Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My best guess:

53% Maloy (Rep.)
41% Riebe (Dem.)
  3% Libertarians
  3% Others

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

R+10-12

Would be nice for it to be actually close and/or flip but in reality the portion of SLC in this district just isn't large enough.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polls are closed now.

[Atlas Force]

Agree or disagree about this being “the most beautiful district”?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1727160004162318776

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the counties report in the same order as the primary (ie SLC + Davis earlies being reported first), then Riebe should jump to an early lead, before Maloy overtakes eventually.

[Roll Roons]

Agree or disagree about this being “the most beautiful district”?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1727160004162318776

It's up there for sure.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Toole: 59 to 24. Trump won the county 66 to 28.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1727152286307397738

[Roll Roons]

DDHQ already called it for Maloy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This isn't even close lol:

Celeste Maloy
Republican   22,264   +62.9%62.9%   
Kathleen Riebe
Democrat   9,529   +26.9%26.9   
Perry Myers
Independent   866   +2.4%2.4   

[Matty]

Called for Maloy

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Looks like Maloy will end up outperforming Trump.

[Oryxslayer]

I think we can say that Maloy wins. Once again, we are seeing that Utah likes the GOP, just not the GOP tied to Trump. But It's notable how many votes are going to the many Third Party/Indie candidates in the Wasatch front section of the seat. Thats probably where a number of anti-Trump R's wo voted D in 2020 went.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Maybe don't run on abortion in heavily mormon Utah?

[Birdish]

I'm just waiting to see what SLC looks like.

[Birdish]

And there she is. The Blue oasis in the Red Desert.

[Roll Roons]

Salt Lake dumps and now Riebe leads 47-44. This obviously won't hold.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Piute is >95% reported; 90-6 Maloy vs 88-10 Trump

[Birdish]

So many third party candidates O_O

[Matty]

So many third party candidates O_O

Utah has a thing against 2s

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Outside of Toole/SLC, Maloy is actually hitting or coming close to the numbers Stewart got when he won re-election by 26% in '22. Yeah that includes some rural noise that isn't worth much with any margin, but it also includes the relatively populous Washington and Davis counties. Dems really dropped the ball here.

[Minnesota Mike]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

McMullen was pretty much the high water mark for Dems although technically he wasn't a Dem.  The margin will be somewhere between Trump's margin in 2020 (17?) and Stewart's in 2020 (26).

[Atlas Force]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

McMullen was pretty much the high water mark for Dems although technically he wasn't a Dem. 

Which of course is why he was the high water mark to begin with. Greg Orman over in Kansas came relatively close in 2014 of all years for the same reason.

[Oryxslayer]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

McMullen was pretty much the high water mark for Dems although technically he wasn't a Dem.  The margin will be somewhere between Trump's margin in 2020 (17?) and Stewart's in 2020 (26).

Which is the real takeaway here. The Utah GOP remains popular, even as the the population opposes Trumpism. Almost 10% for the indies should tell you where the people who voted against Trump but GOP downballot went.