USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26477 times)
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #175 on: September 25, 2020, 03:19:47 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on September 25, 2020, 03:18:05 PM
There is a megathread for their tracking polls. The thread just moved to the end of the page with all these polls from today.

Which is why we need daily reporting on this poll.  Especially with 39 days to go.  The flood of numbers would push this to the side.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #176 on: September 25, 2020, 03:22:43 PM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on September 25, 2020, 03:19:47 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on September 25, 2020, 03:18:05 PM
There is a megathread for their tracking polls. The thread just moved to the end of the page with all these polls from today.

Which is why we need daily reporting on this poll.  Especially with 39 days to go.  The flood of numbers would push this to the side.


Can we get a mod to sticky the USC megathread?
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Splash
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« Reply #177 on: September 27, 2020, 11:41:05 AM »
Not much to see here.

Biden: 51%
Trump: 42%

9/13-9/26
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #178 on: September 28, 2020, 07:16:06 AM »
Probablistic:

Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.6% (+0.1)

Traditional:

Biden 52.1% (n/c)
Trump 42.2% (-0.1)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #179 on: September 28, 2020, 10:37:12 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 28, 2020, 07:16:06 AM
Probablistic:

Biden 51.3% (-0.1)
Trump 42.6% (+0.1)

Traditional:

Biden 52.1% (n/c)
Trump 42.2% (-0.1)

This thing has been steady as a rock for since its inception if you base it off of their new updated 14 day rolling average
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #180 on: September 29, 2020, 04:52:58 AM »
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.1% (-0.2)
Trump 42.7% (+0.1)

Traditional:
Biden 51.8% (-0.3)
Trump  42.3% (+0.1)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #181 on: September 30, 2020, 06:05:16 AM »
Probablistic:
Biden 51.1% (n/c)
Trump 42.9% (+0.2)

Traditional:
Biden 51.9% (+0.1)
Trump 42.4% (+0.1)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #182 on: October 01, 2020, 05:29:39 AM »
Probablistic:
Biden 51.1% (n/c)
Trump 42.9% (n/c)

Traditional:
Biden 51.8% (-0.1)
Trump 42.6% (+0.2)
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #183 on: October 01, 2020, 05:40:04 AM »
No movement following the debate
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Rand
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« Reply #184 on: October 01, 2020, 06:10:11 AM »

Poor Donald.
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Dumbo
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« Reply #185 on: October 01, 2020, 07:15:08 AM »
If the lead continues to shrink by 0.2 every day, Biden ends at + 3
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #186 on: October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM »
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #187 on: October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.
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Person Man
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« Reply #188 on: October 02, 2020, 09:15:52 AM »
Quote from: Niemeyerite on October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #189 on: October 02, 2020, 10:23:58 AM »
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on October 02, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
Quote from: Niemeyerite on October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv

There is no evidence Trump is going to significantly improve his national vote, he'll be lucky to get 44%
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Person Man
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« Reply #190 on: October 02, 2020, 12:22:10 PM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on October 02, 2020, 10:23:58 AM
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on October 02, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
Quote from: Niemeyerite on October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv

There is no evidence Trump is going to significantly improve his national vote, he'll be lucky to get 44%
This is what would happen if he kept improving a tenth a day. It’s equally as possible he will be down by 12.
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Horus
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« Reply #191 on: October 03, 2020, 05:03:01 AM »
10/2

Probabilistic:
Biden 51.1% (-0.2)
Trump 43.8% (+0.5)

Traditional:
Biden 51.7% (-0.4)
Trump 43.6% (+0.6)
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Buzz
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« Reply #192 on: October 03, 2020, 08:42:33 AM »
Sympathy/Debate bump
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #193 on: October 03, 2020, 08:52:32 AM »

Statistic noise I think.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #194 on: October 03, 2020, 09:03:25 AM »
Or in a 7-8 Biden lead world an occasional 5-6 poll is expected
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #195 on: October 03, 2020, 09:08:40 AM »
Don't forget it's a 14-day rolling average.  Nate Cohn made the point earlier today:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #196 on: October 03, 2020, 09:36:58 AM »

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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #197 on: October 03, 2020, 09:55:48 AM »
Where is Monstro?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #198 on: October 03, 2020, 03:09:51 PM »
Lol jk, Biden up 10:
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #199 on: October 03, 2020, 03:20:17 PM »
Damn, hopefully the freshman Statistics 101 students at USC who messed this up don't get a failing grade now! Sad
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