Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also looks like in Alberta much like on lockdowns strong urban/rural divide.  Most Calgary and Edmonton ones voted yea, but all but two rural voted nay and of those first Edmonton-Wetaskiwin is mixed while Banff-Airdrie includes Banff, Canmore, and Lake Louise which are quite socially progressive as well as many wealthy educated types who love just outside the city of Calgary so very right wing fiscally, but socially moderate. 

That's exactly it, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin and the Airdrie part of Banff-Airdrie are very suburban, and the Banff/Canmore parts are basically communist by rural Alberta standards.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's certainly not a good look for the CPC that more than half of their caucus voted against banning conversion therapy torture. Just last week they were attacking the Liberals from the left and calling for an end to the blood ban for gay men, and now this...way to ruin any credibility you had

[mileslunn]

Also looks like in Alberta much like on lockdowns strong urban/rural divide.  Most Calgary and Edmonton ones voted yea, but all but two rural voted nay and of those first Edmonton-Wetaskiwin is mixed while Banff-Airdrie includes Banff, Canmore, and Lake Louise which are quite socially progressive as well as many wealthy educated types who love just outside the city of Calgary so very right wing fiscally, but socially moderate. 

That's exactly it, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin and the Airdrie part of Banff-Airdrie are very suburban, and the Banff/Canmore parts are basically communist by rural Alberta standards.

Jasper is too, but makes up a much smaller portion of riding and outvoted by Hinton, Edson, Whitecourt and other very conservative communities.

[mileslunn]

It's certainly not a good look for the CPC that more than half of their caucus voted against banning conversion therapy torture. Just last week they were attacking the Liberals from the left and calling for an end to the blood ban for gay men, and now this...way to ruin any credibility you had

O'Toole should have on this whipped the vote.  Many against it were upset about a certain minor clause and he could have just promised if elected to fix that and argue a bill that bans it even if imperfect is better than nothing and you can always change things if issues emerge, but you not being banned far more harmful.

I think O'Toole gets party has to moderate socially unlike Scheer, but he has lost control of caucus and cannot bring them onside and he needs to do that before party is taken seriously.

[DC Al Fine]

I question how many votes a leader in a weak position can whip, that a majority of his caucus opposes (e.g. conversion therapy, sex selective abortion). The Tories are bleeding on their right too...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I question how many votes a leader in a weak position can whip, that a majority of his caucus opposes (e.g. conversion therapy, sex selective abortion). The Tories are bleeding on their right too...

Exactly, O'Toole is stuck in a real quagmire because anything he says or does about socially conservative issues will only hurt him.

Honestly, I don't think Erin O'Toole has the fight in him. He doesn't have great relations with his caucus or party membership, the CPC's poll numbers are bad (and his personal numbers even worse), and they're bleeding both hardliners and moderates. It's not hard to imagine that the CPC could be in another leadership race by the end of 2021...

[King of Kensington]

Michelle Rempel is defying the leadership line on Canada Day celebrations:

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1408598707059118081

[mileslunn]

Michelle Rempel is defying the leadership line on Canada Day celebrations:

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1408598707059118081

Do you have screenshot for those of us who have been blocked by Rempel?  She blocks a lot even some conservatives.  I got blocked over my disagreement with her on gun laws (I support a ban on handguns and semi-automatics) while I know another conservative who is actually fairly libertarian and got blocked over his opposition to supply management.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Michelle Rempel is defying the leadership line on Canada Day celebrations:

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1408598707059118081

Rempel?

Rempel?

Wow, I didn't have that on my bingo card.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Michelle Rempel is defying the leadership line on Canada Day celebrations:

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1408598707059118081

Do you have screenshot for those of us who have been blocked by Rempel?  She blocks a lot even some conservatives.  I got blocked over my disagreement with her on gun laws (I support a ban on handguns and semi-automatics) while I know another conservative who is actually fairly libertarian and got blocked over his opposition to supply management.

Calgary Herald: Indigenous people call on Calgary to scale back or cancel Canada Day celebrations https://bit.ly/3dex6sz

Michelle Rempel Garner (thread of five, condensed): "And we should listen. Imagine your children ripped from you to be re-educated in the social norms of your colonizer. Imagine your children, ripped from you, dead from tuberculous, away from you, unceremoniously dumped in the ground. Then rethink your reply and retort. I am not here to make you comfortable. I am not comfortable. It is past time we confront this as a nation. Political cost be damned."

[2952-0-0]

A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Seriously, I absolutely did not expect any Conservative MP to take this stance, and certainly not so boldly. Earlier today Erin O'Toole accused Trudeau and Singh of being unpatriotic because of their stance on #CancelCanadaDay, which by the way, I don't think either of them took as bold a stance as Rempel did. In fact, neither of them support the idea which it sounds like MRG is doing.

I wonder if O'Toole's gonna come out and call Rempel unpatriotic too  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

They should condemn the arson but maybe not talk about rebuilding them right away. It would be a little tone deaf to the discourse in Canada right now.

[DC Al Fine]

A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

They should condemn the arson but maybe not talk about rebuilding them right away. It would be a little tone deaf to the discourse in Canada right now.

Ignoring the question of whether the State should provide restitution to victims of crimes it did not commit, suppose we grant that premise: Talking about reconciliation with First Nations in general, while turning around and saying that a particular group of First Nations hate crime victims ought not to be restored feels rather shallow and cheap.

I wonder how reconciled the First Nations parishoners of those churches would feel if they had to do without their place of worship, just so some white politicians didn't have to be perceived as "tone deaf"?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

They should condemn the arson but maybe not talk about rebuilding them right away. It would be a little tone deaf to the discourse in Canada right now.

Ignoring the question of whether the State should provide restitution to victims of crimes it did not commit, suppose we grant that premise: Talking about reconciliation with First Nations in general, while turning around and saying that a particular group of First Nations hate crime victims ought not to be restored feels rather shallow and cheap.

I wonder how reconciled the First Nations parishoners of those churches would feel if they had to do without their place of worship, just so some white politicians didn't have to be perceived as "tone deaf"?

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://thehub.ca/2021-06-24/royce-koop-beware-the-tory-syndrome/

Very interesting take on Tory infighting and how they hold themselves back. Lot of parallels with the British Labour Party as well.

By all accounts, the Liberals are a declining party over the course of Canadian history. Long gone are the days of inevitable Liberal majorities and sweeping the entirety of Quebec, the LPC has an increasingly narrow path to victory these days. The provincial Liberal brand has all but collapsed in the prairies, their future in Ontario and Quebec looks uncertain, and the BC Liberals are effectively successors of the Social Credit movement. And yet, their principal opponents at the federal level consistently struggle to capitalize on it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Strong parallels between the British Tories and Canadian Liberals in all that, too.

[2952-0-0]

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

[mileslunn]

https://thehub.ca/2021-06-24/royce-koop-beware-the-tory-syndrome/

Very interesting take on Tory infighting and how they hold themselves back. Lot of parallels with the British Labour Party as well.

By all accounts, the Liberals are a declining party over the course of Canadian history. Long gone are the days of inevitable Liberal majorities and sweeping the entirety of Quebec, the LPC has an increasingly narrow path to victory these days. The provincial Liberal brand has all but collapsed in the prairies, their future in Ontario and Quebec looks uncertain, and the BC Liberals are effectively successors of the Social Credit movement. And yet, their principal opponents at the federal level consistently struggle to capitalize on it.

I think today problem for federal Tories is they have little in common.  True UK Tories are similar in ideology yet remarkably successful unlike Canadian Tories, however in most Continental European countries, usually right wing populists and moderate conservatives are not under same banner.  PC side takes view Canada is fairly centrist and believes party should focus on winning over swing voters.  Reform wing by contrast believes in running on a dogmatically right wing platform and believes turning out base not persuading people to switch is solution.  You can see almost who comes from which side based on the few free votes they have had.  

I also think bigger problem for Tories is demographics and current political alignment doesn't bode well for them.  Most countries have more favourable demographics for parties on right than Canada does.

Atlantic Canada: On surface is fairly rural and white so should be a Tory stronghold, but relies a lot on federal funding never mind has a strongly communitarian culture so old PCs can win here, but current itineration struggles and probably will continue to until PC wing dominates (if that ever happens).

Quebec:  Has normal split which is why at provincial level, CAQ quite strong.  However right wing parties rarely do well in linguistic minority areas.  Not just in Canada but anywhere.  Popular Party of Spain struggles in Catalonia and Basque country, right of centre ones struggle in Wallonia in Belgium while Tories in Scotland.  So same thing here.  Those two areas 1/3 of country so already Tories at weak start.  Quebec is no longer a Liberal stronghold, but at least they have lock on Anglo vote so head start there.

Ontario: Is a very urbanized province, similar in urbanization to Illinois and New York which are both solid blue states.  So as long you have strong urban/rural splits you will get a 70/30 break in percentage of seats thus struggle for Tories.

Manitoba: Sort of a wash as Winnipeg is 55% of province so makes winning big there tough, but 45% outside city and except Far north, Tories have solid lock on most of that.

Saskatchewan: Their most favourable province demographically and since more rural and whiter than Alberta, that is why it is replacing Alberta as most conservative province.

Alberta: Kenney may have awoken a sleeping giant as I get impression many vote Tory out of habit not ideology.  Certainly demographics of Alberta are not favourable to parties on right.  3rd most urban, 3rd most diverse, youngest province, and most educated.

British Columbia: This is one in last decade that has seen big shift.  A decade ago, BC Liberals provincially and Tories federally dominated Lower Mainland suburbs and Interior while both held seats on Vancouver Island even if trailed in Vancouver proper and Vancouver Island.  Today both still dominate Interior, but Lower Mainland suburbs have mostly swung NDP provincially and Liberal federally while both shut out on Vancouver Island.

So my point is yes division hurting Tories, but also demographics in Canada based on global re-alignment heavily tilt country towards left.  

This is a good blog that talks about global re-alignment https://scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/ even though more focused on American and British politics than Canadian.

[DC Al Fine]

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

Freeland's a practicing Catholic? Interesting.

[2952-0-0]

Raised Ukrainian Catholic, and she did quote from the Book of Jonah at a virtual town hall past December. That means she knows her stuff.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs

Yep, reminiscent of the classic "all first nations are environmentalist stalwarts against the big bad white man's big bad fossil fuels" on the left vs "first nations akhchually love pipelines and oil because it creates jobs and the left keeps them down while pretending to care" on the right.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness.

Trudeau also identifies as a practicing Catholic, and Freeland's pretty "woke" herself, even if a little less obnoxiously so than Trudeau can sometimes be. Is Freeland more vocal about her Catholic beliefs? I haven't really noticed it tbh, then again Canadian politicians very rarely speak about religious beliefs openly so it goes under the radar sometimes

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Strong parallels between the British Tories and Canadian Liberals in all that, too.

Yep, as is often the case too. It's fascinating how many parallels one can draw between CPC and Labour/LPC and Tories, even though ideologically the LPC is more like Labour and the Tories are more like, well, Tories.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

Freeland's a practicing Catholic? Interesting.

Doesn't Trudeau also claim to be a practicing Catholic ?

[mileslunn]

I have wondered if pandemic has exacerbated divide on right.  In normal times people are out socializing with others not small bubble whereas with pandemic and many stuck at home; they are spending more time online and more likely to be in echo chambers.  When socializing with others, it tends to ground you more in reality while if in online echo chambers, much more likely to get a false sense of where public really stands.  For left, its mostly in sense of being super woke and grievances and while Canadians may not care for that; I don't think it angers them way it does people in other countries.  By contrast much of the right wing echo chambers have all kinds of crazy conspiracy theories be it on pandemic, lockdowns, vaccines, or even idea Trudeau is trying to implement a communist dictatorship and all kinds of other crazy stuff.  Once you get sucked into this you lose sense of real world and tough to reason with people who don't deal in reality.  And due to pandemic I believe you are getting a lot more of this than pre-pandemic.

By contrast for right, much of the base who already leans well to right of median voter is being pushed even further right.  And without much interaction with others in person is likely getting a false sense country is much more right wing than it is and people hate Trudeau to same degree they do.  And that O'Toole, Ford, and Kenney are all struggling for being not right wing enough when opposite is largely true.