USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[wbrocks67]

Wowzers. Wonder if this is just the RNC falling off or a direct result of Trump's military comments. This tracker was pretty good at least in 2016 of noticing bumps in news.

[Podgy the Bear]

Add to this that economic reality may be crashing through by the substantial drops in the stock market.  Looks like the steam generated by the stimulus is going quickly.

[tagimaucia]

.

[libertpaulian]

Did USC Dornsife also detect Trump's last-minute surge after the Comey Letter?

[tagimaucia]

I think it shows Hillary’s steepest decline actually happening just before the Comey letter, which lines up with this analysis: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/08/upshot/a-2016-review-theres-reason-to-be-skeptical-of-a-comey-effect.html

[wbrocks67]

Probabilistic
Biden 53.0 (+0.3)
Trump 40.8 (-0.4)

Traditional
Biden 55.2 (+0.6)
Trump 39.7 (-0.1)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1304294698589335552

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1304294698589335552

Probablistic
Biden 52.7 (-0.3)
Trump 41.1 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 54.8 (-0.4)
Trump 39.8 (+0.1)

[wbrocks67]

Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)

Can someone explain in layman's terms the difference between the two methodologies?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic
Biden 52.7 (-0.1)
Trump 41.1 (+0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (n/c)
Trump 40.5 (+0.5)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)

Can someone explain in layman's terms the difference between the two methodologies?

If I'm interpreting the methodology document correctly, the key differences are as follows:
 - Probablistic questioning differs in that it starts by requesting respondents to estimate (in percentage terms) the chance that they will vote and, given that they will vote, the chance that they will vote for Trump, Biden or "someone else" (the three options given). It incorporates these into its likely voter weightings (which depend on other factors shared by the traditional voting weightings)

 - Traditional questioning prompts for Biden, Trump, Hawkins, Jorgensen, undecided or "would not vote" (instead of asking voters to give the chance that they'll vote for a candidate, they simply incorporate voters who lean towards a given candidate or list themselves as completely undecided). It then removes people who responded "would not vote" to generate the sample's final results.

My guess is that prompting for "someone else" leads to more inflation of the third party vote than prompting for Hawkins and Jorgensen, even though doing the latter is likely to suggest higher polling numbers for them than those which will actually manifest on election day. Traditional voting also probably doesn't take into account just how strongly "leaners" lean towards a given candidate (beyond the crude "definitely voting for X/leaning towards X" divide).

[Adam Griffin]

Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)

Can someone explain in layman's terms the difference between the two methodologies?

Best I can tell, "probabilistic" only features the two major candidates, asks how likely they are to vote in November & asks how people will vote in November, while "traditional" includes Libertarian and Green candidates & only asks how they would vote if the election were held today. Probabilistic seems more relevant to me based on balance.

Probabilistic

What is the percent chance that you will vote in the presidential election? (0-100%)

If you do vote in the election, what is the percent chance you will vote for Joe Biden (Democrat), Donald Trump (Republican), Someone else? (Answers add to 100%)

Traditional

If the election were being held today, would you vote for: Joe Biden (Democrat), Donald Trump (Republican), Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), Howie Hawkins (Green), Undecided, Would not vote in the election. Undecided are asked: As of now, do you lean more toward voting for Joe Biden (Democrat), Donald Trump (Republican), Someone else, Do not lean toward any candidate.

https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php?r=eNpLtDKyqi62MrFSKkhMT1WyLrYyNAeyS5NyMpP1UhJLEvUSU1Ly80ASQDWJKZkpIKaxlZKJgZGSdS1cMGzwEts

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic
Biden 51.7 (-1)
Trump 42 (+0.9)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (-1.5)
Trump 41.8 (+1.3)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Probablistic
Biden 51.7 (-1)
Trump 42 (+0.9)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (-1.5)
Trump 41.8 (+1.3)

[wbrocks67]

It appears that we get these few blips here and there and then generally it comes back down to a 9/10 pt Biden lead

[Horus]

Looks as though there's been a trend towards Trump over the past few days. Had a feeling the woodward tape would counterintuitively help him, he was "trying to keep us safe and calm" they'll say.

[Pericles]

Looks as though there's been a trend towards Trump over the past few days. Had a feeling the woodward tape would counterintuitively help him, he was "trying to keep us safe and calm" they'll say.

Pretty much all trends in this election are illusions.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Snippy-Snip!

"When Trump is up by six points in Virginia with 85% of precincts reporting"

[BobbieMac]

Looks as though there's been a trend towards Trump over the past few days. Had a feeling the woodward tape would counterintuitively help him, he was "trying to keep us safe and calm" they'll say.

The trend being he cant get over 43% in a USC poll.

[republican1993]

Probablistic
Biden 51.7 (-1)
Trump 42 (+0.9)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (-1.5)
Trump 41.8 (+1.3)

LET'S GO TRUMP!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It appears that we get these few blips here and there and then generally it comes back down to a 9/10 pt Biden lead

I'd have to go back and check to verify this (which I'm not really motivated to do) but it seems like the margin usually widens a bit going into the weekend and then closes again on Monday/Tuesday.  Perhaps this is due to variation in the rolling subsamples.

[wbrocks67]

And we're pretty much back to where it was pre-conventions again

Probabilistic
Biden 51.3 (-0.4)
Trump 42.4 (+0.4)

Traditionall
Biden 52.0 (-0.
Trump 42.2 (+0.4)

[VAR]

Probabilistic:

Biden 50.3% (-1.0)
Trump 43.2% (+1)

Traditional:

Biden 50.4% (-1.6)
Trump 43.4% (+1.2)

[wbrocks67]

Probabilistic:

Biden 50.3% (-1.0)
Trump 43.2% (+1)

Traditional:

Biden 50.4% (-1.6)
Trump 43.4% (+1.2)

If we keep swinging 3% in a day....