this way or move back to Biden as the election gets closer.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2020, 11:23:32 AM »
Even with a convention bump, Biden is still at 50? Says a lot about the state of the race.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2020, 11:25:36 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

lmao still losing by 6 right after a convention, go off sis!
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2020, 11:26:11 AM »
Morning Consult is probably the least bouncy pollster out there, so this is a decent convention bump for Trump. He's still six points behind though, and these bumps tend to fade.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2020, 11:26:32 AM »
That's why early voting is imperative for Ds chance which start next week in NC, Biden will get a cushion, before the same day voters vote for Trump.
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Buzz
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2020, 11:26:38 AM »
Maga bump.  Trumpmentum all the way to 11/3
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2020, 11:28:14 AM »
RIP Biden, RIP America.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2020, 11:28:33 AM »
Reminder.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2020, 11:29:51 AM »
This poll is also a one day poll. One day polls aren't the best at all. Even with this poll, Biden still is at 50%.

Furthermore, the USC poll still shows Biden leading Trump by a big margin (54-40). I'll wait for more than one poll to truly see if Trump actually has gotten a decent RNC bump.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2020, 11:31:19 AM »
Morning Consult has been hovering between +5 and +10 for a while. This is, if anything, a reversion to the mean.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2020, 11:32:09 AM »
A pretty decent poll for Trump and it only moves the 538 polling average by 0.2 points.

Polling gurus? Help?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2020, 11:32:45 AM »
I want to see other polls to determine if there is a bump or not.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2020, 11:33:24 AM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on August 29, 2020, 11:32:45 AM
I want to see other polls to determine if there is a bump or not.

Thank you for being sensible!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2020, 11:39:15 AM »
It's going to end up being pretty close again. The thing that gives me some hope is that Trump is the incumbent this time at least.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2020, 11:42:02 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 29, 2020, 11:39:15 AM
It's going to end up being pretty close again.

No, it won't.
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Storebought
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2020, 11:44:53 AM »
The only 'good' thing is that the number of undecided is less than half of what it was in 2016.

The very bad thing is that the media can now restart its horserace narrative from now to November, which always benefits the GOP.
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2020, 11:56:18 AM »
Interesting analysis here:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1299750033340993536?s=21
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WD
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« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2020, 12:03:13 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2020, 02:06:47 PM by Western Democrat »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

Imagine bragging about being down 6. That’s how screwed Trump is.
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