Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MaxQue]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French

While this may be true, I find it incredibly easy to tell the difference between a Parisian accent and a Quebec accent, and I am in no way fluent in French. Anyone who makes even the slightest effort to train their ear will immediately be able to tell the difference. It's fairly easy to tell the difference when they're speaking English too (e.g. do they pronounce th's like z's or d's?)

Also, if he is old, the fisherman from Gaspe won't have a Quebec accent, but a Maritime/New Brunswick/Acadian one.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French

While this may be true, I find it incredibly easy to tell the difference between a Parisian accent and a Quebec accent, and I am in no way fluent in French. Anyone who makes even the slightest effort to train their ear will immediately be able to tell the difference. It's fairly easy to tell the difference when they're speaking English too (e.g. do they pronounce th's like z's or d's?)

Also, if he is old, the fisherman from Gaspe won't have a Quebec accent, but a Maritime/New Brunswick/Acadian one.

My point is more that most English Canadians don't know/care what a politician sounds like while speaking French, so the notion that speaking a less polished French would hurt Quebec's reputation in the RoC makes no sense

[mileslunn]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

They only lost by a dozen points and they have a star candidate. I'd certainly call it winnable, especially if they can squash the Greens.

I suppose it could be winnable. What's fascinating has been the collapse of the Tory vote in the last couple of elections there. I think the NDP can improve maybe 5-10 points (star candidate+Green collapse), but I think it will also require some of those red Tories to return home and stop voting Liberal. I don't necessarily see that happening.

Even provincially its changed as PCs used to sweep most of the riding whereas now PCs dominate the suburban and rural parts, but the St. John's proper parts now go NDP/Liberal.  Actually if last few elections showed anything, if Tories do win seats in Newfoundland in future, it will probably be in rural parts not St. John's ridings as seems the urban/rural split like rest of country starting to happen in Newfoundland too.  Yes Liberals still dominate rural parts, but Tories do better in rural than urban unlike in past while NDP largely non-existent in rural parts.

[Continential]

The Green MP of Fredericton, Jenica Atwin crossed the floor to join the Liberals.
 
Totally not an opportunistic move.

[beesley]

In other selection news Brad Trost, one of the more socially conservative candidates from the 2017 CPC Leadership Election is running to succeed Tom Lukiwski as CPC candidate and likely MP for Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan in rural Saskatchewan. He was defeated for re-selection in his old seat of Saskatoon-University last time round. He doesn't appear to be a clear frontrunner there as of yet.

[Central Lake]

I think Hatman was discussing the Tory vote in Halifax, NS and not the Tory vote in St. John's N.L

Nevertheless, there is a point about the shifting urban and rural vote in Newfoundland. If we classify the ridings of St. John's East and St. John's South Pearl as urban and classify the ridings of Avalon, Long Range Mountains, Bonavista Burin Trinity and Coast of Bays Central Notre Dame as rural.

Then the CPC vote share in all the rural ridings was higher than the CPC vote share in the urban ridings in 2019 federal election.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/JenicaAtwin/status/1404452811912486912?s=19

Ugh, pathetic.

[King of Kensington]

"Please see my statement" = I was compelled

[King of Kensington]

Uppal says after the Liberals beat the Conservatives at the polls, he spent considerably more time talking to Canadians outside the partisan political bubble.

He says it was through these conversations that he came to understand how the niqab policy and other pronouncements during the election campaign alienated Muslim Canadians and contributed to the growing problem of Islamophobia in Canada.

"When it came to these policies, I should have used my seat at the table to push against divisiveness that promoted the notion of the other," he said in the Facebook post. "I regret not being a stronger voice and sincerely apologize for my role."

Many have parents, grandparents, aunts, and uncles who blazed the trail for them in Canada because they believed it would provide their families with a safer and prosperous future, Uppal said.

"The Canada that they believed in was one that held, in its core, the belief that your race, your religion, your gender, or your sexuality would be accepted here," he wrote.

"It is up to us all to make Canada a better place."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservative-mp-tim-uppal-sorry-for-role-in-divisiveness-of-harper-era-policies-1.5469581

[mileslunn]

Uppal says after the Liberals beat the Conservatives at the polls, he spent considerably more time talking to Canadians outside the partisan political bubble.

He says it was through these conversations that he came to understand how the niqab policy and other pronouncements during the election campaign alienated Muslim Canadians and contributed to the growing problem of Islamophobia in Canada.

"When it came to these policies, I should have used my seat at the table to push against divisiveness that promoted the notion of the other," he said in the Facebook post. "I regret not being a stronger voice and sincerely apologize for my role."

Many have parents, grandparents, aunts, and uncles who blazed the trail for them in Canada because they believed it would provide their families with a safer and prosperous future, Uppal said.

"The Canada that they believed in was one that held, in its core, the belief that your race, your religion, your gender, or your sexuality would be accepted here," he wrote.

"It is up to us all to make Canada a better place."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservative-mp-tim-uppal-sorry-for-role-in-divisiveness-of-harper-era-policies-1.5469581

Smart idea.  I think further party gets away from Harper the better.  Even though he has been out of office for almost six years, he is still quite radioactive and loathed by Canadians.  His image unlike Mulroney has not improved with time.  Mulroney and Trudeau sr, were even more unpopular when defeated but over time rehabilitated.  I think obviously this is a right step and no doubt party needs to push the more bigoted elements out.  Challenge is while most Conservatives are not bigots, most bigots vote Conservative and if that vote splits off and goes to one of the other right wing parties like PPC or Maverick Party could hurt them.  Still its right thing to do irrespective of political ramifications.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1404519078014984206?s=20

Possibly the Tories' best pickup opportunity, who knows.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1404519078014984206?s=20

Possibly the Tories' best pickup opportunity, who knows.

20 years ago, this was a Liberal leaning riding, even stayed Liberal in 1997, but today probably one of the most favourable ridings in Atlantic Canada for Tories so while wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold it, if Tories make any gains in Atlantic Canada, even if as few as 7 seats, this would probably be one of them.  In 2004, won 7 seats and lost this by 20 points.  Today if Tories win 7 seats in Atlantic Canada, pretty sure this would be one of them.  I am guessing Liberals did well in past over sectarian reasons as predominately English speaking but Catholic, whereas now being one of the most rural and socially conservative, things have changed.  In 2004, Tories won both St. John's ridings while those are amongst some of the worst today in Atlantic Canada.  They could win 25 seats there and would probably still lose those two.

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/GlobalNational/status/1404550007013793792Here's another.  Greens did well here in 2019, and if they weren't in such a state this might have been a great target.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/GlobalNational/status/1404550007013793792Here's another.  Greens did well here in 2019, and if they weren't in such a state this might have been a great target.

Exactly and also with Greens in a mess kills any chances of Tories picking up seat as with Greens stronger it would create splits possible for Tories to come up middle, but that is not happening.  Still even then, I think this is a place that might vote for Red Tories, but no way will it vote for present day Tories.  Even Dennis King who is very popular wants nothing to do with federal party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Malpeque will be an interesting riding to watch... Wayne Easter has been MP for so long, we don't know if it's a true Liberal riding or if it's a Wayne Easter riding.

In the last provincial election, the Tories swept 5/7 provincial ridings in Malpeque, but when it comes to PEI, comparing federal and provincial elections is like comparing apples and oranges. Federally, the Tories tend to do better in the west (Prince Co/Egmont), while provincially they do better in the east (Kings Co/Cardigan). Recent electoral referendums show that support for reform is stronger the closer you get to Charlottetown. If you use that as a proxy for how conservative a place is, then the reality is both Prince and Kings are more small-c conservative. Malpeque being more in the middle is influenced by its proximity to Charlottetown, and support for electoral reform did quite well there in the 2019, so the area leans more progressive. Anyway, I'm getting too #analysis here. Bigger factors are candidate strength for sure, and (this may be me hugely speculating) also who voters think will win the federal election. I think one of the reasons the Tories won Egmont in 2008 because voters there wanted a seat at the cabinet table for PEI.  It helped that Gail Shea was a sitting MLA - but she did run against a former Premier.

[mileslunn]

Malpeque will be an interesting riding to watch... Wayne Easter has been MP for so long, we don't know if it's a true Liberal riding or if it's a Wayne Easter riding.

In the last provincial election, the Tories swept 5/7 provincial ridings in Malpeque, but when it comes to PEI, comparing federal and provincial elections is like comparing apples and oranges. Federally, the Tories tend to do better in the west (Prince Co/Egmont), while provincially they do better in the east (Kings Co/Cardigan). Recent electoral referendums show that support for reform is stronger the closer you get to Charlottetown. If you use that as a proxy for how conservative a place is, then the reality is both Prince and Kings are more small-c conservative. Malpeque being more in the middle is influenced by its proximity to Charlottetown, and support for electoral reform did quite well there in the 2019, so the area leans more progressive. Anyway, I'm getting too #analysis here. Bigger factors are candidate strength for sure, and (this may be me hugely speculating) also who voters think will win the federal election. I think one of the reasons the Tories won Egmont in 2008 because voters there wanted a seat at the cabinet table for PEI.  It helped that Gail Shea was a sitting MLA - but she did run against a former Premier.

Even just looking at polls in riding, generally western half which is fairly rural is more conservative while eastern half more progressive as despite its rural feel, many in eastern half commute to Charlottetown whereas much less so in western half.  I think in 2008 and 2011, Tories would have flipped riding if Easter was not candidate, but Liberals would have won last two, otherwise this is pretty close to an average riding in Atlantic Canada for Tory support so its the type they can win if on track for a solid minority or majority, but Liberals if they are going to win or even just narrowly lose would win this with a generic candidate.  Greens I believe are strong in eastern half but weaker in western half but certainly if Greens weren't in the bad state they are now, would have a shot here. 

Based on how things are now politically, I think Liberals should hold this without too much difficulty.  Only if things really go sideways would this riding be vulnerable.  Miramichi-Grand Lake however I believe is a different story.  They barely won it in 2019 so while would almost certainly hold it if an election were held today; if Tories make any gains in Atlantic Canada even only very modest, that one will flip.  Otherwise Tories have better chance of winning Miramichi-Grand Lake than they do the election whereas with Malpeque that is not the case.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1404863944079155203

[DC Al Fine]

Just a reminder: when projecting you usually look at the polls and then adjust for the candidates running this time. In rural Atlantic Canada, you need to look at the candidates and then adjust for the polls.

See also: Alfie MacLeod managing a 20% swing for the Tories in Cape Breton-Canso last time.

[King of Kensington]

What a hot mess:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/process-remove-annamie-paul-active-1.6066430

[PSOL]

Even Elizabeth May doesn’t like Annmarie Paul, and she worked against others to proclaim her as GP successive president.

[mileslunn]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade. 

Overall probably good news for NDP as a lot of Green supporters are types who dislike both Liberals and Tories so I see NDP benefitting most.  Liberals could get some too as a fair bit of overlap.  Probably Tories being most harm as weaker splits although ironically on a lot of issues, Green voters aren't that left wing so if O'Toole runs on a moderate enough platform, there is some potential, but still overall probably a net loss for party. 

[MaxQue]

CAQ MNA Claire Samson (Iberville) expelled from CAQ for sending a donation to the Quebec Conservative Party.

[King of Kensington]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade.

Should give Avi Lewis a boost too, but I suspect West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country stays Liberal given that they are competitive in both West Van (Tory/Liberal) and non-West Van (progressive with green bent) parts of the riding.

[King of Kensington]

The chance of Toronto Centre going Green (always an uphill climb) is pretty much nil at this point.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade. 

Overall probably good news for NDP as a lot of Green supporters are types who dislike both Liberals and Tories so I see NDP benefitting most.  Liberals could get some too as a fair bit of overlap.  Probably Tories being most harm as weaker splits although ironically on a lot of issues, Green voters aren't that left wing so if O'Toole runs on a moderate enough platform, there is some potential, but still overall probably a net loss for party. 

By my understanding, Bloc got saved in 2019 by the politically astute and dangerously charismatic YFB. There was also a vacuum for them to exploit - the Liberals were declining in popularity, Scheer was an awful fit for Quebec in so many ways, and the NDP was spiraling in Quebec. I don't think such a vacuum exists for the Greens now though, both the LPC and NDP are polling better than their 2019 results.

Also, the Bloc is (rightly) seen as a party that can actually win seats in Quebec and play a serious role in national politics. Whereas for the Greens, even if the events of the Atwin affair hadn't happened, they're just not taken seriously.

I think the Green collapse will help the Liberals most on balance, even if Green voters are more likely to switch to the NDP. Most of the seats that hold the keys to a LPC majority are LPC-CPC races, so even a minor consolidation of the centre-left vote could have a noticeable impact.