USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
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  USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26484 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: August 19, 2020, 01:23:02 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 19, 2020, 11:01:32 AM
Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2020, 02:38:01 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 19, 2020, 01:30:54 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 19, 2020, 01:23:02 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 19, 2020, 11:01:32 AM
Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

Do you mean the Honeybadger-Uncertainty-Factor?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2020, 05:40:21 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 11:20:33 AM by Senator YE »
https://election.usc.edu/

Biden     53
Trump    40
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2020, 05:44:35 AM »
53-41 today.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2020, 05:10:34 AM »
54-40 today. I guess we are still seeing Biden's post-convention bounce since the sample is between 23-29 August.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2020, 06:25:25 PM »
Quote from: tagimaucia on August 30, 2020, 03:23:50 PM
Just found this.  Back in 2016, this economist constantly reweighted the 2016 LAT/USC poll based on the American Community Survey and other demographic data.  Not only did his "reweighted" version come within 0.2% of the final margin on Election Day 2018 (his final margin was Hillary +1.9, the actual was Hillary +2.1), but his estimations basically worked perfectly as a leading indicator of the RCP + other poll aggregates that was ahead of them by a week or a little less.



https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/



Has anyone done it this year?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2020, 05:12:02 AM »
53-41
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2020, 05:05:20 AM »
Quote from: Monstro on September 02, 2020, 04:57:21 AM
Traditional method

Biden    51.3 (-0.6)
Trump    42.0 (+0.4)

Margin    Biden +9.3  (-1)

This is where it was before the DNC. Afterwards it went Biden +15 and now after the RNC it returned to status quo ante.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2020, 11:24:19 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 12, 2020, 07:49:50 AM
Probabilistic
Biden 52.8 (+0.1)
Trump 40.6 (-0.5)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (-0.5)
Trump 40.0 (+0.2)

Can someone explain in layman's terms the difference between the two methodologies?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2020, 05:13:07 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 14, 2020, 04:54:05 AM
Probablistic
Biden 51.7 (-1)
Trump 42 (+0.9)

Traditional
Biden 52.8 (-1.5)
Trump 41.8 (+1.3)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 05:06:46 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 20, 2020, 04:53:01 AM
Probablistic
Biden 50.7% (+0.6)
Trump 42.1% (-0.6)

Traditional
Biden 51.6% (+0.9)
Trump 42.2% (-1.0)

I guess now is the turn of the Democratic half of the panel.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 04:59:54 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 22, 2020, 04:54:31 AM
Using the two-week sample in this post.

Probablistic:
Biden 51.4% (n/c)
Trump 41.9% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 52.4% (-0.1)
Trump 41.7% (-0.1)

This version has made the poll one of the most stable out there.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 05:56:15 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 26, 2020, 04:48:20 AM
Probabilistic: Biden +11.2
Biden 53.6 (+0.4)
Trump 42.3 (-0.3)

Traditional: Biden +12.6
Biden 54.3 (+0.3)
Trump 41.7 (-0.3)

Hunter sex tape bump.
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