USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26454 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 19, 2020, 09:08:48 AM »
The poll that actually had Trump winning by 2/3 pts near the end in 2016 is baaackkk and has Biden winning by 11.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2020, 09:12:39 AM »
Quote from: Horus on August 19, 2020, 09:10:48 AM
Trump's approval has undoubtedly gone up over the past few days but horserace numbers appear steady. Good poll for Biden here.

Eh that's debatable. Morning Consult and YouGov showing steady #s so could just be a blip inside the MoE
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2020, 01:44:26 PM »
I think 538 hasn't added it yet b/c we don't know the topline. They haven't put anything on their website that says exactly what the totals are for Biden and Trump
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2020, 05:48:06 AM »
Yay it's back. It would appear that there was a little bit of a post-DNC bump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2020, 06:31:08 AM »
RCP may include it, its possible they just didnt update yet.

Also is Soaring Eagle a russian bot or
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2020, 08:28:49 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 31, 2020, 08:09:57 AM


Yeah, I mean considering the sample is now literally ALL of the RNC and we've seen no bump whatsoever, so...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2020, 05:00:33 PM »
Just bumping this b/c people really out here yelling tightening when this thing has been steady for over a week now, and the polling period is all including the RNC.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 04:59:17 AM »
Probabilistic: Biden 51, Trump 43
Traditional: Biden 51, Trump 42

Pretty much settling into the same +8-ish everyone is seeing
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2020, 05:00:22 AM »
Probabilistic:
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 42 (-1)

Traditional:
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 41 (-1)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2020, 05:03:12 AM »
Probabilistic
Biden 52.2 (+0.7)
Trump 42.0 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (+1.0)
Trump 40.8 (-0.6)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2020, 04:59:24 AM »
Wowzers. Wonder if this is just the RNC falling off or a direct result of Trump's military comments. This tracker was pretty good at least in 2016 of noticing bumps in news.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2020, 05:11:18 AM »
Probabilistic
Biden 53.0 (+0.3)
Trump 40.8 (-0.4)

Traditional
Biden 55.2 (+0.6)
Trump 39.7 (-0.1)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2020, 07:49:50 AM »
Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2020, 05:13:36 AM »
It appears that we get these few blips here and there and then generally it comes back down to a 9/10 pt Biden lead
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2020, 04:57:38 AM »
And we're pretty much back to where it was pre-conventions again

Probabilistic
Biden 51.3 (-0.4)
Trump 42.4 (+0.4)

Traditionall
Biden 52.0 (-0.Cool
Trump 42.2 (+0.4)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2020, 05:14:14 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 16, 2020, 05:11:53 AM
Probabilistic:

Biden 50.3% (-1.0)
Trump 43.2% (+1)

Traditional:

Biden 50.4% (-1.6)
Trump 43.4% (+1.2)

If we keep swinging 3% in a day....
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2020, 04:59:36 AM »
Probabilistic:
Biden 50.2 (-0.1)
Trump 43.5 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 50.0 (-0.4)
Trump 43.7 (+0.3)

They haven't provided crosstabs, so we don't know if they have another single black guy skewing the results again. But, I have no idea what's going on with this. This has been particularly swingy, and Biden was +15 here a week ago, and now he's +6? Doesn't make much sense.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2020, 08:05:13 AM »
Welp, that explains a lot. Also explains why we've gone from Biden lead to Biden low to Biden lead to Biden low in perfect sync.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2020, 08:17:35 AM »
I guess the one brightside here is that even when the panel gets more R-skewing, Biden's lead is still +6/7 at its lowest.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2020, 08:34:20 AM »

Traditional 9/5: Biden 51, Trump 42
Traditional 9/19: Biden 52, Trump 42

LOL
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2020, 05:31:31 AM »
We're oscillating, folks!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2020, 06:03:33 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on September 21, 2020, 05:57:56 AM

This is so funny to watch after it was predicted. What a screw-up.

Right? What are we to do though to get a good sample? Just average the two 14-day samples together?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2020, 06:48:58 AM »
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on September 21, 2020, 06:38:09 AM
Or even just compare where we were 14 days ago. This is that sort of "panel" right?

9/20: Biden 52, Trump 42
9/06: Biden 52, Trump 41
8/23: Biden 53, Trump 41
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2020, 05:11:46 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 23, 2020, 05:10:15 AM
Probablistic:
Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.1% (+0.2)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (-0.3)
Trump 42% (+0.3)

Now I'm confused though, Biden is exploding again (as expected) in the 7-day window, so why is he dropping in the 14 day window?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2020, 10:37:12 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 07:16:06 AM
Probablistic:

Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.6% (+0.1)

Traditional:

Biden 52.1% (n/c)
Trump 42.2% (-0.1)

This thing has been steady as a rock for since its inception if you base it off of their new updated 14 day rolling average
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