Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Political analyst for Yahoo News 大濱﨑卓真 (Ohamazaki Takuma) puts the chances of a Kishida victory at 95%

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a66fbc7151a3b75d53b14baf5013e986fd9be47a

One the Japanese internet where the Far Right dominates  there are still plenty of sceniro analysis that has Takaichi barely making it into runoff against either Kono or Kishida  and then winning.  Most of those scenarios are pipe dreams.  It will be Kono vs Kishida for second round.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6405626

If official.  The Kishida and Takaichi  have made a pact the cooperate in case either candidate faces Kono in the second round.  They Like I said, Kono's only hope out now is that he scores a decisive victory on the LDP chapter vote and forces the various anti-Kono MPs to vote Kono on the secret ballot in the second round.   I recon he needs something like 55% of the vote which would be a decisive majority. 

If Kono wins I would back LDP in the upcoming general election.  If Kishida wins I would continue my support of JRP.

[jaichind]

When Kishida likely wins on the second round the Japanese equity index will fall.  I think a lot of foreign money are still assuming a Kono victory and they will most likely get a nasty surprise when Kishida wins on the second round.

[jaichind]

According to NHK partial count of LDP chapter vote has

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 169
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           110
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)           74
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                29

Kono lead but not decisive lead.  Kishida all but certain to win now on second round.  MP count to come in 10-15 min.

[jaichind]

MP count just came out.  Kono underperformance.


                                           MP        LDP Chapter       Total
河野太郎(Kono Taro)                86              169                255
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)         146              110               256
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)        114               74                188
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               34               29                  63

Takaichi  outperformed on the MP ballot whole Noda outperformed across the board.

Easy victory for Kishida on the second ballot to come.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Abe-Takaichi  showed how powerful the hard Right is within the LDP caucus.

[jaichind]

What seems to have taken place on the first round is Kono's support with 二階(Nikai) faction melted away and they shifted to Takaichi and Noda. Takaichi I understand as part of 二階(Nikai) faction attempt to get a Kono vs runoff.  Not sure why some of 二階(Nikai) faction voted Noda.  If this explanation is true then most of this MP vote will shift to Kono on the second round.  Kono will still lose but Kono might gain more from the Takaichi's MP vote than expected.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Stock Exchange drop off as first round result came out that has Kono underperforming.

[jaichind]

LDP chapter vote share seems to be

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 44%
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           29%
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          19%
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 8%



I would say Kono and Takaichi  underperformed while Kishida  and Noda overperformed.

[jaichind]

It seems on the LDP prefecture chapter vote in terms of number of prefecture Kono and  Kishida  are ahead of each other it is Kono 39 Kishida  8 with Kono around 2-3 prefectures less than one would have expected pre-election.

[jaichind]

LDP MPs have voted in the second round.  Counting of the MP ballots will start soon.

[jaichind]

The curse of the Kono family continues.  Kono Senior who led the LDP splinter NLC in the 1970s early 1980s became LDP Prez in 1993 after the defeat of the LDP in the 1993 election.  LDP returned to power in an alliance with SPJ in 1994 but had to yield the PM position to SPJ as part of that alliance.  Kono senior led LDP to a lukewarm performance in 1995 Upper House election so he failed to contest the 1995 LDP Prez election.  As a result he missed out on being PM when the LDP did recapture the PM position in 1996.  Until 2009 Kono senior was the first and only LDP leader who did not become PM.
 Now it seems Kono junior will also miss out on being PM.

[jaichind]

                                            MP          LDP chapter      Total
河野太郎(Kono Taro)              131               39                170
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)        249                 8                257

Kishida wins by a solid margin.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Winners:
Kishida (will become PM)
Abe (shows he is a kingmaker)
JRP (should do well against Kishida led LDP)
CDP (avoided having to face Kono led LDP in areas of their strength in greater Tokyo area)
Takaichi (established herself as Abe successor on the hard Right)
LDP faction politics (result showed that the establishment  decides and not the rank-an-file)

Losers:
Kono (he seems broken by this result, in theory if things goes badly for  Kishida be he came come back next time)
Nikai (gambit against Kishida fails and will not be looking at de facto retirement)
DPP (will do poorly against Kishida led LDP)
Shigeru (seems to be the kiss of death within the LDP, endorsement of Kono turned him from frontrunner to underdog)
Koizumi Junior (in theory his path to PM in the late 2020s and early 2030s is still intact, still backing the wrong horse will set him back from getting a more senior role)
PRC (losing their main ally Nikai within the LDP is bad, the fact Kono was tarred as pro-PRC also shows that PRC is toxic within LDP circles)
Junior LDP MPs: Some of their seats are now at risk in the general election

[jaichind]

Map of winners by prefecture in LDP chapter vote.  I think Kono ended up winning 秋田(Akita) even thought an incomplete count had  Kishida  ahead.    Takaichi  won her home prefecture of 奈良   *(Nara) while Noda won her home prefecture of 岐阜(Gifu).   Kishida won his home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima) and some prefectures next to it plus some of the most rural prefectures.  Kono won all the rest.

[Logical]

The regicide is now the King. You don't see that happen often. Kono's gamble has backfired terribly and I think he knows it. He won't get a better chance. The next PM will come from the far right with the backing of Abe.

[jaichind]

Votes by prefecture



Kono are strong in urban prefectures and prefectures that opposition are strong
Kishida are stronger in rural prefectures and prefectures around his home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima)
Takaichi are stronger in Kinki prefectures that are close to her home prefecture of 奈良(Nara)

東京(Tokyo) vote share actually matches the national vote share pretty closely.  There are some deep South rural prefectures where Kono is strong that breaks the pattern.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Telling that Kishida won in the Chugoku region, isn't it?

[jaichind]

Telling that Kishida won in the Chugoku region, isn't it?

Sure just like Takaichi did well in the Kinki area.  This is the favorite son effect.  Also note that Kono won a blowout victory in 鳥取(Tottori) despite it being in Chugoku region.  That is because of the Shigeru affect. 
 
 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Telling that Kishida won in the Chugoku region, isn't it?

Sure just like Takaichi did well in the Kinki area.  This is the favorite son effect.  Also note that Kono won a blowout victory in 鳥取(Tottori) despite it being in Chugoku region.  That is because of the Shigeru affect. 
 
 

What explains Yamagata and Aomori?

[jaichind]

Telling that Kishida won in the Chugoku region, isn't it?

Sure just like Takaichi did well in the Kinki area.  This is the favorite son effect.  Also note that Kono won a blowout victory in 鳥取(Tottori) despite it being in Chugoku region.  That is because of the Shigeru affect. 
 
 

What explains Yamagata and Aomori?

Well Kishida  won 青森(Aomori) so there is not much to explain since that is a rural prefecture. 山形(Yamagata) mostly falls in the "Kono won because it is an area of opposition strength."  This has to be qualified.  This is a prefecture that is very rural and falling further and further behind and has a lot of discontent.  The voters there are hostile the national LDP but are very supportive of the local LDP.  When the LDP nominate someone that does not have deep roots here the opposition blows  them out.  Good news for LDP is that in most races the LDP has a surplus of local talent with deep personal roots here.

[jaichind]

I am trying to figure out why more junior LDP MPs in marginal seats did not vote Kono when the vote was anonymous.  They must know that with Kono leading the ticket there chance of being re-elected would be greater.  The only thing I can think of was they were told in uncertain terms by the various LDP kingpins that if Kono wins the LDP establishment will not really cooperate with Kono in the upcoming general election so their electoral prospects could, if anything, be worse with Kono leading the ticket. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just noticed Yamanashi.
Seems a bit of an outlier but there has to be some reason for it.
More generally I'm a bit surprised to see how little Kishida's "ideology" vs Kono's seems to have mattered.