USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has anyone bothered to compute the two-week average (which I guess would just be the average of today and 7 days ago)?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic:
Biden 51.1% (+0.4)
Trump 41.8% (-0.3)

Traditional:
Biden 52.3% (+0.7)
Trump 41.7% (-0.5)

[wbrocks67]

We're oscillating, folks!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

[Brittain33]

We're oscillating, folks!

This is so funny to watch after it was predicted. What a screw-up.

[wbrocks67]

We're oscillating, folks!

This is so funny to watch after it was predicted. What a screw-up.

Right? What are we to do though to get a good sample? Just average the two 14-day samples together?

[Person Man]

Or even just compare where we were 14 days ago. This is that sort of "panel" right?

[tagimaucia]

So I guess we’ll be in the pro-Biden half of the sample on election day, right? (6 weeks plus 2 days)

Hopefully they'll at least have the decency to cram everyone in the panel into their final 7 day sample before the election.

[wbrocks67]

Or even just compare where we were 14 days ago. This is that sort of "panel" right?

9/20: Biden 52, Trump 42
9/06: Biden 52, Trump 41
8/23: Biden 53, Trump 41

[BobbieMac]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

[The Other Castro]

Why we will be adding a 14-day average graphic:
To have a demographically balanced sample across the observation period for every 14-day tracking poll wave, each participant in our survey panel has the option to respond to questions during a specific range of days, twice a month.

Our 7-day graphics represent opinions from half our respondents, recorded each day and including responses from the previous 7 days. Due to random variations in who responds each day, the 7-day graphic has been subject to a certain level of periodicity. Our goal for this graphic was to have it more nimbly reflect reactions to news events than it could if the full 14 day wave was included in each data point. We will continue showing this graphic, but we will soon also add a graphic that is based on averages across a full 14-day sample each day.

[Hope For A New Era]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

[Brittain33]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

That's interesting. 413 is where Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas have all fallen to the Dems. I suppose the reason why there's a big spike is because Biden can win several more D points beyond that and no other states will fall for a long time - not until really unlikely states like SC and MT.

[Tintrlvr]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

That's interesting. 413 is where Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas have all fallen to the Dems. I suppose the reason why there's a big spike is because Biden can win several more D points beyond that and no other states will fall for a long time - not until really unlikely states like SC and MT.

Right - I think 413 is the very likely EV total for any range of popular vote outcomes from Biden+10 or so nationally all the way until you're approaching Biden+20.

[Gass3268]

Why we will be adding a 14-day average graphic:
To have a demographically balanced sample across the observation period for every 14-day tracking poll wave, each participant in our survey panel has the option to respond to questions during a specific range of days, twice a month.

Our 7-day graphics represent opinions from half our respondents, recorded each day and including responses from the previous 7 days. Due to random variations in who responds each day, the 7-day graphic has been subject to a certain level of periodicity. Our goal for this graphic was to have it more nimbly reflect reactions to news events than it could if the full 14 day wave was included in each data point. We will continue showing this graphic, but we will soon also add a graphic that is based on averages across a full 14-day sample each day.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1308103796845936640?s=20

[Brittain33]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

That's interesting. 413 is where Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas have all fallen to the Dems. I suppose the reason why there's a big spike is because Biden can win several more D points beyond that and no other states will fall for a long time - not until really unlikely states like SC and MT.

Right - I think 413 is the very likely EV total for any range of popular vote outcomes from Biden+10 or so nationally all the way until you're approaching Biden+20.

Oh, I see, “proposed several times here” implies my post isn’t a new epiphany.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Using the two-week sample in this post.

Probablistic:
Biden 51.4% (n/c)
Trump 41.9% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52.4% (-0.1)
Trump 41.7% (-0.1)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Using the two-week sample in this post.

Probablistic:
Biden 51.4% (n/c)
Trump 41.9% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52.4% (-0.1)
Trump 41.7% (-0.1)

This version has made the poll one of the most stable out there.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic:
Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.1% (+0.2)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (-0.3)
Trump 42% (+0.3)

[wbrocks67]

Probablistic:
Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.1% (+0.2)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (-0.3)
Trump 42% (+0.3)

Now I'm confused though, Biden is exploding again (as expected) in the 7-day window, so why is he dropping in the 14 day window?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probabilistic:
Biden 51.2% (-0.1)
Trump 42.2% (+0.1)

Traditional:
Biden 51.9% (-0.2)
Trump 42% (n/c)

[Dr. Arch]

5,377 LV, Panel Sept. 14-24

Biden: 52 (+10)
Trump: 42

MoE: ±3.5%?

Full Release Here

-Joe gains a point from the last 14-day update

[Podgy the Bear]

Excellent!  Thank you for giving today's numbers.

[President Johnson]

There is a megathread for their tracking polls. The thread just moved to the end of the page with all these polls from today.

[Dr. Arch]

There is a megathread for their tracking polls. The thread just moved to the end of the page with all these polls from today.

Ah!