USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[wbrocks67]

The poll that actually had Trump winning by 2/3 pts near the end in 2016 is baaackkk and has Biden winning by 11.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1296085937642971136/photo/1

[Sir Mohamed]

The poll that actually had Trump winning by 2/3 pts near the end in 2016 is baaackkk and has Biden winning by 11.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1296085937642971136/photo/1

This is the Tweet:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1296085937642971136


Anyways, good poll for Biden that lines up with other national polling between Biden +6 and Biden +12

[Horus]

Trump's approval has undoubtedly gone up over the past few days but horserace numbers appear steady. Good poll for Biden here.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval has undoubtedly gone up over the past few days but horserace numbers appear steady. Good poll for Biden here.

Eh that's debatable. Morning Consult and YouGov showing steady #s so could just be a blip inside the MoE

[Person Man]

In this polarized environment, Trump has gone from 40% to 42% but I just think its because we are close to the election. Same thing happened in 2018.

[Person Man]

They had Trump stable around 3 or 4 I thought. At this poll's worst, he was at -1.

[ON Progressive]

Guess that 19 year old (well, 23 now) black Trump supporter from Chicago isn’t on the poll anymore

[Person Man]

Guess that 19 year old (well, 23 now) black Trump supporter from Chicago isn’t on the poll anymore

Well, because of Biden, he ain't black. Sorry. Couldn't resist.

[Person Man]

Now this is interesting

JAN 15-28, 2020
B/C
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
4,869   RV   Biden   
49%
40%
Trump   Biden   +9


Leads me to believe there has been little change in the campaign inspite of everything. Basically there's been no change to the political situation in the last 2 years. If this is where Trump will always poll (stuck at 46%), Hillary underperformed by like 6 points but I imagine about half of it was because of party fatigue.

[BobbieMac]

Wow the legend that is USC/LA Times is back! I cant believe they have Biden+11, have they completely overhauled their polling methodology?

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to Nate Cohn, they have many of the same panelists as they did in 2016.

[BobbieMac]

According to Nate Cohn, they have many of the same panelists as they did in 2016.

Big if true, because this would pretty much prove the double digit swing to Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt winning by 11 if TX isnt in plays, and he is still very much the underdog in TX, he would win by 6 or 7

[Gass3268]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

[DaleCooper]

Those 2016 3rd party and 2016 non-voter numbers are essential to understanding Biden's lead.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1296085937642971136

Those numbers are eye-opening stuff.

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1296085937642971136

Those numbers are eye-opening stuff.

There were something like 14 million voters in the 2018 midterms who didn't vote at all in 2016, IIRC.  That number will obviously be even higher in 2020 (relative to 2016).  That's why Trump can't just cling on to his 2016 voters IMO.  He has to expand his standing with people who *did* vote in 2016 at least a bit to have any shot at winning.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

[Person Man]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

What about the Asian Hornets?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

What about the Asian Hornets?

Silver is "tinkering with things" and "will have details sometime by Thursday". 

[Person Man]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

What about the Asian Hornets?

Silver is "tinkering with things" and "will have details sometime by Thursday". 

No one needs to know about him "tinkering with things"!

[wbrocks67]

I think 538 hasn't added it yet b/c we don't know the topline. They haven't put anything on their website that says exactly what the totals are for Biden and Trump

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

Do you mean the Honeybadger-Uncertainty-Factor?

[Alben Barkley]

Trump's approval has undoubtedly gone up over the past few days but horserace numbers appear steady. Good poll for Biden here.

No, it’s pretty doubtable. His average approval rating remains within its typical range. No reason to believe any movement isn’t just noise at this point.