USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26741 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #75 on: August 31, 2020, 08:09:57 AM »
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #76 on: August 31, 2020, 08:10:34 AM »
Quote from: tagimaucia on August 30, 2020, 03:23:50 PM
Just found this.  Back in 2016, this economist constantly reweighted the 2016 LAT/USC poll based on the American Community Survey and other demographic data.  Not only did his "reweighted" version come within 0.2% of the final margin on Election Day 2018 (his final margin was Hillary +1.9, the actual was Hillary +2.1), but his estimations basically worked perfectly as a leading indicator of the RCP + other poll aggregates that was ahead of them by a week or a little less.



https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/

I went ahead and tweeted the gist to him. His response:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #77 on: August 31, 2020, 08:28:49 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 31, 2020, 08:09:57 AM


Yeah, I mean considering the sample is now literally ALL of the RNC and we've seen no bump whatsoever, so...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #78 on: August 31, 2020, 05:00:33 PM »
Just bumping this b/c people really out here yelling tightening when this thing has been steady for over a week now, and the polling period is all including the RNC.
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Buzz
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« Reply #79 on: August 31, 2020, 05:17:05 PM »
This pollster was bad in 2016, they are bad now.
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Horus
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« Reply #80 on: August 31, 2020, 05:32:52 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on August 31, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
This pollster was bad in 2016, they are bad now.

The actual numbers are bs but they're very good at showing daily trends.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #81 on: September 01, 2020, 04:58:05 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2020, 05:34:43 PM by Monstro »
Traditional method

Biden      51.9 (-1.7)
Trump    41.6 (+1.4)

Margin    Biden +10.3  (-3.1)  (Closest since August 21)
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BigSerg
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« Reply #82 on: September 01, 2020, 07:16:00 AM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #83 on: September 01, 2020, 07:16:38 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on September 01, 2020, 07:16:00 AM


+10% using the traditional as opposed to the probabilistic sample, but the trend has been steady in both results.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2020, 08:19:09 AM »
I think the stuff I posted earlier shows that this pollster is very good and useful for accurately showing movement in the race-- they just really really sucked at weighting their results properly in 2016.  They did a good job in 2012 (apparently the RAND American Life panel from that year was run by the same people) so hopefully they've fixed whatever was wrong last time, but who knows.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2020, 04:57:21 AM »
Traditional method

Biden    51.3 (-0.6)
Trump    42.0 (+0.4)

Margin    Biden +9.3  (-1)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2020, 05:05:20 AM »
Quote from: Monstro on September 02, 2020, 04:57:21 AM
Traditional method

Biden    51.3 (-0.6)
Trump    42.0 (+0.4)

Margin    Biden +9.3  (-1)

This is where it was before the DNC. Afterwards it went Biden +15 and now after the RNC it returned to status quo ante.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #87 on: September 03, 2020, 04:59:17 AM »
Probabilistic: Biden 51, Trump 43
Traditional: Biden 51, Trump 42

Pretty much settling into the same +8-ish everyone is seeing
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #88 on: September 03, 2020, 05:01:12 AM »
Nice, to see that blue avatars whom thought Trump was coming back, don't get their hopes up, any longer, Trump is doomed
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #89 on: September 04, 2020, 05:00:22 AM »
Probabilistic:
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 42 (-1)

Traditional:
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 41 (-1)
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #90 on: September 04, 2020, 07:01:05 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 07:05:23 AM by tagimaucia »
So this poll shows the DNC and RNC bounces as basically exactly equal and offsetting (~4-5% for each), and the horserace at pretty much right where it was before the conventions.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #91 on: September 05, 2020, 06:22:18 AM »
Probablistic:
Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 42% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 41% (n/c)
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Dr. Frankenstein
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« Reply #92 on: September 05, 2020, 06:36:38 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 05, 2020, 06:22:18 AM
Probablistic:
Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 42% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 41% (n/c)

Tbf, the shift was minimal. Biden went from 51.58 to 51.36 and Trump from 42.14 to 42.48.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #93 on: September 05, 2020, 06:44:16 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on September 05, 2020, 06:36:38 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 05, 2020, 06:22:18 AM
Probablistic:
Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 42% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 41% (n/c)

Tbf, the shift was minimal. Biden went from 51.58 to 51.36 and Trump from 42.14 to 42.48.

Oh f***! Denigrating deceased soldiers bump!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #94 on: September 06, 2020, 05:52:47 AM »
Probabilistic

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+1)

Traditional

Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 42% (+1)
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #95 on: September 07, 2020, 04:56:52 AM »
Probabilistic

Biden 51.5% (+1)
Trump 42.2% (-0.7)

Traditional

Biden 51.8% (+0.7)
Trump 41.4% (-0.3)
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #96 on: September 07, 2020, 10:57:16 AM »
Now added to RCP.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #97 on: September 07, 2020, 07:25:00 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on September 03, 2020, 05:01:12 AM
Nice, to see that blue avatars whom thought Trump was coming back, don't get their hopes up, any longer, Trump is doomed

King!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #98 on: September 08, 2020, 05:03:12 AM »
Probabilistic
Biden 52.2 (+0.7)
Trump 42.0 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (+1.0)
Trump 40.8 (-0.6)
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #99 on: September 09, 2020, 04:51:30 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 04:58:53 AM by VARepublican »
Probabilistic

Biden 52.7% (+1)
Trump 41.2% (-1)

Traditional

Biden 54.6% (+2)
Trump 39.8% (-1.0)
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