Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Minnesota Mike]

Hillary having a big glass of wine and smiling ear to ear right now.

[Minnesota Mike]

Remember when after Biden said he would pick a black woman as VP Bernie Bros started pushing Nina Turner like she had a chance? Ah good times.

[Minnesota Mike]

An as expected result in FL-20 with almost all the vote in.


Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick- Democrat 41,881-  78.4%

Jason Mariner- Republican- 10,636    19.9%

Cherfilus-McCormick improved slightly on Biden's numbers.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535849705925750786

Palin doing better than I expected.

[Minnesota Mike]

CNN has projected Sarah Palin to advance to the general election.

So a fictional character did advance in Alaska. Palins just a fairy tale right?

[Minnesota Mike]

What's left is election day vote which should run more Republican BUT several of the smaller counties have 100% precincts completed while Lancaster and Sarpy have none. I don't want to get my hopes up but maybe there is a chance...

[Minnesota Mike]

ED dump from Lancaster not surprisingly more Republican, it's over. Final margin will be around 5% which Democrats will have to feel good about.

[Minnesota Mike]

Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

Different lines. The SOS sent out a memo that counties were first to process races under the new lines and then do the Special when everything else was done.

[Minnesota Mike]

No Special election returns in yet from Mower county (Ettinger's home) but the primary vote is almost all in and the total D vote and total R primary vote has been a pretty good stand in. D's with a 9.5% advantage, Trump +6 county.

[Minnesota Mike]

All the primary vote in from Winona, D's +6, Biden +1 county.

I am assuming if you vote in a parties primary you will vote for that party in the general.

[Minnesota Mike]

In Mower county about 4% of voters voted in the Republican primary and then voted for Ettinger in the special.

[Minnesota Mike]

All but 2 precincts of the Olmsted County primary vote is in and Dems lead 58-42, a little over 5,000 votes.

[Minnesota Mike]

All of Blue Earth primary vote is in, D 55 - R 45. 1,000 votes.

[Minnesota Mike]

All of Blue Earth primary vote is in, D 55 - R 45. 1,000 votes.

I'm certain there are more than 1000 votes to come out of Blue Earth

D net votes

[Minnesota Mike]

So is there a decent chance of sub 5 point margin here?

Outside chance of an Ettinger win. More likely he falls a couple percent short. If the College students were back in Mankato and Winona he might have done it.

[Minnesota Mike]

Ettinger out preformed the primary numbers in Blue Earth county by 2%, winning by 12%. Biden +4

[Minnesota Mike]

Finstad
50.1%   
54,820
2,485 ahead
Ettinger
47.8%   
52,335

%95 of the votes are in

Just Brown and Houston counties out and both will go to Finstad. Final margin will be 4,000 - 5,000 votes.

[Minnesota Mike]

Moral victories suck. This is 3 straight Dem losses in my home district. On to November when MN-01 gets 1% more blue and the college kids are back in Mankato and Winona.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not that it matters much but the MN-01 margin has narrowed to 4.0% from 4.2%. Not sure if it is new votes or just post election canvasing that changed.

[Minnesota Mike]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2004.

[Minnesota Mike]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2006.

This wasn't "expected" though. Most prognosticators had it Likely R, and given that this is a Democratic midterm with Rs constantly telling me about Bidens approval, inflation, gas prices, etc., an R winning by 4.0 when they won by 3 in 2020 in a D+4 prez/+3 house year, is a terrible result for Republicans.

Not just that, but if the Republican trends are real, you'd expect it be closer to Trumps +10 and not Hagedorns +3.

Bottom line IMO here is that we've now had numerous results that shown that this doesn't look like a red wave year at all, and Democrats are clearly engaged, with strong turnout in the blue areas of this district.

It's too bad Ds didn't put more effort here. Glad they aren't making the same mistake in NY-19.

There is a difference between reality and the hive mind of election enthusiasts. Reality is the "red wave" is likely either wishful thinking or people who clung to one data point (Biden midterm) without looking at other factors. Just because people are surprised by the result does not make it impressive.

[Minnesota Mike]

96% of precincts now in.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/ElectionSummaryReportRPTS.pdf

Begich, Nick REP        43,968 28.54%
Palin, Sarah REP         49,190 31.93%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM  58,614 38.05%
Write-in                     2,278 1.48%

Looks like Palin hangs on to spot 2 and probably is in good position to to win.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ak_elections/status/1562205593896570880

[Minnesota Mike]

Sorry about that. I feel stupid falling for a fake twitter account.

[Minnesota Mike]

NYT percentage in keeps ticking down. Down to 88%.