Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Logical]

If the LDP lose badly today will Suga pull the trigger on early elections to pre-empt his rivals?

[Logical]

Found a nice website that shows who's running in each district for the next lower house election and where each party is running candidates. Also comes with plenty of other useful links.
https://candidates2021.info/

[Logical]

Preliminary numbers for Japan's apportionment based on the census. The Kanto area will gain seats while rural prefectures continue to bleed seats.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA188FJ0Y1A610C2000000/

On the PR block Tokyo and South Kanto will gain 2 and 1 seats respectively while Tohoku, Hokuriku-Shinetsu and Chugoku will lose 1 seat each. I wonder if the number of seats will be increased again to placate rural members.

[Logical]

Would the LDP just increase the size of the HoR to 482 or 483 members?

It's certainly an option. The raw data can be found here
https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000757018.pdf
Under the current plan, the apportionment will change like this:
+5 Tokyo
+2 Kanagawa
+1 Saitama, Chiba, Aichi
-1 Miyagi, Fukushima, Niigata, Shiga, Wakayama, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi, Ehime, Nagasaki

Japan uses the Adams method, which is heavily biased towards smaller subdivisions, to distribute seats. If you increase the number of FPTP seats to 300, as it originally was from 1996-2014 then you'll get:
+6 Tokyo
+3 Kanagawa
+2 Aichi
+1 Saitama, Chiba, Osaka, Fukuoka
-1 Niigata, Yamaguchi, Ehime, Nagasaki
Some, but not all rural losses will be mitigated.

[Logical]

LDP has underperformed nearly every election since Suga became leader.

[Logical]

From the NHK exit poll

Koike Approval
64% Approve
36% Disapprove

Olympics
38% No spectators
26% Cancelled
21% Agree with current policy
10% Postponed again
5% No restriction on audiences

Cabinet approval
39% Approve
61% Disapprove

Looks like the fundamentals win out in the end.

[Logical]

They got a lucky break in Kitatama 3rd. Had either the JCP/CDP candidate stood down the opposition would've won a seat handily. But then again I believe that they would do some electoral dark arts to pull enough LDP votes to win.

[Logical]

Asahi exit poll
In constituencies where CDP stood down, 51% of their supporters voted for JCP, 23% for TFP, 22% for others and only 4% for LDP.
In constituencies where JCP stood down, 77% of their supporters voted for CDP, 15 for TFP, 6% for others and 2% for LDP.

Unlike the unions, most CDP supporters have no qualms about voting tactically for JCP/other parties to block the LDP.

[Logical]

Examples of failure for CDP-JCP to form an alliance cost them seats

Interestingly, the two CDP candidates were incumbents who ran under Tomin last time. If you include 3 member districts then Kitatama 3rd counts as an opposition failure too.

[Logical]

Candidate map for LDP-KP.

Things are simpler here as given the strength of LDP candidate quality they have solid candidates pretty much everywhere.  

1) KP (pink) will run in 9 seats.   They swapped 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th which they unexpected lost in 2017 and think they are unlikely to regain in 2021 with 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd with LDP which I suspect they will lose as well.

2) Dark Blue are where there are two LDP candidates from two different factions.  In some LDP will have both of them run as independents and the winner be retroactively made the LDP candidate and in others the LDP will back one of the two and the other most likely will run as a LDP rebel.  Every election we have 2-3 of these cases.  So far the number of problem seats for LDP seem larger than normal which is a bad sign.  Good news for LDP is they have another month or so to try to work out a deal in some of the seats.  In most of them I still expect the LDP to win since almost all of them are safe LDP seats so these rebellions are not problematic by themselves  but it is more about the number of these rebellions shows the unease within the LDP ranks that is the bigger issue.

3) White are where LDP has no candidate.  This is either because of a last minute LDP incumbent retirement in a relatively safe LDP seat (神奈川(Kanagawa) 3rd, 石川(Ishikawa) 1st, 島根(Shimane) 2nd) or last minute LDP incumbent retires because he is almost certain to lose (埼玉(Saitama) 10th,  東京(Tokyo) 9th, 東京(Tokyo) 15th) or where the Opposition incumbent is so strong LDP is struggling to get someone to run(栃木(Tochigi) 2nd, 長崎(Nagasaki) 1st.)  The latter two types are especially hurtful for LDP because without a quality candidate to keep them close would free up opposition resources to contest elsewhere to take down LDP in marginal seats.  The LDP will most likely come up with someone but the quality gap between them and the incumbents will be large.

4) Grey are the LDP incumbent has resigned from LDP due to scandal but are still looking to contest.  The LDP are likely to lose these seats if the ex-LDP incumbent does not run so the LDP are looking at how to handle them.  Either bring them back as LDP candidate or allow them to run as a pro-LDP independent and retroactively nominate them if they win as the voters would have "cleansed" them of their scandal.

1. Am I colorblind because I don't think I spot any dark blue.

2. I can see a few more LDP retirements in the next few weeks given how old some of their veteran MPs are.

[Logical]

Lose-lose situation for the LDP. If Suga stays he'll drag the party down. If he goes, it'll remind voters of the chaotic post Koizumi days and damage the image of stability that Abe had built. Either way it'll eat up time and resources that should've been spent preparing for the election. I can see LDP losing a majority on its own now. Only saving grace is that the opposition isn't seen as a credible alternative yet.

[Logical]

In other news, the Yokohama mayor election is turning into a live trainwreck lol. There were 9 candidates running, which includes former cabinet ministers and governors. Today the media reports that former governor and current JRP Councilor for Kanagawa 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) will throw his hat into the ring as well. Matsuzawa was last elected in 2019 and his term expires in 2025. He will have to resign his seat to run but there won't be a byelection in October. According to the law, separate byelections for the House of Councilors are to be held only if at least a quarter of the seats are vacant, and as there are 8 seats in total for Kanagawa the byelection will be folded into the regularly scheduled election next summer. 5 candidates will be elected instead of the usual 4 ,however, the 5th placed candidate will win only a 3 year term while the 1st-4th placed candidates will win a regular 6 year term.

[Logical]

According to the law, separate byelections for the House of Councilors are to be held only if at least a quarter of the seats are vacant, and as there are 8 seats in total for Kanagawa the byelection will be folded into the regularly scheduled election next summer.

A little correction for this. I was curious why there was a byelection for Saitama in 2019 despite there being just 1 vacancy so I looked online. A separate byelection will only be held if more than 25% of seats from the same class is vacant. The only constituencies where this rule requires 2 vacancies to trigger a byelection are those that elects 4 or more members each time (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Aichi and Osaka). The seat that was vacant in Saitama was from the class of 2016 (3 members), starting from 2019 Saitama elects 4 members per class.

[Logical]

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)

He clarified on his twitter account that his projection has the second JCP FPTP seat in Tokyo-12th beating out KP. KP to lose Hokkaido-10th but win Hiroshima-3rd. I find the first unlikely.

[Logical]

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)

He clarified on his twitter account that his projection has the second JCP FPTP seat in Tokyo-12th beating out KP. KP to lose Hokkaido-10th but win Hiroshima-3rd. I find the first unlikely.

Wow.  I find it hard to believe JCP can win in a 1-on-1 race, even if it is against KP.  沖縄(Okinawa) 1st is possible only because LDP and JRP split the anti-JCP vote.  I agree with you.  I find it hard to believe that KP loses 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th but somehow wins 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd.  My current projection has it other way around.  

Usually these projections come with a seat by seat projection.  I was not able to find it.  Were you able to find it ?

I do not see any seat by seat by projection. However, he answered questions about the prediction on twitter.
https://twitter.com/km55ep/status/1417047277588271105
https://twitter.com/km55ep/status/1417162447710867457

In the accompanying article he also expects that turnout will reach a record low (~50%), but this is driven by the core LDP vote staying home. It also says that the LDP is polling abysmally in Tokyo and Osaka (anti olympics fever?) so I think that's why he made that bold call.

[Logical]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20210721/k10013152451000.html
嵐の党 (Storm Party), usually referred to as the NHK Party, changes its name again to NHKと裁判してる党弁護士法72条違反で (The party fighting against NHK in the trial for violating Article 72 of the Attorney Act)
I'm not sure what Article 72 of the Attorney Act is. For a non parody party, these guys are pretty entertaining though.

[Logical]

Right wing magazine 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) came out with their projection of Lower House elections.

https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b1462

 Their exact projection is behind a paywall but based on what I read about it they seems to have something like

LDP                  230
KP                     32
DPP                   15
CDP                 120
RS                      5
SDP                    1
JCP                   19
Ind.                  10 (3 pro-LDP, 2 pro-CDP, 5 pro-DPP)

which would mean LDP and CDP underperforming while DPP JRP JCP and RS outperforming.  LDP loses majority but LDP-KP should easily form the government.  Suga will have to go in such a scenerio.

There are ways to bypass a paywall. Easiest is by reading it from an archive site.
https://archive.ph/kYeu0

[Logical]

https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b1521
Good article from the Bunshun. Suga's current plan is to dissolve the House immediately on September 6 after the Paralympics end. That way he can avoid the leadership election and bring his case directly to the Japanese people. Kono Taro's main obstacle is that his maverick behavior isn't well liked among the LDP power brokers. Desperate times calls for desperate measures, the next 2 weeks will be critical.

[Logical]

There are rumours of an Abe comeback. Either way, the era of rotating Prime Ministers has returned.

[Logical]

Looking into 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) some more I found out that she was married to a LDP MP for a while and got divorced in 2017.  It seems that they got divorced because she became too Right wing for him.  Both her and her ex-husband were LDP rebels in the early 1990s and spent some time in Ozawa's NFP in the late 1990s before going back to LDP.

This is one general pattern in Oriental electoral democracies (Japan ROK ROC.)  All women politicians are   

a) never married, no children
b) married to another politician with no children
c) joined politics after their children are grown up usually as a succor to another male politician (father or husband) 

高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) married her fellow LDP MP husband in her 40s and well past her child bearing age.  Another possible LDP women aspirant 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) also was married to a fellow LDP MP well past her child bearing age before getting divorced.  She then married this ex-Yakuza current husband.

The reason for this trend to be that in Orientals democracies

a) politics tend to be transactional and non-ideological which means that an up and coming politician have no personal time
b) have a clearly pattern of female hypergamy so a capable women that became an up and coming politician will be looking for a husband with greater career success.  But these same possible husband are looking to raise a family and that is pretty much impossible with a politician for a wife who has no personal time.

I think at the township level there are some room for married with young children women politicians but anything above that becomes extremely rare.

Noda Seiko is actually very interesting as she had a child very late in her life and in the middle of her career. She became pregnant at the age of 49 through an American egg donor (egg donor is still banned and frowned upon in Japan as far as I know). Her son has severe developmental disabilities and required many surgeries before being discharged from hospital.

One of the new CDP Tokyo assembly member is an unmarried single mother. I think there are a few more young mothers in the house now but most of them are related by marriage or blood to male politicians.

[Logical]

The regicide is now the King. You don't see that happen often. Kono's gamble has backfired terribly and I think he knows it. He won't get a better chance. The next PM will come from the far right with the backing of Abe.

[Logical]

I think this is going to be a bad election for Komeito. Good chance of losing another 1-2 district seats and finishing below 20 PR seats. Their base is literally dying out of the electorate. Unlike the JCP who can attract left of center opposition voters behind them, why would anyone not affiliated or related to Soka Gakkai members vote for Komeito in the PR slate. If turnout rises beyond expectations it could turn disastrous.

[Logical]

When  are the requirements and deadline date for candidate registration?

The main requirement for SMDs is paying a 3 million Yen ($27k) deposit that only gets refunded if you get at least 10% of the vote. Last date for candidate registration or withdrawal is October 19th.

[Logical]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

List here: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d83c026d6c8a5afe54b93da1f1c232d2ecf05574
Some of them have been announced previously. I think about 5-7 of them can be considered competitive. More importantly, the JCP does not rule out further adjustments and withdrawals in the coming days.

[Logical]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

List here: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d83c026d6c8a5afe54b93da1f1c232d2ecf05574
Some of them have been announced previously. I think about 5-7 of them can be considered competitive. More importantly, the JCP does not rule out further adjustments and withdrawals in the coming days.

By my calculations there are still 7 more tossup/competitive seats that where CDP and JCP have candidates in (mostly in 東京(Tokyo) and 神奈川(Kanagawa.) The number for CDP vs RS tossup/competitive seats are 6 (mostly in 東京(Tokyo.)

So it seems there will be some hard talks between CDP JCP and RS over 東京(Tokyo) the next few days.  The main problem is there are many solid LDP seats left in 東京(Tokyo) for CDP to cede to JCP or RS in compensation.  CDP can yield seats in the prefectures but the JCP and RS 東京(Tokyo) branches will have  problem with this and revolt.

The elephant in the room is Tokyo 8th, where Yamamoto Taro announced he was running before withdrawing 3 days later due to strong local CDP opposition. It is a seat where a unified opposition candidate should theoretically win comfortably. Yamamoto Taro said that there were tapes of CDP execs promising him the seat, but it seems that they failed to consult the local branch. It's a mess, but if they manage to unify their candidate here, at least the opposition can avoid the usual perceptions of being divided and useless. Perhaps they should drop in Yamamoto Taro in Chiba 6th?