2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I really hope Arizona goes Dem for the symbolic purpose of Trump demeaning McCain and Hispanics backfiring.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Re: The Pima Drop.

Is that all the remaining votes in Pima, or just the earlier ones, that were always more likely to be favorable to Trump?

My understanding of Arizona is that the main "gap" is between earlier-counted votes and later-counted votes, where earlier-counted votes are expected to be friendlier to Trump than later-counted votes.  Meaning that the first drop from X county would be good for Trump, but the second drop would be worse.

So if that's the first drop from Pima, and Trump only "stayed on track", then that's good for Biden.  But if that was all the Pima votes, then it's a good result for Trump.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Unless Biden takes an ACTUAL lead (and not a theoretical media one) in Pennsylvania, this race is far from over.

Yeah, it sure is slow. Still a lot of conjecture from Dems, I'm not at all convinced Biden has this.

I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Biden loses PA but wins Eerie county.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

Carrying on the Forsyth County tradition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Al Gross in now saying he thinks he will win, not sure if he actually believes that though

He's not really outperforming Biden, so prolly not.

[musicblind]

Al Gross in now saying he thinks he will win, not sure if he actually believes that though

If only that were true... if only.

[rhg2052]

PA Margin: 58,286

[Horus]

Unless Biden takes an ACTUAL lead (and not a theoretical media one) in Pennsylvania, this race is far from over.

Yeah, it sure is slow. Still a lot of conjecture from Dems, I'm not at all convinced Biden has this.

I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Biden loses PA but wins Eerie county.

Quite a number of hard to imagine scenarios have occurred these past four years.

[wbrocks67]

CNN reporting Bucks County just dropped 8K votes: Biden 5837, Trump 2863.

67-33. Biden only needed to get 60%.

At least 12K votes still out in Bucks, possibly up to 17K, if the 20-25K estimate was true

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324519394530136064

wait so was that Pima drop good for Trump so far?

The Pima drop was meh for Trump, which is better than devastating for Trump as it had the potential to be. But it just means we need to see more votes.

[philly09]

CNN reporting Bucks County just dropped 8K votes: Biden 5837, Trump 2863.

Biden is absolutely killing it in Bucks County. The most GOP friendly county and he's running away with it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Suburban Philly coming in strong for Biden now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A few minor updates including AZ and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 57,844 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~405,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 174,100 of them - (42.9%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 52,286 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~382,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~220,100 of them - (57.6%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump made a bit of ground in Arizona, but in the next couple of GA updates, it will most likely show Biden in the lead.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of Pittsburgh mail-in votes still to come for PA that have their counting delayed.

Trump is trying to stop counting of votes in Philadelphia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Delco: Biden 3272, Trump 807 (per CNN)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump +58K in PA.

[Tekken_Guy]

When will the race be called?

[soundchaser]

When will the race be called?

Basically as soon as Biden takes the lead in PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When will the race be called?

If PA keeps reporting at this pace, then sometime tonight.

[Figueira]

Unless Biden takes an ACTUAL lead (and not a theoretical media one) in Pennsylvania, this race is far from over.

Yeah, it sure is slow. Still a lot of conjecture from Dems, I'm not at all convinced Biden has this.

I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Biden loses PA but wins Eerie county.

Yeah, that would really be eerie.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am, but that's an unsafe call

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

[rhg2052]

A few minor updates including AZ and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 57,844 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~405,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 174,100 of them - (42.9%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 52,286 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~382,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~220,100 of them - (57.6%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump made a bit of ground in Arizona, but in the next couple of GA updates, it will most likely show Biden in the lead.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of Pittsburgh mail-in votes still to come for PA that have their counting delayed.

Thank you for your updates!!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

And if it’s NV and AZ gets uncalled - then we’re back to PA and GA again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

In all honestly, no matter who finishes ahead in GA, we need to wait for military ballots and then it'll go to a recount, not that it will change the overall result of the election nationwide

[wbrocks67]

Delco: Biden 3272, Trump 807 (per CNN)

80-20, way more than what he needs