USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[LimoLiberal]

Probabilistic:

Biden 50.3% (-1.0)
Trump 43.2% (+1)

Traditional:

Biden 50.4% (-1.6)
Trump 43.4% (+1.2)

Here we go...

[republican1993]

And we're pretty much back to where it was pre-conventions again

Probabilistic
Biden 51.3 (-0.4)
Trump 42.4 (+0.4)

Traditionall
Biden 52.0 (-0.
Trump 42.2 (+0.4)

i'm interested to see if he stalls at this 43% level or keeps rising def an interesting poll to watch over the next few days.

[wbrocks67]

Probabilistic:
Biden 50.2 (-0.1)
Trump 43.5 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 50.0 (-0.4)
Trump 43.7 (+0.3)

They haven't provided crosstabs, so we don't know if they have another single black guy skewing the results again. But, I have no idea what's going on with this. This has been particularly swingy, and Biden was +15 here a week ago, and now he's +6? Doesn't make much sense.

[Umengus]

Probabilistic:
Biden 50.2 (-0.1)
Trump 43.5 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 50.0 (-0.4)
Trump 43.7 (+0.3)

They haven't provided crosstabs, so we don't know if they have another single black guy skewing the results again. But, I have no idea what's going on with this. This has been particularly swingy, and Biden was +15 here a week ago, and now he's +6? Doesn't make much sense.

it was bad in 2016, bad again with Biden +15 so it's a bad firm

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1306559815276208128

Some insight into why these numbers seem arbitrary.

[tagimaucia]

Sigh. This could be a valuable poll if it was run better but the people in charge of it seem to be incapable of not making stupid methodological decisions from year to year. The oscillating nature should have maybe been obvious but at first it seem to line up perfectly with the conventions and where you would expect bounces to be so it fooled me. Lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, much for Rassy tracking poll of Trump plus 1. an officeholder who never held public office should never be Prez every again, Officeholders have learned the art of negotiation and the only package outside budgeting Trump has pass was the Wall and Tax cuts for millionaires. Nixon with the EPA and Bush W with minimum wage compromised with Dems,

As Senate is still deadlocked on stimulus Senate leadership is voting on judges, that Leader McConnell obstructed Garland anyways

[DaleCooper]

Sigh. This could be a valuable poll if it was run better but the people in charge of it seem to be incapable of not making stupid methodological decisions from year to year. The oscillating nature should have maybe been obvious but at first it seem to line up perfectly with the conventions and where you would expect bounces to be so it fooled me. Lol.

Yeah, I didn't notice it either, but once you see it on a graph and get a window into the methodology it becomes obvious. I guess we'll see in about a week if it reverts back to what its higher numbers were. Based on this, however, I definitely don't plan on trying to base any assumptions on this poll.

[wbrocks67]

Welp, that explains a lot. Also explains why we've gone from Biden lead to Biden low to Biden lead to Biden low in perfect sync.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had noticed an oscillation but guessed it was some kind of midweek vs weekend effect.  With this explanation it's a lot clearer what's happening.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic:
Biden 50.3% (+0.1)
Trump 42.7% (-0.8 )

Traditional:
Biden 49.8% (-0.2%)
Trump 43.3% (-0.4%)

[Person Man]

Beginning to oscillate as predicted.

[Skill and Chance]

Beginning to oscillate as predicted.

Biden +14 here we come! LOL

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probablistic
Biden 50.1% (-0.1)
Trump 42.7% (n/c)

Traditional
Biden 50.7% (+0.9)
Trump 43.2% (-0.1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

USC tracking is same as Trafalgar,  they over sample top many partisans, Biden is gonna win 291-247, winning PVI by 3.5 not 8 or 9 or 14

[VAR]

Probablistic
Biden 50.7% (+0.6)
Trump 42.1% (-0.6)

Traditional
Biden 51.6% (+0.9)
Trump 42.2% (-1.0)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Probablistic
Biden 50.7% (+0.6)
Trump 42.1% (-0.6)

Traditional
Biden 51.6% (+0.9)
Trump 42.2% (-1.0)

I guess now is the turn of the Democratic half of the panel.

[wbrocks67]

I guess the one brightside here is that even when the panel gets more R-skewing, Biden's lead is still +6/7 at its lowest.

[Podgy the Bear]

Is this Biden bump a response to the passing of RBG?

[Person Man]

How does this compare to 2 weeks ago?

[wbrocks67]

How does this compare to 2 weeks ago?

Traditional 9/5: Biden 51, Trump 42
Traditional 9/19: Biden 52, Trump 42

LOL

[tagimaucia]

Probabilistic:

8/22:  Biden +10.8
9/5:    Biden +7.8
9/19:  Biden +8.7

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So I guess we’ll be in the pro-Biden half of the sample on election day, right? (6 weeks plus 2 days)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So I guess we’ll be in the pro-Biden half of the sample on election day, right? (6 weeks plus 2 days)

Ye

[Lief 🗽]

I feel like this is a cool idea for a poll but every cycle they screw it up somehow (the heavily over-weighted Trump supporting black kid from 2016, the bifurcation of the panel causing predictable swings this year). Maybe in 2024 they'll get it right!