2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Badger]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Not a give-in. Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then we'll have 2 Special Elections in Georgia and if both Dems win then the Senate goes to the Democrats.

Probably unrealistic, but is there a chance that late absentee ballots, plus RCV in Maine, could save Cunningham and / or Gideon?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Yes, certainly. But Democrats will have four years to think about these implications. Right now, the priority is to get rid of Trump and his sycophants. Little else matters.

[Alben Barkley]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

WTF are you talking about? What happened to Trump in Wisconsin is imminently going to happen to him in Michigan but worse.

He doesn’t know. He never has. He was desperately wanting the chance to be smug and rub it in people’s faces because he’s one of those doomers who gets off on human misery. And he’s not quite ready to give that up yet, math be damned.

[Hammy]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

You had Michigan going R with Pennsylvania going D, which I said would never happen--and it didn't.

[BlueSwan]

If Biden wins Wisconsin by something like the current margin, that would still be a WHOPPING 8 point polling miss.

[soundchaser]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Not a give-in. Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then we'll have 2 Special Elections in Georgia and if both Dems win then the Senate goes to the Democrats.

Probably unrealistic, but is there a chance that late absentee ballots, plus RCV in Maine, could save Cunningham and / or Gideon?

Seems very unlikely, sadly. Cunningham is underperforming Biden by about a point, and Collins is up by 7.

[Badger]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

Really depends on his Presidency. If it falters, he shouldn't run for a second term and then ideally some progressives will run against Kamala for the nomination.

So Biden hasn't even entirely been confirmed as the winner yet, and already doomers are talking about throwing him out for a better candidate in 2024.

LOLOL! Never change, Democrats.

[Bojack Horseman]

Just woke up. Where were we?

[Badger]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

WTF are you talking about? What happened to Trump in Wisconsin is imminently going to happen to him in Michigan but worse.

He doesn’t know. He never has. He was desperately wanting the chance to be smug and rub it in people’s faces because he’s one of those doomers who gets off on human misery. And he’s not quite ready to give that up yet, math be damned.

No accolades for him.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323941663908179969?s=20

Down by 200k votes in MI.

[VBM]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

Really depends on his Presidency. If it falters, he shouldn't run for a second term and then ideally some progressives will run against Kamala for the nomination.

So Biden hasn't even entirely been confirmed as the winner yet, and already Jumer's are talking about throwing him out for a better candidate in 2024.

LOL LOL! Never change, Democrats.

Maybe you should learn the meaning of the word “assuming”

[Hope For A New Era]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Not a give-in. Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then we'll have 2 Special Elections in Georgia and if both Dems win then the Senate goes to the Democrats.

Probably unrealistic, but is there a chance that late absentee ballots, plus RCV in Maine, could save Cunningham and / or Gideon?

Seems very unlikely, sadly. Cunningham is underperforming Biden by about a point, and Collins is up by 7.

I think Collins was up by 12 a while ago. We’ll see what happens. Fingers crossed.

[politics_king]

Just woke up. Where were we?

Biden is making a comeback and Trump is claiming fraud. Lawsuits are coming.

[NOVA Green]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

Well we can start with the map of NC...



Naturally not to difficult to reverse engineer and see where the remaining ballots are outstanding.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[Meclazine for Israel]

Wisconsin holding steady for Biden. Biden still winning 60% of the votes in MI coming in as necessary to win the state. Biden is now less than 200,000 behind Trump in Michigan and the gap is dropping at the required rate based on observation.

WI - Biden up by 7,331 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~397,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 199,514 (80% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 667,500 of them. (58.8%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. MI is the clear state where Biden is tracking well to take the Presidency.

If Biden wins NV, WI and MI, he will get 272 EC votes.

[Badger]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

Really depends on his Presidency. If it falters, he shouldn't run for a second term and then ideally some progressives will run against Kamala for the nomination.

So Biden hasn't even entirely been confirmed as the winner yet, and already Jumer's are talking about throwing him out for a better candidate in 2024.

LOL LOL! Never change, Democrats.

Maybe you should learn the meaning of the word “assuming”

I think I made it rather clear that Biden hasn't even officially won yet, but that was hardly the point of either your post or mine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323940482767093760

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

Well we can start with the map of NC...

Snippy-Snip!

Naturally not to difficult to reverse engineer and see where the remaining ballots are outstanding.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Hey NOVA: how were things in Oregon? Any surprises?

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin holding steady for Biden. Biden still winning 60% of the votes in MI coming in as necessary to win the state. Biden is now less than 200,000 behind Trump.

WI - Biden up by 7,331 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~397,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 199,514 (80% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 667,500 of them. (58.8%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. MI is the clear state where Biden is tracking well to take the Presidency.

If Biden wins NV, WI and MI, he will get 272 EC votes.

What's your source for uncounted ballots ?

[BlueSwan]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Not a give-in. Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then we'll have 2 Special Elections in Georgia and if both Dems win then the Senate goes to the Democrats.

Probably unrealistic, but is there a chance that late absentee ballots, plus RCV in Maine, could save Cunningham and / or Gideon?

Cunningham, I would say no, given that he is doing worse than Biden and Biden is a really long shot to win in NC at this point.

Gideon, I really have no idea. Plenty of votes to count still.

[Splash]

Bruh

https://twitter.com/traffictom8/status/1323938426140479489

[politics_king]

Wisconsin holding steady for Biden. Biden still winning 60% of the votes in MI coming in as necessary to win the state. Biden is now less than 200,000 behind Trump in Michigan and the gap is dropping at the required rate based on observation.

WI - Biden up by 7,331 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~397,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 199,514 (80% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 667,500 of them. (58.8%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. MI is the clear state where Biden is tracking well to take the Presidency.

If Biden wins NV, WI and MI, he will get 272 EC votes.

We need you with the Magic Wall my friend. Outstanding work. Appreciate it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

I believe, that days before the election Nate Silver said that late mail ballots will be way more less D than early mail ballots. Though, I don't know if it is applicable to NV (or other states).


EDIT: ok. According to Nates it is likely a good news for Biden.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323940482767093760

[soundchaser]

Bruh

https://twitter.com/traffictom8/status/1323938426140479489

Ok, time for bed then. I’ve only been up...24 hours?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323941823929352194