Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

In other news, the lame duck Congress will likely pass another Ukraine funding bill to fund the next year's fight. The $37 billion dollar number will probably go up.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592618497678385154

[Orwell]

FWIW Article V doesn't mean war with Russia it just means "retaliation"

[Middle-aged Europe]

FWIW Article V doesn't mean war with Russia it just means "retaliation"

If we go by the treaty text now it means taking action "to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area", "including the use of armed force".

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1592654917898207234

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1592658729874644994

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1592658729874644994

Yea so... we messed up, promise.

[MasterJedi]

Possibly Polish army being sent to Ukraine and join the war? Russia would not be happy about that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pro UA OSINT reporting it is a UA S300 missile, likely went off course.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712

Even if their model ID is correct (they've got a good eye for these things), I don't see how they can be completely sure that was a UA missile, given Russian captures earlier in the war. Russia has been using surplus S-300 missiles in ground attack mode as part of the barrages.

In any case, the earlier reports stated missiles (plural) crossed into Poland, so I still wouldn't draw conclusions yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FWIW Article V doesn't mean war with Russia it just means "retaliation"

If we go by the treaty text now it means taking action "to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area", "including the use of armed force".

Basically it's a NATO equivalent of the 2002 authorization Congress gave Bush. I.e. the right to use armed force if necessary. It does not inherently mean armed force will be used.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just hearing about this after my hospital shift today. 

All my thoughts with those affected, how awful. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It will likely be difficult to figure out who did this, but we now are closer than ever to having a casus belli if, god forbid, we do have to go to war with Russia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador and claimed a Russian-made* missile fell and killed two people: https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

It is interesting they only mention one Russian missile. If the original claim of two missiles entering Poland was true, perhaps the other one was a Ukrainian AD missile?

*I assume they do not mean a Soviet Russian missile inherited by Ukraine, but there's at least a little room for doubt here.

[Woody]

Pro UA OSINT reporting it is a UA S300 missile, likely went off course.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712

Even if their model ID is correct (they've got a good eye for these things), I don't see how they can be completely sure that was a UA missile, given Russian captures earlier in the war. Russia has been using surplus S-300 missiles in ground attack mode as part of the barrages.

In any case, the earlier reports stated missiles (plural) crossed into Poland, so I still wouldn't draw conclusions yet.

I think they are concluding this on the S300's range & distance from RU / Occupied territory. Leaving the other option of it being fired from UA.

[Beet]

So NATO has to declare war on Ukraine now?

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1592654917898207234

OMG LOL

Interesting wording, "Russian-made".. instead of just Russian.

Yeah bro, I don't think there is any doubt Soviet produced S-300s are Russian-made.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pro UA OSINT reporting it is a UA S300 missile, likely went off course.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712

Even if their model ID is correct (they've got a good eye for these things), I don't see how they can be completely sure that was a UA missile, given Russian captures earlier in the war. Russia has been using surplus S-300 missiles in ground attack mode as part of the barrages.

In any case, the earlier reports stated missiles (plural) crossed into Poland, so I still wouldn't draw conclusions yet.

I think they are basing this on the S300's range & distance from RU / Occupied territory.

Could have been fired from Belarus, as reported in previous missile barrages.

[Orwell]

Looks like another false flag to employ NATO imperialism in the world, what's next the US invading Russia because they have WMDs? Or are getting Yellowcake? LOL

[Woody]

At this point, just admit it was an accident and move on.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1592667708990328832

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1592654917898207234

OMG LOL

Interesting wording, "Russian-made".. instead of just Russian.

Yeah bro, I don't think there is any doubt Soviet produced S-300s are Russian-made.

Ukraine produced S-300 missiles until 1997 (and prior to 1991, as part of the USSR).

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this point, just admit it was an accident and move on.

"Don't wait for the results of the investigation. Don't even conduct an investigation. Just cover it up."

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264?cxt=HHwWgMDQmfj...
“Perfidious Albion strikes again”

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264?cxt=HHwWgMDQmfj...
“Perfidious Albion strikes again”

Why does this give us the opposite impression of what happened?

[HillGoose]

So NATO has to declare war on Ukraine now?

hell yeah!!!

let's roll!

time for NATO to kick some commie ass!

[Person Man]

So NATO has to declare war on Ukraine now?

hell yeah!!!

let's roll!

time for NATO to kick some commie ass!

Christmas will be interesting.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1592666872792875008