Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455635356326502405?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455635224717676544?s=20

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

Wow, talking about taking my comments of context

Vaccinated Russian Bear I thought you were better that

My statement about not being able take Dave Wasserman seriously was because moments earlier he had just put of a tweet that ended being wrong and then he had to delete it.

my comment had nothing to do with turnout
it was was simply me saying that I no longer took Dave Wasserman tweets serilously

To be fair, why did you ever?

I won't lie there was a period where Dave Wasserman could do no wrong in my eyes because he was always getting the results of the election correct, but at some point Wasserman started believing his own hype and he started to care more about getting clicks than he did about getting the election right

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1455635145055109120?s=20

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455633682853777409?s=20

Poquoson also has a population of 12,000 and is very wealthy and educated.

Not to discount the high turnout in a R area, as those votes do matter, but this seems to be more indicative of high wealthy-and-educated turnout rather than high R turnout, which definitely benefits Democrats in Virginia.

Rain clearing out of NoVA just in time for the afternoon rush of TMac soccer moms.

One of the pleasures of Atlas is seeing memes connect across spans of 4 years or more.

Never change, Atlas

Yes, turnout only benefits Democrats

That's not what I said. I said if turnout is high specifically among wealthy, educated voters in Virginia, then it benefits Democrats, despite also raising turnout in Poquoson.

[KaiserDave]

STOP POSTING TWEETS

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, Republican turnout looks to be off the charts. Not good at all.

[jamestroll]

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/northern-virginia/distance-learning-required-in-loudoun-county-due-to-staffing-shortages/2862914/

Students in Loudoun County, Virginia, will have distance learning this week due to staffing shortages.

Wednesday and Friday will be distance learning days, the superintendent said. Monday, Tuesday and Thursday were already planned days off for student and staff holidays.

Loudon parents were greeted with this news this morning.  Not great for Terry.

damn it i want kids back in school now.

drag teachers to work kicking and screaming if we have to!

KIDS NEED TO BE IN SCHOOL DAMN IT

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

Wow, talking about taking my comments of context

Vaccinated Russian Bear I thought you were better that

My statement about not being able take Dave Wasserman seriously was because moments earlier he had just put of a tweet that ended being wrong and then he had to delete it.

my comment had nothing to do with turnout
it was was simply me saying that I no longer took Dave Wasserman tweets serilously at that point

Yawn. I repeat, Dave Wasserman has a good track records. And if you think, that him confusing some stats (while embarrasing, it one-time f**kup) somehow disproves that, well, that say more about you.

Re: Virginia. He predicted it might be a close race. In April!
He predicted much higher than 2017 turnout today in the morning, which you, guys, totally disbelieved.

That is, it is pretty clear, whom we should not take seriously.

[soundchaser]

Yup, Republican turnout looks to be off the charts. Not good at all.

Democratic turnout is also off the charts. Republicans matching Dem % of 2017 will not do them any good because they lost that race by 9 points.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I know turnout reports don't mean much, but lol at the idea that "low propensity trumpists" would not vote b/c "he's not on the ballot"

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1455637436260835341?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m really curious how the math all works out. I don’t think Virginia has enough blood red rural counties to Texas this, but I could be wrong.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455636884680544259

Ч.Т.Д.

[It’s so Joever]

The ONLY thing I can say with certainty is that this race proves that there has been a political realignment, not in terms of partisanship, but in terms of turnout. The days of low voter turnout may be no more, and some of it could be cultural. It is not “cool” today to be apathetic and nihilistic (well it is for the second but in a different way) Times have changed, and people are not going to stop turning out even with Biden in office.

[GALeftist]

Literally every tweet ITT basically just says "wow, turnout is pretty high, right, guys?"

Unless your theory for how the election was going to go involved turnout cratering in some part of Virginia, nothing's really changed. 2 hours and change till polls close and we get some more meaningful data.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m really curious how the math all works out. I don’t think Virginia has enough blood red rural counties to Texas this, but I could be wrong.

Yeah, the high turnout is good, but GOP counties do seem to be a bit ahead of Dem counties in terms of turnout.

OTOH, pretty much all the polling had Tmac doing way better with RVs then LVs, so high turnout in general should be a good sign.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1455639046680612878?s=20

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

Wow, talking about taking my comments of context

Vaccinated Russian Bear I thought you were better that

My statement about not being able take Dave Wasserman seriously was because moments earlier he had just put of a tweet that ended being wrong and then he had to delete it.

my comment had nothing to do with turnout
it was was simply me saying that I no longer took Dave Wasserman tweets serilously at that point

Yawn. I repeat, Dave Wasserman has a good track records. And if you think, that him confusing some stats (while embarrasing, it one-time f**kup) somehow disproves that, well, that say more about you.

Re: Virginia. He predicted it might be a close race. In April!
He predicted much higher than 2017 turnout today in the morning, which you, guys, totally disbelieved.

That is, it is pretty clear, whom we should not take seriously.

correct.

[KaiserDave]

Twitter is the worst thing, possibly ever

[Hope For A New Era]

One thing is for sure, high turnout in every election is the new normal.

Welcome to the 1890s!

[Umengus]

Yup, Republican turnout looks to be off the charts. Not good at all.

Democratic turnout is also off the charts. Republicans matching Dem % of 2017 will not do them any good because they lost that race by 9 points.

Polls say indies are going to vote rep this time. This is a big change.

[ProudModerate2]

PLEASE POST WEBSITE LINKS TO A GOOD VA GOVERNOR ELECTION RESULTS PAGE.

did you get the extra large coffee today?

LOL. Sorry.
I can only drink decaf. My body reacts quite negatively to caffeine (in my old-ish age).

PLEASE POST WEBSITE LINKS TO A GOOD VA GOVERNOR ELECTION RESULTS PAGE.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-virginia.html

Thank you, but I'm getting a subscription "wall" to use the NYT election results page.
Anyone have other alternatives, please post.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455638175309828104

[BigSerg]

Yup, Republican turnout looks to be off the charts. Not good at all.

Democratic turnout is also off the charts. Republicans matching Dem % of 2017 will not do them any good because they lost that race by 9 points.

Polls say indies are going to vote rep this time. This is a big change.

Yes, we have evidence to believe that Youngkin could win independents

[President Johnson]

I’m really curious how the math all works out. I don’t think Virginia has enough blood red rural counties to Texas this, but I could be wrong.

Yeah, the high turnout is good, but GOP counties do seem to be a bit ahead of Dem counties in terms of turnout.

OTOH, pretty much all the polling had Tmac doing way better with RVs then LVs, so high turnout in general should be a good sign.

A bit ahead of Democrats wouldn't actually that much of a problem? Pretty much no one at this point suggested T-Mac will win by the same margin of ten points than Biden. Even my previous prediction of eight points was lower.

Half the margin of 2020 would overall be very solid, especially with expectations lowered in the final weeks.