Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Suga states he still intends to run for re-election for LDP Prez. 

[jaichind]

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru), leader of the small 石破(Ishiba) faction, long time rival to Abe and perennial candidate for LDP Prez in the 2012-2020 period will not run in Sept 2021 LDP Prez race.  He did worse than expected in 2020 LDP Prez race and I guess this time he figure he will bide his time.

[jaichind]

FNN poll which has Suga cabinet approval at 32.1% has 52.5% of LDP supporters that want Suga out of LDP Prez by end of Sept.




As for who should be next PM

Kono Taro                    17.9% (in theory not running in LDP Prez race but we will see)
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  15.5% (just said he will not run in LDP Prez race)
Koizumi Junior             11.4% (too young in practice to run in LDP Prez race)
Abe                              8.6% (in theory backing Suga, if Suga gets out could get in to stop Kono)
枝野幸男(Edano Yukio)    4.3% (CDP leader, 4.3% show how much the opposition is out of the game)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)  3.5% (Almost certain to run in LDP Prez race)
Suga                            2.5% (Current PM at 2.5% for next PM)
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) 1.5% (First Female candidate for LDP Prez ever)
下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun)  0.2% (clearly has name recognition problems)



Funny how the de facto declared candidates (Suga, Kishida,  Takaichi, Shimomura) are the one with the lowest ratings.  The ones which are popular are not running, yet.

[jaichind]

Nikkan Gendai has an article saying that an internal LDP survey has LDP losing 50+ seats (the range was 40-60 seat loss by LDP insiders) which would put them in the range of losing LDP majority.  This is around where my current projection is and a bit worse for the LDP than CW.

Yukan Fuji did its own survey (I have to find details at some stage) that claims that LDP will lose 70+ seats.  This is mostly likely an attempt to sell the magazine at the newspaper stands since such a massive LDP loss, if true, would be big news.

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/japan-further-expand-virus-emergency-areas-covid-cases-surge-n1277576

"Japan to further expand virus emergency areas as Covid cases surge"

8 more prefectures added to be covered by state of emergency.  Note that the ending date for all 8 prefectures is Sept 12 just like the other Greater Tokyo prefecture already under state of emergency.  This means if COVID-19 surge can be contained by Sept 12 Suga still has an opening to call for general elections right after the Sept 12 emergency ends.  For this to work the infection numbers has to be on his side and not ambiguous enough to look like Suga is rushing toward an election.

[jaichind]

My post 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election projection for Lower House elections

            District       PR          Total
LDP          166        65            231
KP               8         22             30
JRP            10         19             29
DPP             6           1               7
CDP           87         52            139
RS               0           1               1
SDP             1           0               1
JCP              1         16             17
Others        10                          10 (5 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPP, 2 pro-CDP)  
Total         289      176            465

This is somewhat better for the LDP than CW based projection

            District       PR          Total
LDP          157        66            223
KP               7         23             30
JRP            10         14             24
DPP             6           2               8
CDP           99         53            152
RS               0           1               1
SDP             1           0               1
JCP              1         17             18
Others          8                           8 (3 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPP, 2 pro-CDP)  
Total         289      176            465

[jaichind]

Suga cabinet approval curve falls below 30%

[jaichind]

Latest Nikkei poll for best LDP Prez has good news for Suga

                                    All                 LDP voters
Kono Taro                      16%                 18%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)    16%                  12%  (most likely will not run for LDP Prez)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)  13%                  14% (is running for LDP Prez)
Suga                             11%                  20%
Koizumi Junior                 9%                    8%
Abe                                 7%                  10%
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)   3%                    4% (is running for LDP Prez)



If these are the numbers then Suga should win the LDP Prez race.

Of course it that is the case then we can expect a high turnout general election.  The marginal anti-Suga vote wil come out in that case as well as the LDP base.  If Suga is not leading LDP then the anti-Suga will not come out but switching PM candidate last minute also means the LDP base will be demoralized and will turn out at a lower rate.  Still high turnout election historically has not been good for LDP.  Only Koizumi has been able to lead the LDP to win a high turnout election (2001 Upper House and 2005 Lower House).

[jaichind]

Despite the fall in Suga cabinet approval LDP PR vote is holding steady at 35% with CDP at 15%.  KP at 5% means LDP-KP are polling at around 40%.  This seems to imply a final LDP-KP PR vote share of around 44%-45% which is only a small drop from 2017.  But in 2017 HP won some LDP votes and with HP gone one would have expected these votes to go back to LDP pushing LDP-KP to be around 47%.  Instead LDP-KP most likely will lose some votes relative to 2017.   Still if these are the numbers then LDP-KP should be ok on the PR seats.  The main threat to LDP is the consolidation of the anti-LDP vote in the FPFP seats.

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll has Suga cabinet approval at 34% which is same as last poll.  Note that this level is the lowest for the entire Abe-Suga era which gives you a sense of the house effect of Nikkei polls.

[jaichind]

It seems  while 下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun) (member of 細田(Hosoda)  faction) does have 20 MPs willing to nominate him for LDP Prez race he was told by key members of the 細田(Hosoda) faction that the faction is still going to support Suga.  This pretty much cuts off any chances  下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun)  has and he will most likely withdraw from the LDP Prez race.

With no signs Taro Kono getting into the race 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) is the only person that anti-Suga can consolidate around to stop Suga.  If the 麻生(Aso) faction mostly back Suga then the race is pretty much over with Suga winning.

[jaichind]

It seems after meeting with LDP general secretary and leader of the 二階(Nikai) faction 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro), Suga got 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) support for a cabinet reshuffle that shifts power away from the 二階(Nikai) faction and toward 細田(Hosoda) faction and 麻生(Asō) faction.  Such a move would be a perquisite for Suga to lock up Abe and Aso support and with it the backing of those two factions.  If this is carried out then most likely it is game over and victory for Suga. 

[jaichind]

Latest rumors coming out of LDP high command is that Suga will hold the Lower House elections for Oct 17th and delay LDP Prez election from Sept 29th to until after the general elections.  The main risk he takes by doing this is that anti-Suga forces in the LDP might not go all out in the general election hoping that a relatively poor performance in the general elections will give them a chance to oust Suga.  In theory there is not a big difference between LDP at 230 seats (Suga most likely ousted in LDP Prez race by losing the LDP majority by itself) versus LDP at 245 seats (Suga will win the LDP Prez race) in government formation but the anti-Suga bloc within the LDP might overdo it and get LDP down to 210 seats where the LDP-KP majority will be so narrow as to make it difficult for the government to function.

[jaichind]

Latest rumors coming out of LDP high command is that Suga will hold the Lower House elections for Oct 17th and delay LDP Prez election from Sept 29th to until after the general elections.  The main risk he takes by doing this is that anti-Suga forces in the LDP might not go all out in the general election hoping that a relatively poor performance in the general elections will give them a chance to oust Suga.  In theory there is not a big difference between LDP at 230 seats (Suga most likely ousted in LDP Prez race by losing the LDP majority by itself) versus LDP at 245 seats (Suga will win the LDP Prez race) in government formation but the anti-Suga bloc within the LDP might overdo it and get LDP down to 210 seats where the LDP-KP majority will be so narrow as to make it difficult for the government to function.

Suga came out and denied these rumors.  He said that there are no plans for LDP Prez race to be delayed nor are there plans to call a general election until COVID-19 is under control.

[jaichind]

What is coming out from the Japanese media is that the rumors that Suga planned an Oct 17th general election and a delay of the LDP Prez election until after the general election was what he planned on doing and that he only made a last minute U-turn due to opposition from several LDP kinpins including Abe as well a good part of the LDP caucus.  The fear seems to be that an election as early as Oct 17th with COVID-19 surge still fresh in people's memories will risk LDP-KP losing its majority.  Due to this pushback Suga did a last minute cancellation of these plans.  This push and U-turn has hurt Suga's stature within the party.  It might all come down to Abe, whoever Abe backs (Suga the anti-Suga forces) will most likely have the upper hand.

[Oryxslayer]

So Suga isn't running for LDP Pres anymore. I wonder how much that changes...everything...

[Lachi]

There does any hope for the opposition not getting obliterated, might as well just start hailing King emperor Kishida now

[Logical]

There are rumours of an Abe comeback. Either way, the era of rotating Prime Ministers has returned.

[jaichind]

Tokyo stock markets surge on news of Suga stepping down.  I guess chances of a solid LDP victory in general elections had gone up.   Abe might come back.   This also paves the way for Kono Taro to jump in.  Suga had planned a big LDP reorg to increase his chances of winning the LDP Prez race.  I guess he figured it was not enough. 

[jaichind]

So in the end Kishida most likely will end up a stalking horse.  He would wound Suga but will not get the crown as he would merely pave the way for someone more powerful.  CDP must be disappointed.  They had hoped to run against Suga in the general election. Someone new from LDP does highlight LDP failure o COVID-19 but also puts the spotlight on how unprepared CDP is for power. 

[jaichind]

Sources close to Kono Taro says he will run for LDP Prez

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/09/6906cfa2972b-ldp-leader-hopefuls-reiterate-intention-to-run-after-suga-withdraws.html

"Vaccination minister Taro Kono to run in LDP leadership race"

Kono Taro will run.   He is now the favorite to win. This is bad news for CDP and JRP.  Kono is Libertarian/Thatcherite and will appeal to non-Osaka especially non-Kinki voters.  He is also moderate on Constitutional reform which would appeal to CDP voters, especially in the Tokyo suburb swing districts.  He is a poor fit for rural Western Japan but LDP is very strong there. I can see him limiting LDP losses to 15-25 seats and win 260 seats now.

[jaichind]

In the end deep down everyone in LDP knew that Kono was going to be the strongest candidate to lead LDP.   The trick was how to avoid a total embarrassment for Suga and Kono being the one to strike the blow.  The LDP found a way.  This is how the LDP wins. They are ruthless in internal competition for the strongest to emerge but avoids those battle scars from hurting them in the general election.

[jaichind]

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru), leader of the small 石破(Ishiba) faction who ruled out running indicated he will now reconsider his decision.  BTW the best way for Kono to win is for  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) to run.  Abe is somewhat hostile to Kono but Abe really hates 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and if it becomes a 3 way race between Kono, 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) then Abe might come in to back Kono to stop 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).   

麻生太郎(Taro Aso), leader of the 麻生(Asō) faction that Kono is a member of indicate he neither support nor oppose Kono.  The reason why Abe and Aso are somewhat negative on Kono is because back in 2009 Koko also ran for the LDP Prez position after LDP's landslide defeat.  Back then Kono ran as a Young Turk to root out all the "fuddy duddies" in the LDP Old Guard.  Both Abe and Aso took Kono's failed campaign in 2009 as directed at them so they have lingering negativity toward Kono.

[jaichind]

Nippon TV is reporting that Suga is indicating he would back Kono for the LDP race.