Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

CAQ MNA Claire Samson (Iberville) expelled from CAQ for sending a donation to the Quebec Conservative Party.

And she is now a PCQ MNA.

Did the provincial Conservatives run candidates in Quebec in the last provincial election?

[Benjamin Frank]

I think Tories focusing too much on Alberta was a mistake.  Yes Alberta has had a rough past few years, but reality is Tories have most of those seats locked up and forming government comes down to gaining in BC, Ontario, and Quebec which under Scheer they made no real efforts at.  O'Toole is trying, but much of party is quite happy to be an Alberta/Saskatchewan party and I think real problem is party comes across as divided between those who want to modernize it and those who want to keep it stuck in the past.  And latter makes up most of its membership even if O'Toole wants to move it in another direction.

The problem for the Conservative Party is that they frequently act like a wholly owned subsidiary of the fossil fuel sector.

[MaxQue]

CAQ MNA Claire Samson (Iberville) expelled from CAQ for sending a donation to the Quebec Conservative Party.

And she is now a PCQ MNA.

Did the provincial Conservatives run candidates in Quebec in the last provincial election?

Yes, 101 out of 125, missing only:
Abitibi-Est (my riding)
Rimouski
Taschereau (downtown Quebec City)
Mégantic, Sherbrooke, St-François (eastern townships)
Bonaventure, Gaspé, Îles-de-la-Madelaine (totally absent in Gaspésie)
Berthier, Joliette (Lanaudière)
Blainville (Montréal northern suburbs)
Mille-Îles (eastern Laval)
Brome-Missisquoi, St-Hyacinthe (Montérégie)
Montarville (wealthy Franco eastern suburb of Montreal)
Marie-Victorin (downtown Longueuil)
Anjou, Bourget, Gouin, Maurice-Richard, Pointe-aux-Trembles (franco Montreal)
Marguerite-Bourgeois, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, St-Henri-Ste-Anne (anglo/immigrant Montreal)
Robert-Baldwin (West Island)

In Claire Sanson's Iberville, they did 1.8%.
They only got more than 1000 in 9 ridings, 5 in Quebec City suburbs, 1 in Beauce, one in Greek Laval (Chomedey) with a Greek candidate and 2 in Anglophone Montreal (Nelligan, D'Arcy-McGee)

[DC Al Fine]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

[King of Kensington]

To what extent is the poor CPC numbers is Alberta:

Right-wing backlash against "eastern Red Tory" leadership

Liberalization of urban Alberta/O'Toole being tainted by closeness to Kenney

[Hatman 🍁]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

[2952-0-0]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

[DC Al Fine]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

That's where I was thinking as well...

To clarify I'm not expecting it to happen en masse, but in many elections there's one or two ridings where someone scrapes in on like 28% of the vote due to unusual circumstances (e.g. Trois Riviere or Sydney-Victoria last time). I don't think it's that crazy to imagine it happening in one riding (still unlikely but not that far out there).

[Benjamin Frank]

In terms of the Conservative Party being in a bubble, I think it says something that their two leading M.Ps on political shows are Michelle Rempel Garner and Pierre Polievre.  Michelle Rempel Garner is a flaky joke and Pierre Polievre is a noxious hyper partisan.

There must be more reasonable people in their caucus who would be far better spokespeople than these two, but these two are, I believe, the two most popular M.Ps of the party's base.

[Benjamin Frank]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

1.I don't think these far right wing parties will gain much support in urban Alberta.

2.Based on the polling, I think it's far more likely -in Edmonton- that the NDP will gain additional seats than the Liberals winning any riding in Alberta.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

To add my two cents on the CPC social issues discussion, I honestly think they could win an election without changing the current line on abortion/LGBT rights etc. The Liberals will always portray the CPC as unhinged right wing lunatics, hell the Martin Liberals suggested that Harper would deploy the forces to the streets of Canada. Harper lost that election, 2004, but less than two years later he won a pretty decent minority.

The CPC's main thing in 2006 was the Accountability Act and just generally fighting corruption. That was the Liberals' weak point, and the CPC put forward a platform that appealed to a broader tent. The Liberals still kept saying that Harper was a religious extremist who would take away people's rights, but Harper actually spoke to the concerns of Canadians this time and the attacks fell flat.

The problem with the CPC right now is they stand for absolutely nothing. They don't have a coherent message for what kind of future they want for Canada, or what solutions they'd propose to Canada's problems, and that's ultimately what people want to hear. The "we won't get vaccines until 2030" saga shows the problem with this current strategy of only reacting to the latest negative news about the Liberals - now we're crushing vaccinations, top of the world in first doses, and the CPC is scrambling for something again.

Scheer had a great opportunity in 2019. Trudeau's main weakness with moderate LPC-CPC swing voters was the perception of corruption that resulted from SNC. Scheer could have made that campaign about increasing accountability, strengthening lobbying rules, or at least being more transparent about the government's dealings with corporations. What kind of policies he would put forward, or whether they would be effective, are completely immaterial as long as people believed that he could succeed where Trudeau failed.

But Scheer didn't do that. The whole campaign was about abolishing the carbon tax, making some tax cuts that were pretty much the same as the Liberals', and not much else. He attacked Trudeau for SNC but didn't show why he would be better.

The point is, when you run an empty campaign that doesn't speak to Canadians, the Liberals' fear mongering about the social conservatives resonates. If the CPC had a platform that people were sympathetic to, they'd be more willing to give Scheer the benefit of the doubt.

It may actually be a blessing in disguise if the LPC wins a majority this year because it will give the CPC four years to recuperate and try to carve out a niche that goes beyond Liberal-hating. The housing crisis is out of control in big cities and if the CPC comes up with a reasonable conservative plan to deal with the crisis, I could see the 905 going blue again. But they need to stand for something, or else the only thing that defines them will continue to be the crazies.

Also if deficits get real bad may offer an opening for Tories.  Main challenge on housing is how to deal with it while sticking to principles.  On tax cuts, I think that will be a tough sell in short term but perhaps could dangle them in final year of mandate after budget balanced.    I think biggest challenge for Tories in 2025 is Freeland or Carney will likely be Liberal leader not Justin Trudeau so won't carry same baggage.  But at same time not sure what their campaign chops are like.  Possible like Jim Prentice or Paul Martin, they may sound good on paper, but flop when on the campaign trail. 

The deficits won't matter politically unless interest rates go up drastically, Canada gets a credit downgrade, inflation gets uncontrollable, etc. If those things look imminent I could easily see the Liberals pivoting in a more fiscally restrained direction, but until/unless we're actually about to hit a crisis point, I don't think deficits are a strong point of argument for the CPC.

I don't know if you're right that Canadians have moved to the left, but the political climate is definitely more favourable to activism right now.

[King of Kensington]

In terms of the Conservative Party being in a bubble, I think it says something that their two leading M.Ps on political shows are Michelle Rempel Garner and Pierre Polievre.  Michelle Rempel Garner is a flaky joke and Pierre Polievre is a noxious hyper partisan.

There must be more reasonable people in their caucus who would be far better spokespeople than these two, but these two are, I believe, the two most popular M.Ps of the party's base.

And that's why the Conservatives won't be winning an election anytime soon.

[mileslunn]

In terms of the Conservative Party being in a bubble, I think it says something that their two leading M.Ps on political shows are Michelle Rempel Garner and Pierre Polievre.  Michelle Rempel Garner is a flaky joke and Pierre Polievre is a noxious hyper partisan.

There must be more reasonable people in their caucus who would be far better spokespeople than these two, but these two are, I believe, the two most popular M.Ps of the party's base.

And that's why the Conservatives won't be winning an election anytime soon.

I think that is true.  I have interacted with a lot of base on twitter and reality is most in base think country is far more conservative than it is.  They hate Trudeau with a passion and forget most people have more nuanced views on him.  Only a minority love him and think he is perfect and only a small minority hate him with a passion.  Most see him like most leaders; has his good side and his flaws.

John Ivison FWIW is claiming Liberals feel they can destroy conservatism for a generation.  While that may be a long time, I think their internals suggest what I am saying that it is in big trouble.  Off course events can change things, but fact Liberals think they can wipe Conservatives off the map shouldn't be discounted.  They have a top notch campaign team and generally good ear to the ground on what Canadians want.

[mileslunn]

On Alberta,

I agree splits likely won't be an issue, probably like last Saskatchewan election where Buffalo Party got in double digits in many rural ridings but Saskatchewan party still won easily while in urban ones was a non-factor.  That being said it is possible in really close urban ones, Maverick and/or PPC might tip the scales, but only if super close.  I think provincially it could be a bigger problem.  Rural Alberta will be a UCP/WIPA battle and only in places like Red Deer or some in Capital region might NDP be strong enough to come up middle.  In Edmonton, NDP is going to sweep city big time.  For Calgary, WIPA probably struggles to crack 10%, but with UCP not being in tank like Edmonton, but not strong like Rural Alberta, that 5-10% could be enough to flip a whole bunch of ridings.

I think real problem is as said elsewhere base becoming more right wing, swing voters more left wing so no longer possible to keep both under one banner.  Whichever one you try to appeal to, anger other side.  While if try to appeal to both, just anger both sides and do even worse.  Better to pick a side and let chips fall where they may.

[Hatman 🍁]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

1.I don't think these far right wing parties will gain much support in urban Alberta.

2.Based on the polling, I think it's far more likely -in Edmonton- that the NDP will gain additional seats than the Liberals winning any riding in Alberta.

Correct. I said " large right wing populist population". The Liberal brand would have to recover in Alberta (but also collapse in Griesbach)  to make those ridings competitive due to vote splits.

[mileslunn]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

1.I don't think these far right wing parties will gain much support in urban Alberta.

2.Based on the polling, I think it's far more likely -in Edmonton- that the NDP will gain additional seats than the Liberals winning any riding in Alberta.

Correct. I said " large right wing populist population". The Liberal brand would have to recover in Alberta (but also collapse in Griesbach)  to make those ridings competitive due to vote splits.

I think Liberals take Edmonton Centre.  Maybe Edmonton-Mill Woods but those are only two I could see them winning in Edmonton.  Ironically I think their chances are better in Calgary since although Tories stronger in Calgary than Edmonton, NDP is much weaker there (often get in single digits) thus smaller splits.  Calgary Centre, Calgary-Confederation and Calgary-Skyview I could all see going Liberals although will be tough as Tories probably get over 40% in all of those but at least unlike Edmonton NDP is weak enough its possible to beat Tories even if in low 40s whereas in Edmonton they need to fall into 30s to beat them.

[beesley]

I think Liberals take Edmonton Centre.  Maybe Edmonton-Mill Woods but those are only two I could see them winning in Edmonton.  Ironically I think their chances are better in Calgary since although Tories stronger in Calgary than Edmonton, NDP is much weaker there (often get in single digits) thus smaller splits.  Calgary Centre, Calgary-Confederation and Calgary-Skyview I could all see going Liberals although will be tough as Tories probably get over 40% in all of those but at least unlike Edmonton NDP is weak enough its possible to beat Tories even if in low 40s whereas in Edmonton they need to fall into 30s to beat them.

Skyview also has the large Asian population a lot of which stayed with the provincial NDP. I don't know the mathematics of it but that suggests to me the Liberals have a chance there if the national circumstances are right.

[mileslunn]

Leger out with provincial premier approval ratings and federal.  Federal now 56% approve to 40% disapprove.  For provincial, Legault and Atlantic premiers already very high so little from for growth.  Horgan now back to sky high after an earlier dip during third wave.  Since most things re-open and cases falling that probably helps.  Ford surprisingly is back to 48% approval vs. 50% disapproval and although probably not quite that high, does seem as third wave recedes his approval is recovering but not to pre third wave levels.  Pallister and Kenney are lowest but still in high 30s.  I would suspect as long as Delta variant doesn't cause problems, all governments of all levels will see approval levels rise as people happy to see life start to come back to normal.  But I think by end of year focus will turn to other issues, thus why Trudeau will go before that happens.

[DC Al Fine]

Protesters, including the local MLA have closed the TransCanada highway in Nova Scotia after the provincial government abruptly cancelled the planned reopening of the New Brunswick border scheduled for tomorrow.

This is the first substantial opposition to COVID restrictions I've seen in the region.

[King of Kensington]

Skyview also has the large Asian population a lot of which stayed with the provincial NDP. I don't know the mathematics of it but that suggests to me the Liberals have a chance there if the national circumstances are right.

It was also the Calgary riding with the lowest CPC vote share in 2019.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Skyview also has the large Asian population a lot of which stayed with the provincial NDP. I don't know the mathematics of it but that suggests to me the Liberals have a chance there if the national circumstances are right.

It was also the Calgary riding with the lowest CPC vote share in 2019.

Northeast Calgary is also a fair bit more NDP provincially than the rest of the city. The biggest AB NDP margin in 2019 in Calgary wasn't in the urban core, but in Calgary-McCall, a predominantly South Asian suburban riding that falls into Skyview federally.

Edit: Oops, that's basically what the beesley said too. Still though it's an interesting part of Calgary to watch politically, especially if Skyview gets more concentrated in the South Asian areas after the next redistribution.

[JoeyOCanada]

Protesters, including the local MLA have closed the TransCanada highway in Nova Scotia after the provincial government abruptly cancelled the planned reopening of the New Brunswick border scheduled for tomorrow.

This is the first substantial opposition to COVID restrictions I've seen in the region.

I think Iain Rankin cost himself the election with this stunt. While NB opening to the rest of Canada is less than desirable at this stage, their reopening plan was published almost a month ago so it's not like Rankin was blindsided by it. There was no reason for him to impose these restrictions literally 9 hours before the bubble opened especially when he knew he was going to impose them last week.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-tells-canadians-parliament-is-dysfunctional-fueling/?cmpid=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Paywalled, but the headline says it all really.

We've seen this before. A leader of a minority government saying "parliament is dysfunctional" is just one step removed from calling an election.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-tells-canadians-parliament-is-dysfunctional-fueling/?cmpid=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Paywalled, but the headline says it all really.

We've seen this before. A leader of a minority government saying "parliament is dysfunctional" is just one step removed from calling an election.

I envy Britain for passing a law requiring a 2/3 majority approval in the Commons before an early election can be called. Maybe a 2/3 majority is excessive, but there should at least be a failed vote of confidence before an election can be called.

Which, in a minority parliament, would lead to the hilarious spectacle of the governing party declaring a lack of confidence in itself, but the opposition parties declaring confidence in the government.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-tells-canadians-parliament-is-dysfunctional-fueling/?cmpid=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Paywalled, but the headline says it all really.

We've seen this before. A leader of a minority government saying "parliament is dysfunctional" is just one step removed from calling an election.

I envy Britain for passing a law requiring a 2/3 majority approval in the Commons before an early election can be called. Maybe a 2/3 majority is excessive, but there should at least be a failed vote of confidence before an election can be called.

Which, in a minority parliament, would lead to the hilarious spectacle of the governing party declaring a lack of confidence in itself, but the opposition parties declaring confidence in the government.

I don't envy their 2/3 law at all. To my understanding, that law is in part what led to the awful months-long gridlock in the House of Commons in 2019 where the Conservative government was effectively a lame duck government, but an agreement to hold an election couldn't be reached for months.

Limiting election calls to non-confidence votes, maybe. But there's also a reasonable argument to be made that an early election is warranted in a situation like our current one. The current government got its mandate in 2019, and if you told me about a "corona virus" back then I'd have thought that refers to an uptick in sales for a Mexican beer that is swamping domestic beer manufacturers.