2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

Is there any way Trump can retake the lead in Wisconsin given what's left?

[soundchaser]

Is there any way Trump can retake the lead in Wisconsin given what's left?

Theoretically, yes. Practically, no.

[n1240]

Results aren't final in Detroit yet and a decent chunk of these aren't included in Wayne County reports but this is what the vote is like right now there:

Biden 201841
Trump 10978

Unfortunately it is hard to parse together what is and what isn't included in the Wayne County result to get a better estimate of Biden's standing there, but would still think he can reach Clinton's raw margin from 2016.

[Badger]

Uncle Joe finally over 50% nationally. Overall lead of 2,2 million votes and counting.

God Almighty do we need to Chuck the Electoral College. None of this nail-biting would be necessary. Let democracy rule!

[Pick Up the Phone]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323938308183916545

[Platypus]

We had an issue with the printer on one of our machines too...I was stuck at the precinct for an extra hour because I had to sign *one* receipt that wouldn’t print.

America’s election infrastructure remains terrible.

Why are absentee ballots being the last to be counted despite being the first to be received?

It looks incredibly suspicious that votes are suddenly materializing but only once they already knew what Trumps lead was from the people who turned up in person to vote.

Oh god this is gonna be the conspiracy theory isn’t it?

I personally don't like conspiracy theories and I am not saying that anything untoward has happened, but I would like something who knows about this sort of thing to explain.

I've just never seen a situation where one candidate is clearly ahead in so many states, only for that lead to suddenly diminish and in some cases disappear just with the processing of 'one batch' of votes.

That's literally what just happened in Florida and North Carolina earlier in reverse. People were predicting this phenomena all week.

Yes but in Florida the vote changed over the course of an hour or two.

In Wisconsin Trump was ahead by 4%. Within the space of a few minutes this changed to Biden up by 0.3%.

Never seen that once in the course of decades of elections.

When was the last time you saw an election with a city of a million people with a huge absentee and mail vote update those votes at the same time?

(Never)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We had an issue with the printer on one of our machines too...I was stuck at the precinct for an extra hour because I had to sign *one* receipt that wouldn’t print.

America’s election infrastructure remains terrible.

Why are absentee ballots being the last to be counted despite being the first to be received?

It looks incredibly suspicious that votes are suddenly materializing but only once they already knew what Trumps lead was from the people who turned up in person to vote.

Oh god this is gonna be the conspiracy theory isn’t it?

I personally don't like conspiracy theories and I am not saying that anything untoward has happened, but I would like something who knows about this sort of thing to explain.

I've just never seen a situation where one candidate is clearly ahead in so many states, only for that lead to suddenly diminish and in some cases disappear just with the processing of 'one batch' of votes.

That's literally what just happened in Florida and North Carolina earlier in reverse. People were predicting this phenomena all week.

Yes but in Florida the vote changed over the course of an hour or two.

In Wisconsin Trump was ahead by 4%. Within the space of a few minutes this changed to Biden up by 0.3%.

Never seen that once in the course of decades of elections.

Remember that this isn't a normal election cycle.  Everything is out of order.  

I get (but don't agree with) your concerns.  And I was personally hoping for a different scenario other than Trump being up but losing his lead to a surge of absentee ballots.  

Having said that, this thing is not over.  Let's see what the coming hours bring.  

[President Johnson]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

[It’s so Joever]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

[BlueSwan]

It will be immensely frustrating if Biden clinches in WI and MI only to lose in NV.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939478403076096

[VBM]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

[politics_king]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

But it will still be a weak mandate, with the senate staying Republican. That's very disappointing, especially after polls got our hopes high for a landslide and trifecta.

Not a give-in. Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then we'll have 2 Special Elections in Georgia and if both Dems win then the Senate goes to the Democrats.

[DaleCooper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

[Alben Barkley]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

The math isn’t on your side.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

GOP needs to reconnect with the suburbs, Dems need to figure out what the hell went wrong for them in SoFla and if the state is as viable a target as it once was.  

And pollsters need to rework...well, lots of things. 

[gf20202]

As I warned, Michigan will vote red.

WTF are you talking about? What happened to Trump in Wisconsin is imminently going to happen to him in Michigan but worse.

[VBM]

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939478403076096

Nov 5? Wtf? Why can’t they just count the rest of the ballots today?

[politics_king]

So what’s the strategy in 2024, assuming a narrow Biden win? Should we ditch Biden/Kamala and run someone that will give us more support among Latinos and drive out the base more?

Really depends on his Presidency. If it falters, he shouldn't run for a second term and then ideally some progressives will run against Kamala for the nomination.

[Alben Barkley]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

Probably yeah. Considering he is leading as it is, I don’t see any way he can lose.

[BlueSwan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

If it was a certainty, I think Foxnews would have called it as they have been fairly aggressive in calling states, unlike CNN.

Too much is uncertain in all of the remaining states to make any calls.

[Storr]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

Yes, so far mail in ballots have heavily trended Democratic, there's no indication that what's left should be radically different.
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

[Splash]

Trump down to a 51-47 lead in Michigan after an update from Kent County (Grand Rapids). Biden is going to win Kent County and he did really well (for a Democrat) in Ottawa County too. I think he actually beat Whitmer's percentage there.

[Zanas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

Yes, but "certainty" and "comfortable" are two words that have lost meaning forever for us left-leaning election geeks after tonight...